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98 Analogy Year . . . Danielle to Mitch

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  • Pawnfart
    http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/predict.htm For those interested, note that
    Message 1 of 702 , Aug 30, 2001
      <a href=http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/predict.htm target=new>http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/predict.htm</a><br>For those interested, note that flaring is on the
      curve about where it was in 1998, and rising, just like
      that year. With flaring the upper air must reach a
      balance before the SSTs can matter, so given the
      biological response in modulation has to be steady, it is
      fair to say that 1998 may be an analogy year. Dams in
      place now were in place then, particularly in West
      Africa and Orinoco.<br><br>Note from the most recent SST
      anomalies a slight cooling of eastward moving equatorial
      SSTs east of the Amazon to go with the big flaring
      event we had this
      weekend:<br><br><a href=http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.8.21.2001.gif target=new>http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.8.21.2001.gif</a><br><br><a href=http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.8.28.2001.gif target=new>http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.8.28.2001.gif</a><br><br>Also note how close, almost indentical SSTs are
      compared to 1998. Key to it is that very very warm spot
      just to the east of the PCZ in the E
      Pac:<br><br><a href=http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/anomnight.8.29.1998.gif target=new>http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/anomnight.8.29.1998.gif</a><br><br>This wave is consistant w/ Danielle, even if a little
      early. Big concern should be for two storms--Georges
      and, of course, Mitch. Again, these monsters flood and
      stall--because we are NOT in a high SOx
      year.<br><br><a href=http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1998/ target=new>http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1998/</a>
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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