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2008 hurricane forecast

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  • Mike Doran
    Summary: Early part of season will be marked by storm that hits the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. After that the season will be markedly suppressed due to an
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 1 11:04 PM
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      Summary:

      Early part of season will be marked by storm that hits the
      northeastern Gulf of Mexico. After that the season will be markedly
      suppressed due to an El Nino forming. The most interesting feature
      of the year will not be in the Atlantic so much as the Pacific, where
      the dam built on the Yellow River--Three Gorge Dam, will have a
      dramatic regional and even global implication on weather and climate.
      The big concern is regional drought--to the entire Pacific basin.
      Despite the return to more normal ice cover levels in the Arctic this
      winter with La Nina, the summer and fall is when climate change from
      CO2 is meaningful in the northern hemisphere, and the Arctic will
      continue to open, but probably not as much if the El Nino forms hard
      like I think it will. The big time melting and opening will continue
      more following this El Nino.

      But I think El Nino does form, and form before the peak of the
      season, and forms in such a way to suppress the season dramatically.
      It forms because, frankly, there is no other place on earth where
      there is much microbial activity, and this La Nina has made for a
      place where upwelling of nutrient rich waters has occurred--it won't
      take long for the biological feedbacks that enhance heat trapping
      clouds to kick in and already SSTs are warming up in Nino1. The QBO
      also indicates a suppressed season. There is no significant volcanic
      activity, and no interesting trends that I see in what the moon or
      the sun are doing, cycle wise. In short, except for Three Gorge, the
      forming El Nino will be the domanate feature in the weather and
      climate landscape. Therefore, my numbers are going to be very low.
      10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major storm--a fish in the mid
      Atlantic.



      Discussion.



      Everyone knows that ENSO really has a big impact on global synoptics.
      But no one without electrics

      can explain the teleconnections. And as it turns out, electrics is
      really helpful at explaining why

      La Nina is a particularly worrisome condition for people living in
      the Atlantic coast and Gulf of

      Mexico who are concerned about tropical storms. The traditional
      explaination is that there is a

      lack of shear.

      Even leading scholars are talking about 'shear'. Last year Chris
      Landsea in an interview talked

      about a study which indicated that with warming oceans from climate
      change may come greater 'shear',

      which would actually decrease the number of tropical storms. And so
      the first thing that pops into

      someone like Landsea's head is shear--which lacks of understanding of
      electrics.

      It does turn out that the warmer the oceans are, the more conductive
      they are. But to have a

      capacitive coupling you have to be able to hold charges from above,
      too. It turns out there is a

      trick in here--that is rooted in Coulumb's law. That's because the
      atmosphere toward the poles gets

      thinner and thinner and when you are talking about a static field its
      strength is proportionate to

      an inverse of the distances squared between attractive charges. Where
      static charges can exist are

      in the conductive oceans AND the ionosphere--which is closer to the
      earth the farther north you go.

      So if you have a thinner atmosphere the charges from above and below
      are going to couple with

      greater force.

      Thus, in terms of how electrics helps to organize how clouds behave,
      and in particular how a

      tropical storm is organized electrically, just the fact that the
      atmosphere is thinner can make up

      for the fact that the oceans, compared to the tropics, are colder and
      thus less conductive.

      Moreover, in the fall the ozone layer from the full summer of
      inclination of the earth derived UV

      light, is at its greatest levels in the northern hemisphere. And, of
      course, the ice is the least

      and the oceans warmest in the northern hemisphere. All this occurs in
      the context of a 'thinner'

      atmosphere.

      During El Nino, displacement currents from lightning from the
      Americas can leak out the tropical

      west Pacific and increase walker circulations. These circulations get
      so large that they bring rain

      to Califoria in the winter--the rain pattern remains farther south
      and there are less cold core

      storms. But if the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical
      Pacific are cold anomaly as in La

      Nina, displacement currents from lightning can't leak along the
      tropics. The tropics must compete

      with low impedence events brought about because the atmosphre is
      thinner in the north and it's

      easier to make capacitive couplings through a shorter distance. In
      the winter La Nina means for us

      in the Pacific northwest that we're going to have a more cold core
      systems than usual, and that

      certainly played out. But it meant and means a similar thing for
      those in the Atlantic as this

      storm season comes.

      The traditional explaination for the wind and ocean temperature
      dynamic isn't real sound to expain

      itself, either. Not just that the ENSO models themselves are all over
      the map but even if you KNOW

      what the SSTs are you cannot tell with decent forecast skill if the
      warm pool will stay or go or

      reverse itself. The flips of one state to another and just as
      importatly the teleconnections that

      derive from them or the movement from El Nino to nuetral to La Nina--
      and how rain patterns respond

      to these changes are not well understood by traditional descriptions.
      And, yes, I will be the first

      to admit that I am talking about a complexity, that there are other
      processes involved that have

      electrical influences. Including a volcanic erruption or as was the
      case in late 2004 a tidal wave

      near Indonesia.

      The biggest problem that those who advocate the pure traditional
      arguments about ENSO is how the

      teleconnections influence patterns instantaniously--that there are no
      ways for winds and pressures

      2000 miles away to in real time affect immediately what occurs at
      another location. But with

      electrics there is a reasonable way to describe the statics and the
      dynamics.

      Cold core systems all spring occurred in the North Pacific consistant
      with La Nina SSTs and the fact

      that the colder saltwater is the less conductive it is--and how those
      displacement currents from

      South America have to go SOMEWHERE and with La Nina they tend to go
      to the North Pacific in the

      winter . . . so what is to follow as the spring comes and in the
      upwelling of those cold SSTs the

      nutrients start biological activity and those waters become more
      conductive--and the ITCZ becomes

      more conductive, then displacement currents from South America and
      with the changing season then

      America--these currents flow away from the Americas to the ITCZ and
      away from the Atlantic as

      conditions move away from La Nina. But we are not there yet. While
      there is some warming of the

      oceans off the Panama/South Mexico coasts, the middle of the Pacific
      remains anomaly cold. That

      means that the displacement currents can't escape away from the
      Americas, and sets up the classic

      signature of increased risks of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin
      for the early part of this year.

      But more than just the incident of storms, there is also the same
      feature of cold anomalies in the

      tropics that might counterintuitively mean that a storm would move,
      like cold core storms did this

      winter in the Pacific, north of the tropics in the Atlantic. That
      there is a sort of double threat

      here brewing--not just that there is more energy for capacitive
      couplings in the Atlantic with La

      Nina, but also that there is less electrical organization in the
      tropics that might hold a storm

      there in the tropics instead of allowing a storm to move north toward
      the United States.


      This last year as the La Nina began to set in, there was a storm Noel

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2007/NOEL/track_s.gif

      that moved north originating from the most interesting bio electrical
      place last year, Lake

      Maracaibo.

      Here is a picture and link to the problem with Lake Maracaibo as
      associated with Ivan's intensity

      peak (this year Goggle earth showed the sad state of this lake) and
      associated with this year were

      the storms Dean and Felix, to cat 5s a couple weeks apart, as well as
      flooding straight north of

      this lake in Haiti. The problems with the lake are IMHO related to
      dam and river changes to the

      Orinoco.


      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Sep2004/Maraca
      ibo_AMO_2004245.jpg

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php
      3?img_id=12404

      Noel

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2007/NOEL/track_s.gif


      Felix

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2007/FELIX/track_s.gi
      f

      Dean

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2007/DEAN/track_s.gif

      Ivan

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004H/IVAN/track_s.gi
      f


      All these storms intensified as the storm went north of Lake
      Maracaibo.

      The question becomes--what is the area THIS year for higher microbial
      activity in the oceans? The

      drought monitor is sometimes helpful. Keep in mind that during La
      Nina the southern states tend to

      get less rain . . .

      http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/drmon.gif

      Santa Rosa Beach, Florida, on Choctawhatchee Bay

      http://activerain.com/blogsview/269484/Red-Tide

      Pensecola

      http://www.klfy.com/Global/story.asp?S=7219339

      Last year there were also hints of red tide activity along the west
      coast of Florida.



      The QBO also is a helpful indicater due to the fact that the ion wind
      indicates the character of the

      earth EMF. During positive shifts it tends to suppress activity,
      although in 2004 Florida saw a

      number of storms--but that corresponded to VERY significant amount of
      microbial activity there,

      rather than the . . . more modest reports of red tide actvity from
      last year. The QBO was positive

      in 2004 and 2006, which saw Earnesto, not much but something.

      http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/qbo.data

      2006 -18.83 -11.24 -0.38 5.00 10.36 11.47 10.75
      9.10 10.20 10.86 10.10 6.21
      2007 2.61 2.43 1.24 -5.18 -14.07 -21.34 -24.93 -
      27.41 -28.14 -29.05 -27.61 -19.48
      2008 -12.43 -4.70 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -
      999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00


      http://nsidc.org/sotc/images/meanextent.gif

      http://nsidc.org/sotc/sea_ice.html

      Arctic Ice increasing to near normal levels following La Nina

      http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/faq_fig2.php

      AMO warming -- but also indications of low levels of Phytoplankton
      activity.


      To me the season will be marked by the nature and extent of the cold
      anomalies in the Pacific--how

      long do they last? As long as they are there, there will be a risk
      of an early storm, that

      threatens the northeast Gulf of Mexico--given what red tide
      complaints were last year and the lingering affects of La Nina. From
      here the season will likely be defined by Three Gorge dam.

      What we know by history is that if a large dam isn't shutting down a
      season globally, then you

      might start to see a pattern of repetitive storms along almost the
      same track such as we saw with
      Itaipu from 1977-1982. There was heavy activity in 1933 following
      river changes to the Mississippi, Rio and Colorado--then the Dust
      Bowl years.

      Then with higher CO2 watch for lower impedences when in fact surface
      lows occur. That can mean more intense but fewer events globally but
      the bio implication remains what it is, a modulating influence. You
      should see the continued melting of the Arctic ice sheet particularly
      during the summer and winter from normal levels--because that is when
      there is more lightning in the northern hemisphere and the change is
      about a drop in resistance in the global electrical circuit, not
      about CO2 as a green house gas.

      Last year my prediction of Storms--16, Hurricanes--8 and Majors--5
      was close to perfect, but I wrote that "These numbers are largely
      speculation--but I will say that because of the reasons I have
      outlined, there is no history on which you could make much of a
      meaningful prediction." What I mean by that is unlike Phil Klotzbach
      who relies on a statistical analysis, I would point out just the
      opposite that the modulating influence of the macrobiosphere distorts
      the past. Statistics relies on taking, for instance, from the jar of
      marbles a sample to figure out what is in the jar and then what you
      might pick out of the jar on the next sample. But if the marbles in
      the jar are CHANGING, the target you sample is moving, and if it
      moves too much, it's a waste of time to even use statistics. And
      clearly when you have such a huge human activity like Three Gorge
      there is little in the past that you can point to to figure out just
      how the influence is going to change that jar of marbles. That's the
      problem. Overlay Three Gorge on top of the additional problem of CO2
      as an electrical element in tropical storms--how it affects their
      impedences in the capacitive couplings I have been describing . . .
      and then add the melting Arctic, which has a HUGE electrical meaning,
      and perhaps the best you can do is to look at what the biosphere is
      doing. That's really the best you can do--and right now the
      microbial biosphere--as reported in the NPR link below, is at a low.
      To me, that was a sign of the warming oceans and the lack of
      nutrients from upwelling cold waters, among other things. And this
      is a cyclical deal, if it be of modulating or dampening ability. But
      I think it tells you something, tells you that a shife is coming,
      that a big El Nino is on the way. But that big El Nino can be
      prevented if instead of the displacement currents going to a Walker
      circulation, to sustaining a change in the SOI pattern winds, it goes
      to a storm like an Ioke, leaving nothing left electrically to alter
      clouds in the Pacific ITCZ. In any event, either an Ioke, an El
      Nino, or a global drop in storms altogether from Three Gorge is going
      to suppress activity in the Atlantic. Could it be suppression like
      that which occurred with big El Nino in 1997? I am not sure it will
      go THAT far. Yet it doesn't have to go very far to suppress the
      season in the Atlantic. However, before that El Nino sets in if
      enough activity gets going in the Atlantic--particularly around
      Florida, these storms themselves roil the oceans enough for microbial
      activity to follow in the wakes of these storms.


      Notes:

      From an electrics standpoint, the most interesting place on earth, as
      far as climate change and Co2

      is concerned, is the Arctic.

      http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

      Here is some simple math and model behind the electrics to consider.
      About 90% of the lightning

      occurs over land. That lightning separates out charges--its a source
      of power. That power is used

      in couplings of charges that alter cloud behaviors. So simply . . . a
      simple circuit model . . . is

      lightning as a power source, and the oceans a conductive "wire" and
      the upper atmosphere the other

      wire and then the power is used to help organize clouds. These
      clouds trap heat and warm the

      earth.Okay so far with this model? What would it predict given higher
      CO2? Well, as I have discussed

      here, CO2 has ELECTRICAL meaning. When a surface low spins about
      clouds--like a tropical storm, the

      up and down static fields I am describing allow an electrical process
      called induction to occur. And

      as CO2 comes out of solution with a tropical storm (Bates et al on
      Felix Nature 1999), just like if

      you shake your soda and crack it open. That CO2 then moves into the
      spinning clouds and increases

      the induction involved. For purposes of this model--what added CO2
      from fossil fuels does is

      increase the carbonation in the oceans, and hence, decreases the
      resistance involved in the global

      electrical circuit. Now the math:

      P = I[squared].R

      (Power equals current squared times resistance. This is basic Ohms
      law stuff and looks at a simple

      model of the earth global electrical circuit. Totally accepted math
      and science. What it tells you

      is that the power requirements to change the clouds are going to be
      proportional to the

      resistance--so put another way the increasing CO2, if you assume like
      I do that it changes the

      resistance of the global electrical circuit, since there is more
      current in the northern hemisphere,

      there will be a corresponding increase in the amount of electrical
      power available to change cloud

      behaviors in the northern hemisphere that varies on an order of a
      power! This is directly related

      to the decreasing resistance in the global electrical circuit, and
      heat trapping clouds are

      produced. Those pushing the green house gas theory of CO2 might give
      a "So what?" to this because

      they already argue that there is a direct cloud feedback to warming.
      But taking it a step farther,

      its even MORE interesting because it explains more clearly a number
      of observations. The first is

      that because most of the land is over the Northern Hemisphere, there
      is more lightning in the

      northern hemisphere overall. And guess what? Warming is more
      pronounced in the MSU data set in the

      Northern Hemisphere. And even more interesting, in light of all this
      flap over a colder winter (it's

      La Nina, dah) and the area increase over the Arctic misses the fact
      that the record melting occurs

      in a pattern to match this same expectation given the electrics--when
      the oceans are warmest and

      therefore most conductive and lightning in the Northern Hemisphere is
      at its peak--thats when this

      record melting is appearing as the greatest anomaly above. See that
      graph . . . on the bottom there?

      Mmmmmm?The CO2 as a green house gas theory fails to explain either
      the pattern of melting or the

      differene by hemisphere, but the most simple electrics formulations
      PREDICT IT. Electrics helps you

      see why the Arctic Ice sheet is melting sharply in the summer/fall
      but can be back to near normal

      levels in the winter/spring.


      http://webflash.ess.washington.edu/

      Last year there were still remaining questions regarding how CO2 was
      electrical and how it pertained

      to tropical storms. But after observing intensity changes going
      along with tropical storm center

      bursts of lightning and then following it in the above UW link, the
      idea of CO2 coming out of

      solution from the oceans with a surface low, much like a beer fizzes
      after you shake it and crack it

      open and THEN that CO2 redissolving in local clouds--it would change
      the ion counts in the water

      condensing in these newly formed clouds. Then these clouds, in a
      larger scale way, are moving in

      the context of an up and down static field. This has induction or
      impedence meaning. In short,

      when you look at CO2 it has signfiicant electrical meaning.


      In 1997-8 there was a 500 year El Nino. That is, while El Ninos
      occur about every 2-7 years the

      kind of severe El Nino that we saw in 1997-8 occurs about once every
      500 years. What's interesting

      is the up and down spike in the Arctic sea ice graph you see this
      year looks a lot like the up and

      down spike that came right before that big El Nino. And notice that
      even though there was this HUGE

      event--something not seen for 500 years. And yet during that event
      the Arctic didn't melt down like

      it did this last year. Why?

      Bio-electrics explains. When the tropical east Pacific is anomaly
      cold--the displacement currents

      from lightning flows away from the tropics and to the higher
      lattitudes. There, more cloud cover is

      organized and heats up the Arctic. Later, the same cold anomalies are
      the place of the rich

      upwelling of nutrients, which starts a food chain and helps to
      counterintuitively make the same

      tropical waters highly conductive, highly capable of supporting
      capactive couplings there. This is

      the start of the so called big Walker circulations--and El Nino. But
      El Nino means the same

      displacement currents won't go to the higher lattitudes--so even
      though we all associate El Nino

      with a warm condition globally, it does not mean that the ice in the
      Arctic melts.


      The year of 2007 saw a minimally below average worldwide formation
      of "named" tropical cyclones.

      The total number of storms reaching the threshold was 81. (This
      number represents only those storms

      that formed between Jan 1 and Dec 31, and does not include storms
      that formed prior to Jan 1, and

      lasted through and past Jan 1).

      Citation: NRL Monterrey website.

      The average number of cyclones worldwide since complete worldwide
      records were kept (1970), is 86.

      Citation: Chris Landsea - Climate Variability Table, 2006, accessible
      from Wikipedia.

      The average for intense cyclones over the same period from 1970 to
      date was 20.

      2007 saw only 13 intense cyclones.

      In fact, since worldwide records have been kept, 2007 is the second
      least active year on record,

      only second to 1977. Third least active year on record, you may ask?
      2006.

      Enter Three Gorge.

      This huge dam creates a lake the size of Superior and its happening
      NOW.

      http://www.chinaonline.cn.com/china_travel/21st-century-
      china/images/three_gorges_dam01.jpg

      Construction was structurally completed on May 2006 and the main
      river was rediverted. See:

      http://www.chinaonline.cn.com/china_travel/21st-century-china/3-
      gorges-dam.html

      The weather and climate impact to the region was immediate. See:

      http://www.worldwatch.org/node/4546
      http://www.probeinternational.org/catalog/content_fullstory.php?
      contentId=6085&cat_id=67

      Dams carry HUGE electrical meaning. Less fresh water means more
      saline bodies. More significantly,

      upwelling patterns AND CARBON LOADS of oceans change. Huge changes
      and these changes bring about

      significant patterns you can see in the paths of tropical storms.
      1977 was mentioned as the other

      less active year . . .

      From:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itaipu

      http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/1/19/Itaipu2.JPG/450px-
      Itaipu2.JPG



      Itaipu Dam

      Construction starts
      In 1970, the consortium formed by the companies IECO (from the United
      States of America) and ELC

      (from Italy) won the international competition for the realization of
      the viability studies and for

      the elaboration of the construction project. Work began in February
      1971. On April 26, 1973, Brazil

      and Paraguay signed the Itaipu Treaty, the legal instrument for the
      hydroelectric exploitation of

      the Paraná River by the two countries. On May 17, 1974, the Itaipu
      Binacional entity was created to

      administer the plants construction. The works began in January of
      the following year

      Paraná River rerouted
      On October 14, 1978, the Paraná River had its route changed, which
      allowed a section of the riverbed

      to dry so the dam could be built there.



      Proof in electrical and hence storm season impact is in the location
      of storms following a

      significant change in a river like that which occurred iwth the
      Paraná River. First your baseline

      year:




      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1976/track.gif

      Then your record inactive year--not especially the lack of southern
      tracking storms:

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1977/track.gif

      Note that Africa is the most struck place on earth. Now your kicker.
      Check out Dora and Greta:

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1978/track.gif

      Then David and Frederic:

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1979/track.gif

      Allen:

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1980/track.gif

      Dennis:

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1981/track.gif

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Chich%C3%B3n_Volcano

      Then came El Chichon in early 1982. Debbie:

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1982/track.gif

      By 1983 the impact from that volcano was complete:

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1983/track.gif

      So I would say that it's fair to comment that the tropical storm
      season was affected for about 5-6

      years from this massive dam. Three Gorge will have even a larger
      impact, IMHO.


      CO- levels during ENSO:

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/Images/globalco_mo
      p_200611.jpg

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?
      img_id=17569

      Inconsistant story of cooling oceans consistant with La Nina and lack
      of microbial biological activity in the oceans:

      http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025

      Some 3,000 scientific robots that are plying the ocean have sent home
      a puzzling message. These

      diving instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all
      over the past four or five

      years. That could mean global warming has taken a breather. Or it
      could mean scientists aren't quite

      understanding what their robots are telling them.



      http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87959035


      http://media.npr.org/programs/atc/features/2008/mar/ocean_desert/map_4
      50.jpg

      A new study reveals the extent of the "desert of the sea," shown here
      in black, where plant life is

      the lowest. This image is an average of ocean chlorophyll over the
      study's nine-year period. NOAA

      The region of the ocean known as "the desert of the sea" has expanded
      dramatically over the past

      decade, according to a new study. Scientists looking at the color of
      the ocean from space have found

      that vast areas that were once green with plankton have been turning
      blue, as marine life becomes

      scarcer. If it's linked to global warming, as they suspect, this
      could be another blow for the

      world's fisheries.

      Just as plants make up the base of the food web on land, tiny green
      phytoplankton in the ocean are a

      critical foodstuff for life in the oceans. And Jeff Polovina, at a
      National Marine Fisheries Service

      lab in Hawaii, has been watching by satellite as that greenery in the
      middle of the ocean is fading

      away.

      Comments:

      This is a grand clue of the feedback. More microbial life, more heat
      trapping clouds. As the oceans

      warm too much, upwelling nutrients decrease, and the cloud feedbacks
      decrease. The ocean cools.

      Unless and until electrics and bio modulation is addressed, the
      climate change debate will produce

      more heat than light. BTW, RWN sites uniformly put up the first NPR
      story. For instance, Roger

      Pielke Sr. takes issue with the final paragraph of the NPR article
      which states:

      quote:
      ----------------------------------------------------------------------
      ----------
      Trenberth and Willis agree that a few mild years have no effect on
      the long-term trend of global

      warming. But they say there are still things to learn about how our
      planet copes with the

      heat.-----------------------------------------------------------------
      ---------------

      Pielke says:

      ----------------------------------------------------------------------
      ----------
      This is denial of the obvious. The observed absence of heat
      accumulation (of Joules) in the upper

      ocean (and in the troposphere) for the last four years means that
      there has been NO global warming

      in these climate metrics during this time period. It is unknown
      whether this is a short term

      aberration but, regardless, it is clear that the IPCC models have
      failed to skillfully predict this

      absence of warming. That should have been the conclusion stated at
      the end of the NPR story.
      ----------------------------------------------------------------------
      ----------

      But because no one is looking at gaia or electrics--both warmers and
      skeptics completely miss it.

      Moreover, as I have mentioned before, warmers have the wrong
      mechanism for what CO2 does or

      means--it's forcing on clouds is ELECTRICAL.
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