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Solar Activity Report for 10/01/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** S-2 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The past couple of days have been very interesting. The two CME s that
    Message 1 of 702 , Oct 1, 2001
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      ** S-2 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **<br>**
      Aurora Watch In Effect **<br><br>The past couple of days
      have been very interesting. The two CME's that erupted
      off of the sun on 9/29 impacted the Earth's
      magnetosphere today. The geomagnetic field was already active
      due to a south-pointing IMF. The arrival of the CME's
      triggered a G-2 class geomagnetic storm in the wee hours of
      the morning, and also aurora! Aurora have been
      sighted as far south as Washington state. See the
      following link for some beautiful aorora pictures :
      <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01oct01.html target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01oct01.html</a> More aurora could be forthcoming tonight, so keep
      an eye out after local midnight.<br><br>In other
      solar news, a powerful M9.1 flare erupted today off of
      sunspot group 9628, causing an S-2 solar radiation storm.
      It also generated a large, bright, if somewhat
      lopsided CME. The bulk of the CME appears to be directed
      away from Earth, but there is at least a partial halo
      component to it. If we get a glancing blow from it, it
      should be some time in the next 24 to 48 hours. See this
      link for a short movie of the CME as captured by the
      SOHO satellite coronagraph.
      <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/images2001/01oct01/cme_c3_big.gif target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/images2001/01oct01/cme_c3_big.gif</a><br><br>While sunspot group 9628 is close to rotating over the
      western limb of the solar disk, several others remain a
      source for more strong flares, namely 9632, 9636, and
      9637.<br><br>The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are
      :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number : 289<br>SFI : 217<br>A index :
      37<br>K index : 3<br><br>Solar wind speed : 287.4
      km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 0.6 protons/cc<br>Solar wind
      pressure : 0.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.8 nT<br>IMF Orientation
      : 1.9 nT South<br><br>Conditions for the last 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity was high. The geomagnetic
      field was at unsettled to major storm levels. A minor
      geomagnetic storm began at 0900 UT on 01 Oct. A major flare
      occurred at 0515 utc on 1 Oct. A satellite proton event
      began at 0255 utc on 1 Oct A polar cap absorption event
      is in progress.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity will be moderate to high. The
      geomagnetic field will be at unsettled to minor storm levels.
      A proton event is expected to
      continue.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected
      to remain at moderate to high levels. Isolated
      M-class flares are probable. The is also a chance for a
      major flare from Region 9632 (S21W73) as it begins to
      exit the disk.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast
      :<br>The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at
      unsettled to minor storm levels for the next two days due
      to CME effects. Mostly unsettled conditions are
      expected on the final day of forecast. The greater than 10
      MeV proton event is expected to continue through most
      of the forecast period.<br><br>Recent solar flare
      activity :<br>01-Oct-2001 0515Z M9.1 <br>30-Sep-2001 2136Z
      M1.2 <br>30-Sep-2001 1141Z M1.0
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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