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Solar activity report for 9/17/01

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  • b1blancer_29501
    Sunspot groups 9608 and 9616 heve been living up to their advertising, producing a series of M-class flares over the last 2 days, the most strongest being a
    Message 1 of 702 , Sep 17 9:45 PM
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      Sunspot groups 9608 and 9616 heve been living up
      to their advertising, producing a series of M-class
      flares over the last 2 days, the most strongest being a
      powerful M8.1. 9608 has almost rotated over the western
      limb of the solar disk, but 9616 is right on the
      central meridian. A collapsing filament near this sunspot
      group fired off a large, bright CME earlier today. The
      bulk of the CME appears to be directed away from
      Earth, but there was a faint full-halo component to it.
      It is likely to arrive here the 19th or the 20th.
      The Earth is also passing through a high-speed solar
      wind stream caused by a coronal hole which crossed the
      sun's central meridian a few days ago.<br><br>The
      current solar and geomagnetic conditions are
      :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number : 159<br>SFI : 199<br>A index :
      12<br>K index : 2<br><br>Solar wind speed : 476.5
      km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 5.5 protons/cc<br>Solar wind
      pressure : 1.9 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.3 nT<br>IMF Orientation
      : 3.4 nT North<br><br>Conditions for the last 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity was high. The geomagnetic
      field was quiet to unsettled. A major flare occurred at
      1550 UTC on 17 September.<br><br>Forecast for the next
      24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be moderate to
      high. The geomagnetic field will be quiet to
      unsettled.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected
      to be moderate to high with Region's 9608 and 9616
      still proving to have potential to produce a major
      flare.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>The geomagnetic field is
      expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are
      possible for the next three days as a result of the CME
      activity over the past few days and a recurrent high speed
      stream in the solar wind<br><br>Recent solar flare
      activity :<br>18-Sep-2001 0008Z M1.4 <br>17-Sep-2001 2146Z
      M1.0 <br>17-Sep-2001 2108Z M1.0 <br>17-Sep-2001 1550Z
      M8.1 <br>17-Sep-2001 0825Z M1.5 <br>16-Sep-2001 0353Z
      M5.6
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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