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Some comments on Gray's forecast

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  • Pawnfart
    BTW, thanks B-1 for the solar forecasts. Interesting how yesterday there was a big flaring and very little tropical stuff to talk about. It seems like after
    Message 1 of 702 , Oct 2, 2001
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      BTW, thanks B-1 for the solar forecasts.
      Interesting how yesterday there was a big flaring and very
      little tropical stuff to talk about. It seems like after
      flaring activity has settled, then we get the storms,
      much like a redistribution is occurring. I was
      thinking about that and it occurred to me that one of the
      things Dr. Gray said about this year is because of the
      salinity levels on the surface he expected a strong year
      for hurricanes as the "salt pump" would bring up more
      tropical water north. What occurred to me was higher
      salinity also has electrical implications in that warmer
      salty water is more conductive. Therefore, the way that
      electrical energy is both collected and distributed is
      altered--and this may mean more or less hurricanes, but I
      would suspect perhaps LESS, because if the energy is
      distributed further north then you won't have as great of a
      chance of seeing tropical convection match with
      electrical cirrus enhancement in a concentrated manner, nor
      necessarily see cold patches feeding in frontal contrasts
      that can be enhanced by that cirrus.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1 9:47 PM
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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