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Mitch II update/ozone link

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  • Pawnfart
    Here is, BTW, an interesting link on the ozone hole:
    Message 1 of 702 , Sep 18, 2001
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      Here is, BTW, an interesting link on the ozone
      hole:<br><br><a href=http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast17sep_1.htm?list68077 target=new>http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast17sep_1.htm?list68077</a><br><br><br>How does the massive dams on the Orinoco play with a
      prediction for another Mitch, with 98 being a good flaring
      event analogy year for this year? What a dam does is
      delay sed and flow, or put another way, delays when
      methane hydrate fields are insulating charge seperations
      the most effectively. Thus, in the Carribean basin, a
      charge seperation can be better maintained later in the
      hurricane season. Why is that more dangerous for a massive
      storm like Mitch, especially in the context of what
      flaring does? Well, flaring causes changes in cirrus
      behavior independant of the oceans. Because hurricanes are
      so dependant on ocean temperatures and electrical
      conditions, this independance makes formation much less
      likely to occur. But because flaring and ionospheric
      induction becomes less likely in the Northern Hemisphere as
      the angles which particles and radiation hits the
      earth become steeper with the winter, the later fall
      becomes better for a Mitch like storm to occur--provided,
      of course, SSTs are warm and there is a charge
      seperation and that charge is insulated. And it turns out
      that a delay in insulation from a later sed and flow
      rate caused by the Orinoco dams does exactly this--and
      increases the probablity of such a storm, particularly when
      early in the season there has been strong flaring
      activity to keep the region's waters warm.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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