Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Solar Activity Report for 9/12/01

Expand Messages
  • b1blancer_29501
    The sun has been quite active recently, firing off several bright CME s. Sunspot regions 9606, 9607, 9608, 9610, and 9616 all have the potential of producing a
    Message 1 of 702 , Sep 12, 2001
    View Source
    • 0 Attachment
      The sun has been quite active recently, firing
      off several bright CME's. Sunspot regions 9606, 9607,
      9608, 9610, and 9616 all have the potential of
      producing a major flare, and have produced several M-class
      flares between them. One of the CME's appears to be of
      the full-halo variety and is Earth directed.
      Ironically, that one seems to have come from a dissapearing
      filament in a sunspot-free area of the sun. It is due to
      arrive here in the next 24-48 hours. The CME from the
      M-9.5 flare of 9/9 could also be a factor as
      well.<br><br>The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are
      :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number : 228<br>SFI : 235<br>A index :
      14<br>K index : 3<br><br>Solar wind speed : 408.8
      km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 9.2 protons/cc<br>Solar wind
      pressure : 2.5 nPa<br><br>IMF : 10.9 nT<br>IMF Orientation
      : 10.3 nT South<br><br>Conditions for the last 24
      hours :<br>Solar activity was moderate. The geomagnetic
      field was quiet to active.<br><br>Forecast for the next
      24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be moderate to
      high. The geomagnetic field will be quiet to
      active.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected
      to be moderate to high. Regions 9608 (S26W18), 9610
      (S13E05), and 9616 (S11E69) are all potential sources of
      significant flares. Region 9608 is the most complex and
      capable of a major flare.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity
      forecast :<br>The geomagnetic field is expected to range
      from quiet to active with isolated minor storm
      conditions possible through days one and two, in response to
      the disappearing filament activity noted in section
      1A above, along with the remaining possibility of
      some effect from the CME activity of September 9. By
      day three, predominantly quiet to unsettled
      conditions are expected<br><br>Recent solar flare activity
      :<br>12-Sep-2001 0444Z M1.0 <br>11-Sep-2001 2036Z M4.5
      <br>11-Sep-2001 0704Z M1.2 <br>11-Sep-2001 0111Z M2.6
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
      View Source
      • 0 Attachment
        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
      Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.