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Solar activity report for 9/19/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** M-class flares continue to be produced with regularity from a trio of sunspot groups. 9616 and 9620 are two of the likely
    Message 1 of 702 , Sep 19, 2001
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **<br><br>M-class
      flares continue to be produced with regularity from a
      trio of sunspot groups. 9616 and 9620 are two of the
      likely suspects. New on the scene is sunspot group 9628,
      a fairly large sunspot group just now rotating over
      the eastern limb of the solar disk. It has a complex
      magnetic field and has a chance of producing a major flare
      in the days ahead. The CME from the dissapearing
      filament and associated flare of 9/17 is due to arrive
      sometime in the next 24 hours, thus the aurora watch.
      Strong high-latitude geomagnetic activity is a
      possibility.<br><br>The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are
      :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number : 224<br>SFI : 199<br>A index :
      8<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar wind speed : 359.9
      km/sec<br>Soalr wind density : 2.9 protons/cc<br>Solar wind
      pressure : 0.7 nPa<br><br>IMF : 3.0 nT<br>IMF Orientation
      : 1.0 nT North<br><br>Conditions for the last 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity was low. The geomagnetic
      field was quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Forecast for the
      next 24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be low to
      moderate. The geomagnetic field will be quiet to
      unsettled.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar forecast is expected
      to be low to moderate. Region 9628 (S18E64), 9620
      (N12E30) and 9616 (S13W24) all have the potential to
      produce M-Class flares. Region 9628 also has a slight
      possibility of producing a major flare.<br><br>Geomagnetic
      activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic activity is expected to
      be quiet to unsettled on the first day, increasing
      to unsettled to active levels on the second and
      third day due to an expected CME passage<br><br>Recent
      solar flare activity :<br>18-Sep-2001 1707Z M1.4
      <br>18-Sep-2001 1552Z M1.0 <br>18-Sep-2001 1538Z M1.3
      <br>18-Sep-2001 0008Z M1.4 <br>17-Sep-2001 2146Z M1.0
      <br>17-Sep-2001 2108Z M1.0 <br>17-Sep-2001 1550Z M8.1
      <br>17-Sep-2001 0825Z M1.5
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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