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Re: Flaring comments

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  • b1blancer_29501
    >I was wondering if you had today s space weather, because I note that Erin was ripped up this last week and today it rises from the dead. I suspect that
    Message 1 of 702 , Sep 6, 2001
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      >I was wondering if you had today's space
      weather, because I note that Erin was ripped up this last
      week and today it rises from the dead. I suspect that
      today the flaring is less . . .<<br><br>Well,
      actually you're right. The last M-class or greater flare
      occurred on 9/5 at 2233Z, that being an M2.2 flare. There
      hasn't been anything larger than a C-class flare since
      then, although there is a high likelyhood there are
      more on the way. Sunspot group 9601, now moving
      towards the western limb of the solar disk, is still a
      threat for more strong flares. Also, within the last
      couple of days, no less than 3 large sunspot groups have
      emerged over the southeastern limb, those being sunspot
      groups 9606 - 9608. Time will tell how they increase or
      descrease in intensity over the days ahead, but for now at
      least their magnetic fields indicate they could be a
      source for M-Class flares.<br><br>If you like, I can
      start posting my solar activity reports in here. I try
      to do them every day, but more often than not I wind
      up missing a day sometimes. I can promise that if a
      major event happens, I will not miss it!
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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