2010 electrics Atlantic tropical storm forecast
- View SourceWarm core systems are over warmer ocean water, and for many climatologists and meteorologists, focusing only on oceans heat content, leave little room for additional discussions or models which involve additional complexity to atmopherics beyond those ocean temperatures.So tropical warm core storms are generally descrived as storms over warmer water and hence have more latent heat to play with. That is, heat that turns ocean water into water vapor. Okay? And then when that water vapor moves to a low pressure area and rises over it, creating the vacuum which produces the low and that air cools as it rises and phase changes back to liquid water or ice water, and you get--'hidden' heat or latent heat coming out in phase change energy. Delta heat it is sometimes called. As this air warms from the latent heat its volume increases, it becomes lighter than the surrounding air about it and it rises explosively. As the storm organizes, the cirrus clouds over it trap infra red heat below it, and the up and down heat engine becomes localized energy--which then contrasts the colder air to the north of a system. Tropical storms are sometimes considered one main way that the sun's energy given to the tropics is distributed to the temperate and poles.
Counterintuitively, sometimes there are huge storms in the temperate zones--cold core zones, when there is nada in the tropics. To be even more complex, sometimes warm core systems travel farthern into the temperate zones. Even though the tropics might have ON FIRE sea surface temperatures. You will never get a climatologist or meteorologist to explain coherantly why storms occur where they do, other than say something like, "It takes colder unstable air over a source of latent heat in order to produce a storm." Say that in an Eddy Murphy mocking voice and it sounds even dumber.
Well, I think there is a clear electrics reason. The electrics reason is that the atmosphere is thinner as you head toward the poles, and that means that the electrical couplings have a much smaller distance to go to cause a field affect on cloud microphysics, and that allows the storm organizations of a cold core system to over come it's lack of available relative latent heat compared to a tropical storm.
What I mean by 'thickness' of the atmosphere is that as you go toward the poles the atmosphere literally becomes thinner. While it is true that cold cores can become warm cores and that the warm cores can exist northwards. However, generally speaking different places around the world compeat for the relatively fixed levels of global lightning--to be a low impedence location for global electrical currents and for electron precipitation to come to rest in steady static fields. A thicker atmosphere means it takes more electrical energy for these coupling events to occur in the tropics even if the tropics have generally more lightning, warmer and therefore more conductive oceans and more latent heat to play with.
Also, since the warmer oceans are highly conductive and organize in a relatively straight line near and about the equator, it's easier with a colder ocean below it for a storm to organize in a center or at a point. That along with coriolis effect causes tropical storms to be very rare right along the equator. Coriolis is often given as the only reason for this.BTW keep in mind that the coriolis affect differs as you go north from the equator. Near the equator it's affect is near zero and that's where there is the 'duldrums'. I think it reaches its max around the level of New York City, if memory serves. Then it drops off again.
Another interesting feature really only explained electrically is the proximaty of storms to the terresphere. Mid Pacific storms are very rare, and again the meteorological explaination is that the storms there experiance greater 'shear', which may be true, but doesn't answer why the shear itself is greater in the middle of the tropical Pacific. Electrically, however, it is very clear that there is more lightning over land, and given the movement of charges affected by distances, and the inverse of the square field strength of electrical fields, the farther away a storm is from powering electrical energies, the less those energies organize a storm. Hence, the mid Pacific is relatively quiet of storms.
Further, in the changing season, the tilt of the earth varies when and where the ionosphere is struck by high freq light, or UV light. This helps the ionosphere produce ozone, or O2 ions. The UV light splits O2 in the upper atmosphere into ions, and these ions then are good at either conducting electrical currents or simply organizing themselves over a storm to set up the static fields required to then change how cloud behaviors, or microphysics behaviors, work. This along with the fact that there is a 'peak' period of lightning first globally on August 15, and in the tropics on October 15, along with the fact that the oceans warm with the season in the northern hemisphere, helps explain why there is actually a bell shaped curve when you can expect tropical storms.
There was a study last year that indicated that tropical storm activity is correlated with relative melting of the Arctic.
The melting is occurring, just like the storm activity, unprecidented, during peak lightning. While there may be some slight let up of of it from 2007 to 2008 and 2009, which I think you can point to a low minimum solar cycle (more on that below), the clear and absolute signal that has persisted is this late summer early fall melting of the Arctic Ice sheet. The anomalies WILL show up again at this time. Like an electric watch.
Conductivity increases, less power does the job better, in a simple model of the earth electrical circuit where Power equals current squared times resistance. That's a derivation from olms law. This is a Very very simple model but it explains quite nicely how the Arctic is really specifically melting when Antarctica really isn't, and how it more specifically is melting during a specific time of year. CO2 is extremely significant in storms where water condensing from water vapor, which is pure water, is highly insulative, wherease water with CO2 in it has ions which makes it 4-10 times more conductive. This water is moving very fast in a circle in tropical storms in the context of massive up and down static fields. The surface, where CO2 was in solution, experiences the low pressures of a tropical storm and its winds and the CO2 comes out of solution and that leads to even LOWER impedences. Hence the affect of CO2 on climate and weather, most is most exemplified during peak lightning. Since there is more land in the northern hemisphere, and most lightning occurs over land, climate change has been greater predictably in the northern hemisphere consistant with this electrical model.
The Arctic melting continues to mean that there isn't really less and less history to make predictions on. In other words we see forecasters looking at past seasons for statistical significance by that so called jar of marbles has been replaced by a mystery jar that no one and I mean no one has ever seen. A melting Arctic is very interesting from an electrical standpoint because it has been occurring exactly when the Atlantic season is peaking and the ice sheet is highly insulating (ice is an insulator) and the exposed salt water is highly conductive. The melt water also is interesting off Greenland, IMHO, as it dilutes the oceans and makes them less conductive. It is for that reason, despite Joe Bastardi's yearly warning based on a storm or two in the 30s, that I think the NE is likely to be spared again, even if the season overall is more active . . . But the Arctic itself continues to be the unknown, and ultimately the source of the most grave danger in climate and weather, premature glacial super storms.
Big new dams
Three Gorge and El Cajon (Mexico) dams. The EPAC season seems to be influenced most remarkably by El Cajon. Early in the season it is likely to be suppressed again, and then later in the season as the dam releases its catchment, storms are actually enhanced. Last year very interesting pattern. Down stream from the sub tropical jet Texas and Mexico had early drought like conditions then later as the catchment was released the largest EPAC storm in 11 years followed, along with flooding in Mexico and Texas.
Some minor blooming SW of New Orleans. Florida, the ocean near Caracus and the Orinoco delta has some blooming activity associated with it.
Drought monitor showing no significant areas of drought where tropical storms might be activity. The Mississippi is flowing well, and the Red River is actually flooding as parts north are cold, plugging up that river as parts south melt and create flow. El Nino has brought needed rain to the Gulf States and the SW.
I know I am not going to add much in the statistical way compared to Phil Klotzbach or William Gray who have used the QBO index for years to predict tropical storm incidence in the Atlantic. Where I might be able to add something to a long range discussion is over mechanism, and from mechanism to where perhaps the QBO would specifically matter and why. And of course I look at it all from the vantage of electrics . . .
"The QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km per month until they are dissipated at the tropical tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found."
If that WIND INDEX is west, it means one thing for tropical storms, if it is east, it means another. Gravity based models almost 50 years old predict a symmetry about the model of the QBO, but indeed in fact the QBO is NOT symmetrical and is sensitive to tropical storms, particularly big ones. And this points directly to electrics.
What's the QBO going to do? It's going to blow from west to east--and that change over point is where we recently had the lowest pressure tropical storm in the Atlantic ever measured--Wilma:
2007 2.61 2.43 1.24 -5.18 -14.07 -21.34 -24.93 -27.41 -28.14 -29.05 -27.61 -19.48
2008 -12.43 -4.70 2.19 6.43 11.53 13.45 13.27 11.63 11.60 11.05 9.13 10.46
2009 10.71 12.33 11.44 9.11 1.56 -5.47 -12.21 -14.45 -13.81 -11.69 -13.83 -15.57
2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00
QBO during the peak of the tropical storm season will have reversed to positive-meaning that there won't be a Wilma like RI associated with the QBO.
Interesting from this graph is to look at the period late 1988.
What happened then was a storm called Gilbert.
The QBO is an upper level tropical wind index. It is composed of very low pressure wind, 30-50 mb. It oscillates, like other wind indexes, with forces of pressure and temperature and so forth. But I am interested in two forces on the QBO in particular, gravity and electrics. The gravity part has been accepted science for a long time. The electrics part is not well expressed in the literature. Both gravity AND electrics explains how this wind could reverse itself from the top down.
So that is why scholars trying to describe how the QBO behaves have looked at forces that might not come to mind, immediately, as the forces must cause reversal from top down.
Note in figures 7-9 (results of model) that the flips between east and west zonal winds are symetrical. Calculations for a QBO work for both forcings (electrical and gravity).
Lindzen has no electrics in education to speak of. Holton's CV
Note in figure 1 that flips (results of model) between east and west zonal winds are symetrical.
More recent paper quotes himself as authority. Again, math supports BOTH gravity and electrics CAUSE of QBO. Note again that in figure 3-7, 13 that flips (results of model) between east and west zonal winds are symetrical.
Holton had a BA in Physics and a PhD in meteorology from MIT, where Lindzen teaches. He died in 2004.
Richard Linzen also had a physics undergrad background but a math PhD but with his PhD in the Radiative and photo chemical processes in strato- and mesopheric dynamics.
Linzen's reputation is as a leading 'skeptic' in the so called climate change debate. However my review of these early papers is clearly they have missed the forcing of electrics, which, along with the mechanism that THEY have proposed and propagated, which can be a force of ATTRACTION under the proper application.
So there we are. The model of the 'QBO' based on gravity waves only says it should be a symetrical behaving flip, but the reality is that when there are big storms like Gilbert, it is NOT. And Gilbert is BELOW that wind. So, the question is, how does Gilbert act to reverse this wind? An electrical forcing associated with Gilbert and other larger tropical storms is the only plausible explaination given the top down reversing dynamics.
Now, of course, ABOVE the winds at 10 mb and above is the ionosphere.
What's really interesing to me is that the QBO doesn't appear to reverse the same way. It goes from east to west different than it goes from west to east. One way is nice and smooth and the other less consistantly. Again, electrics can be a forcing of attraction just like gravity, such that some of the same math that both Linzen and Holton applied works by mechanism, and certainly their papers, their models do not disprove that electrics is involved minimally as a complexity. One thing that should be noted is that the atmosphere involved with the QBO is not ionoized, again, that its movement is top DOWN, from where the ionosphere is. But the ionosphere, form above is, of course, ionized.
I would also be very quick to point out that both of the scholars Lindzen and Bolton don't have much electrics in their research, and little in their education after their physics degrees, which were obtained almost 50 years ago. I contend they made a very bad assumption to exclude electrics as a source of the QBO, and it may be awhile before the mainstream academic community makes up for their exclusion, at great loss to the climate change debate. Meanwhile, the QBO is the subject of a tremendous amount of climate research:
". . . the exact physical mechanism [solar cycle linked to QBO] . . . is unknown . . ."
"The exact mechanism by which the QBO affects TCs in the troposphere is not clear."
Obviously, however, the solar cycle will influence the extant and nature of the ionosphere, particularly as it has recently with the sun having very few sun spots.
Check this out:
Story on sun projects to a year so quiet with the sun it compares to 1912-14. Check out what hurricane activity in 1914 was like:
Then with little difference in time, the next year is much more activity, just as the sun spot levels go back up again. I know there were difficulties in monitoring storms then but it's relative in the sense that what measures and observations that were available show a dramatic pattern shift . . . THEN to the next year once the observed sun spot activity increased:
At the same time ACE was way down globally to levels not seen in decades as the sun had been quiet with a low sun spot min.
But this is all occurring globally. As I have tried to explain, there are electrics reason why the Atlantic is active while the rest of the world isn't due to the time of when the Atlantic season is at its peak matching when global electrical lighting is peaking--which is the only time a conductivity forcing like CO2 dissolved in clouds becomes meaninful as a conductivity variable. No currents, no forcing.
Never have CO2 levels been this high, dams plugging up rivers like this, and in a fairly long period has solar activity been this low, our oceans poisoned and phytoplankton so low. Never. The only things I can strongly latch onto from an electrical standpoint have to do with experience we have with the underlying mechanisms, the electric, how the conductivies flow electrical currents in patterns, and perhaps when the currents are active with the conductivity change--namely from August 15-October 15.
SSTs/El Nino ends
Yesterday another storm system that was SUPPOSED to rain on us did not, swinging south once again against the computer models. Once again the ULL moved south near the Bay Area then into California. El Nino is causing the ULLs to dart farther south and it's been like that all winter. Just another example of it this week.
Electrically it's very cool when an El Nino ends. In May of 1998 at the end of the big El Nino a ... See Morethird Van Allen belt formed and SSTs in the Nino1/2 areas dropped 10 degF in a month. The colder the ocean there, the less conductive, hence the connection of events. The pattern is about to shift, from hurricane and tornado suppressing so called Walker circulations (read electrical energies going to the Pacific) to electrical energies staying in the Americas.
Check out these two links. One shows and ULL low heading south along the California coast in early February in the midst of the El Nino and then the next link shows the OZONE following it.
W/ El Nino in place the tropics are relatively warm south of all of this, so, yeah, there are theta ts or thermodynamics forces behnd a storm like this but also there are conductivity things going on because the warmer the SSTs the more conductive that salt water is there. This image you can actually SEE the ozone associated with the ULL which would feedback on it--different than the the tropics and subsistance over the hp area in an tropical storm eye. I have been observing these spring storms for years but here is a captured example of the ozone over the ULL. So Cal got soaked with this storm, and climatology tells you that El Ninos do bring rain to the south, including the SW. The season is following climatology. Anothe way cool thing about this ULL is it also follows some pretty good sun spot activity, which would and did produce elevated xray activity and add to the number of ion particles at play above the ULL. Really cool images here.
When speaking of the tropical storm, season, however, by then the El Nino will be gone. So instead of displacemence currents from lightning over the Americas going to the Walker circulations which create the SST anomalies of an El Nino, the cold SSTs don't support the couplings there, the big Walker circulations, as the colder the SSTs the less conductive the oceans are there. This means then that the displacement currents are available for Atlantic storms. Typically you will see the counter correlated relationship of El Nino to tropical storms expressed in terms of so called 'shear' that the Walker circulations present over the Atlantic. It well may be true, but conversely the relationship is from dependant electrical conditions. There is BOTH the electrical currents flowing to lower impedences in the Atlantic AND less energy going to the cold, less conductive waters in the Pacific which is making the walker circulations going to 'shear'. It's an entirely dependant relationship.
The climategate debate, low sun spots, and El Nino put a huge lull into the public expectations of what the tropical storm season will bring. Frankly, my view there remains an extremely active stage we are in due to CO2 levels and the electrical implications of CO2 during times of peak global lightning. The suppressing electrical conditions of low sun spot activity is now done, and the suppressing conditions of El Nino will also end. Of interest from a conductivity standpoint with biological/ river activity will be the Orinico delta again, as well as central west Mexico dam. The QBO won't enhance anything this year, but recently the conductivity implications resulted in to cat 2 storms occuring within a couple of weeks from each other, including Dean, during a non inhanced QBO year. All it takes is good space weather corresponding with the storm landfalling . . . for a disaster to occur. I would also predict that the Arctic will again melt between 2-3 SD from the norm between the dates of August 15 and October 15 and yet again grow back to 1 SD from the norm in the winter again, following the similar pattern which shows powerfully how CO2's impact as a conductivity variant only can occur with sufficient electrical currents flowing in the global electrical circuit. It wouldn't surprise me to see Carolina threatened, or the Maritines, but not the NE, as the melting of Greenland continues to dilute the local oceans there, which drops local conductivities of the oceans there.