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Solar Activity Report for 9/29/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The sun fired off a pair of CME s Friday morning in rapid succession. While
    Message 1 of 702 , Sep 29, 2001
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      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **<br>**
      Aurora Watch In Effect **<br><br>The sun fired off a
      pair of CME's Friday morning in rapid succession.
      While neither was squarely Earth-directed, at least one
      of them appears to have had at least a partial halo
      component to it, and we could receive a glancing blow from
      it sometime Sunday. Sometimes when 2 or more CME's
      hit Earth in rapid succession, bright aurora can be
      the result. Skywatchers in the middle and hight
      latitudes should keep an eye out after local midnight in
      the days ahead. Meanwhile, the solar wind speed
      remains elevated due to a coronal hole that crossed the
      sun's central meridian late last week. The geomagnetic
      field has remained mostly at the active level as a
      result. Sunspot regions 9628 and 9632 continue to produce
      M-class flares, and both of them are capable of producing
      a major flare.<br><br>The current solar and
      geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
      233<br>SFI : 240<br>A index : 21<br>K index : 3<br><br>Solar
      wind speed : 551.6 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 3.2
      protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.8 nPa<br><br>IMF : 13.4
      nT<br>IMF Orientation : 1.0 nT North<br><br>Condiotions for
      the last 24 hours :<br>Solar activity was moderate.
      The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm
      levels. A satellite proton event began at 1215 UTC on 24
      September.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be
      moderate to high. The geomagnetic field will be at
      unsettled to minor storm levels. A proton event is expected
      to continue.<br><br>Solar activity forecast
      :<br>Solar activity is expected to be predominantly moderate
      over the next three days. Isolated major flares are
      possible, particularly from Region 9628 and nearby Region
      9632 (S18W48).<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast
      :<br>The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly
      active for the next two days, under the combined
      influence of high speed stream effects and possible
      transient shock passages from the CME activity of 28
      September. Isolated minor storm conditions may occur at
      higher latitudes during this period. Today's CME
      activity may further result in additional shock passage
      effects on day three. The proton event in progress is
      expected to end within the next 24 to 36 hours, barring
      further enhancement from any major flares.<br><br>Recent
      solar flare activity :<br>29-Sep-2001 1106Z M1.8
      <br>28-Sep-2001 2125Z M1.2 <br>28-Sep-2001 1926Z M1.0
      <br>28-Sep-2001 1014Z M2.4 <br>28-Sep-2001 0830Z M3.3
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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