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Re: Biblical floods in North Carolina?

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  • Pawnfart
    This TD we are talking about right now could easily landfall in NC. I pick this year, however, to behave like 1998 due to the high amount of flaring. We had
    Message 1 of 702 , Sep 2, 2001
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      This TD we are talking about right now could
      easily landfall in NC. I pick this year, however, to
      behave like 1998 due to the high amount of flaring. We
      had even more flaring in 1999 then we did in 1998,
      but the rate of increase of the flaring leveled, from
      what I understand. Flaring is interesting because it
      causes cirrus enhancement that is not connected to
      fronts or ocean temperatures or movements, so it is
      cause of ambiant winds ripping apart more organized
      systems. That said, it tends to warm. Last weekend we had
      a massive X-5 flaring event (according to another
      poster on my club, don't ask me what it means), and I
      suspect that we are having less activity now, which is
      probably why TD-6 is doing so well--right after flaring
      when there is warming, and cirrus, but not during
      where the could be shearing. Anyway, 1999 was also
      significant for lack of volcanic activity. That is because
      SOx emissions from volcanoes, like salt on your
      driveway, reduce the phase change temperature of the cirrus
      clouds. Andrew, for instance, was a SOx storm. What that
      meant for NC in 1999 was that when the hurricane came
      ashore, there was more cirrus to maintain convection
      despite landfall, and the storm, unlike Andrew which buzz
      sawed, stalled and flooded. Indeed, cold fronts from the
      north can flow down and cause even more right turning
      winds over the oceans and western induction to flow
      from just off shore and give a storm the stalling
      ability.<br><br>NC is a concern, again, because of the beach erosion
      issues. NC has rivers and huge methane hydrate fields and
      all the things for a storm. It is far enough away
      from the Great Lakes drainage, such that the low
      levels of the GLs shouldn't really impact the methane
      hydrate fields off the NC coast. Indeed, the colder SSTs
      will provide cold air that can drop down and right
      turn west into the storm and cause it to landfall
      there, enhanced. The danger will be, of course, if a low
      draws a storm inland, and this year, like 1999, you can
      expect any storm to stall and flood. The biggest danger
      areas would be at elevations, and there is less chance
      of wind damage with cirrus clouds happy with good
      river flow and lack of SOx.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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