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2007 Tropical Storm forecast

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  • Mike Doran
    This year I have sketch notes and a few predictions. I am limited in time to do this, but have a full winter of writing and research so that I do have a few
    Message 1 of 2 , Apr 1 5:23 PM
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      This year I have sketch notes and a few predictions. I am limited in
      time to do this, but have a full winter of writing and research so
      that I do have a few things to say and I will add analysis to this
      thread in the next few weeks. This was the warmest winter according
      to the MSU data from December to February. Interestingly, the ENSO
      SIO signal largely remained nuetral during this time, even though
      SSTs were warm anomaly starting this fall and the tropical storm
      season was dramatically suppressed by the El Nino SSTs in the
      tropical Pacific. Well, let me put my two cents in. The current dogma
      is that El Nino suppresses tropical storms. But I see it the other
      way--that global electrical conditions that suppress tropical storms
      allows the displacement currents from global strikes to power bigger
      walker circulations. Of course once SSTs are warm anomaly, the east
      tropical pacific can become the low impedence place on earth, and
      then displacement currents will flow there and not to organize
      tropical storms. But it's a dependant relationship on CO2--one of the
      links below shows that relationship, how CO2 local levels vary by
      ENSO.

      My predictions this year are that there will not be suppression from
      ENSO, or put another way there were be globally enough storms to
      prevent extremes of the SOI--the wind/pressure part of the electrics
      impact. That includes perhaps much of a negative event.

      And BTW while I am at it, in terms of mechanism, I want to talk a
      little more about where the decarbonation impact specifics. Salinity
      is big. So the high pressures seem to be over the salty places--
      salinity tells you a lot about the capacitive couplings. But once you
      get into the ITCZ . . . by season the storms will track along a path
      with similar salinity. So next comes, IMHO, with the cloud and the
      lows electrics by dielectrics and by decarbonation. Yet at some point
      the winds become so huge that there is salt water spray and an
      increase in the surface area of that spray and probably a drop in
      what decarbonation means to the electrics. At the same time there are
      lightning strikes in the inner eye which probably plays by gas plasma
      on the couplings. To what degree has never been tested--indeed some
      of the images real time of strikes globally with passing tropical
      storms is like just this winter kind of cutting edge.

      Gas plasma--the kind that makes for paths of electric currents in
      lightning bolts, are HOT. Several thousands of degree. So that bolt
      hits the ocean surface--how does it interact with the decarbonating
      oceans with that surface low? How does plasma change the interplay of
      inner eyewall strikes and the capacitive couplings that form?

      Then what does life do to the whole thing--how do protoplankton
      blooms play?

      This year following such a warm winter, there just isn't much bloom
      activity, except perhaps in the tropical Pacific where some what of a
      mild cold event has formed. But there is nothing going on of
      signficance along the Gulf coast or Carolinas this year . . . so far.

      Meanwhile, the Arctic continues the record melting, and Three Gorge
      dam is filling with water. Both are wild cards here--there is no
      climatology for these significant electrics event. And there is even
      a suggestion that arosols may have a play in the global electric
      circuit in terms of where the anomalies are . . . another wild card.
      What we do know is that the earth EMF has shrunk and the anomalies
      are between the two asteroid impact sites at the Yucatan and Wilkes--
      and it seems that places away from between those impact sites are
      seeing some of the more radical climate changes. The AMO is also
      positive this year, as is the QBO, both factors that push the storm
      season. The Indian Ocean has recovered, so that reduces the MJO
      impact, IMHO. It's a complex bag of features which cannot be really
      looked at statistically simply because there is no real history for
      what is going on now.

      In fact, I would argue the biggest threat to climate is not warming
      or cooling per se but INSTABILITY. Strange jumps from the modulated
      or dampened climate the biosphere has become used to and which it has
      created for itself.

      Anyway, with all that to me it looks like we are still on track with
      1935 as a model year and the key feature of that year was the big
      storm to south Florida. And that's about all I am going to say about
      this year. I do NOT think that the Carolinas are that threatened,
      because there is no present bloom activity there. There was some
      volcanic activity in the eastern Carribean, and that may mean a storm
      or two there.

      The key general feature to appreciate will be the drought and heat
      from the implications of drought in the SW and then the Three Gorge
      dam and the model year. The drought and heat will be the story of the
      season--plus the Florida storm.

      Also following 2005 I don't think that the deep electrics recovers so
      quickly. And as Steve and I have discussed here with the moon having
      induction meaning, as well as the larger planets having electrics
      meaning from their gravital meaning, cycles like what produced the
      activity of 2005 doesn't happen all the time because it involves a
      huge amount of discharging electrics that take time to charge.

      So my numbers are going to be not 2005 big at all. Storms--16.
      Hurricanes--8. Majors--5.

      These numbers are largely speculation--but I will say that because of
      the reasons I have outlined, there is no history on which you could
      make much of a meaningful prediction.


      Let me sum it up another way. I have always been about posting what I
      think is going to happen based on what the biosphere has been doing--
      where the big blooms were. Like in 2005 there was the bloom in the
      north GOM where Katrina struck and in 2003 there was a bloom off the
      Carolinas where Isabel struck.

      This year--nothing of significance by way of protoplankton blooms. I
      feel comfortable in predicting to you that when it is how I will
      sweat or when it is cold I will shiver. I don't feel that comfortable
      making a prediction that it will be hot or cold in a basin--because
      the way that you make these kinds of predictions is based on
      statistics that I think are horribly flawed by changing underlying
      histories on which they were based and at the same time by scientists
      who have the wrong causal mechanisms in mind.

      Some of the more significant bio feedbacks that are NOT related to
      blooms have to do with methane hydrate fields, and Florida is set
      apart because it has corals, not hydrate fields like the GOM or like
      coastal Carolinas. By history, the 1935 storm followed the active
      1933 season, which I have pointed out in the past, followed the
      change to the Bolder dam in 1932 with its first diversion.


      Notes:


      Indian Ocean recovers from tidal wave that so impacted 2005.


      http://webflash.ess.washington.edu/

      This lightning flash link to global strikes is now in movie form.

      Strike image associated with Isabel.

      http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/atlight.jpg

      Stanford paper on the electrics of Isabel

      http://nova.stanford.edu/~vlf/publications/2005-04.pdf


      http://www.utdallas.edu/physics/faculty/tinsley.html

      http://www.utdallas.edu/physics/pdf/Atmos_060302.pdf

      See figure 2.1 on page 3:

      Dr. Tinsley has published--and it's accepted science, that there are
      more storms around the magnetic south pole. That pole is skewed off
      to the side of Antarctica and that's were the statistically
      significant added precip has occurred. Why? How are the closing
      downward isobars of the south magnetic field DIFFERENT than the
      closing downward isobars of a capacitive coupling?

      Here is another paper by Tinsley looking at electrics and the sun:

      http://www.utdallas.edu/physics/pdf/Tin_rev.pdf


      The Keeling Whorf paper, found here
      http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197 , shows the cycle of
      the moon as to the Little Ice Age and smaller sub cycles. Those sub
      cycles include the same sub cycles that exist with the so called
      cooling in the 1970s and the 88 year cycle referred in the above
      article.


      http://www.spaceweather.com/swpod2007/28mar07/hexaurora_strip.jpg

      Saturn storm on north pole. Note that Saturn's EMF poles are at its
      TROPICS.


      Here is a link that shows how scientists know over time the pole
      direction of the earth EMF

      http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/earth/interior/seafloor_spreadi
      ng_interactive.html

      which shows reversal timeline from sea floor spreading.

      This image shows where the south EMF pole is:

      http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/travel/dg/maps/a4/750x750_antarcti
      ca_m.gif

      There is a theory that asteroid striking the earth cause mass
      extinction. A new one was just found and it was posutlated, IMHO
      incorrectly, that this asteroid killed a lot of life. I it was not an
      large extinction event strike even though it was a large impact:

      http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/35/Antarctica_Ma
      p_Wilkes_L_Crater.png/300px-Antarctica_Map_Wilkes_L_Crater.png

      The reason why the impact of Wilkes Land mascon did NOT cause a mass
      extinction is the electrics consequences of the impact was actually
      more climate STABILITY! That's because by impacting near the
      geographical pole the conductive region formed between the surface of
      the earth and the depths -- which is molten and conductive, enabled
      the charges that form a negative pole and remain that way for
      millions of years. Thus, the date for such an impact would be about
      120 million years ago -- by the timeline of magnetic field reversals
      per sea floor spreading data:

      http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/magnetic/images/timeline.gif

      http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/06/KT_boundary_054.jp
      g/300px-KT_boundary_054.jpg

      There is no reasonable explaination why the K-T boundry marks a
      remarkable difference in the rates of energy and retention of that
      energy within the system. What I will show you below is that the
      impact itself didn't add much more the heat energy to the system than
      it already dispenses within a year of an El Nino. The theories that
      exist why that everything over 50 pounds died include that there was
      soot from the impact that blocked sunlight--the so called nuclear
      winter. But even that theory doesn't explain MILLIONS of years
      climate and even Wilma and Gilbert's behavior and after behavior.

      Energy of the impact:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event


      quote:
      ----------------------------------------------------------------------
      ----------
      Based on crater formation rates determined from the Earth's closest
      celestial partner, the Moon, astrogeologists have determined that
      during the last 600 million years, the Earth has been struck by 60
      objects of a diameter of five kilometers or more. The smallest of
      these impactors would release the equivalent of 10,000,000 (ten
      million) megatons of TNT and leave a crater 95 kilometers across. For
      comparison, the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated, the Tsar
      Bomba, had a yield of 50 megatons.
      ----------------------------------------------------------------------
      ----------



      Comparable energy that the earth distributes in one year on order of
      scale--an El Nino's heat in the oceans:

      http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/elnino/anatomy/origins.html


      quote:
      ----------------------------------------------------------------------
      ----------
      Or if you want to think in more violent terms, that's all the energy
      produced by about half a million 20 megaton hydrogen bombs, gone into
      heating water.
      ----------------------------------------------------------------------
      ----------


      Consider how a scratch on a circuit board with small energy for the
      scratch can impact larger energies for the life of that board (unless
      someone comes and repairs it). Then consider that the path of Gilbert
      and Wilma, the strongest storms in the Atlantic ever recorded, all
      ran straight into the Yucatan impact site. Co ink a dink? Nah.



      http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/drmon.gif

      drought monitor

      http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/qbo.data

      2005 -0.45 -0.88 0.06 -6.64 -15.09 -20.59 -24.20 -25.87 -27.80 -
      28.76 -29.55 -25.04
      2006 -18.83 -11.24 -0.38 5.00 10.36 11.47 10.75 9.10 10.20 10.86
      10.10 6.21
      2007 2.61 2.43

      http://nsidc.org/sotc/images/meanextent.gif

      http://nsidc.org/sotc/sea_ice.html

      Arctic Ice decreasing


      http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/faq_fig2.jpg

      http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/faq_fig2.php

      AMO and model year 1935

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1935/index.html


      Impact of Three Gorge

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Mar2007/nchina
      _tmo_2007083.jpg
      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php
      3?img_id=14187
      Dust storm in China

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Mar2007/china_
      tmo_2007085.jpg
      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php
      3?img_id=14182

      Haze over China



      Let's take a look at the unseen--the electrical organization behind
      the a tropical storm:

      ELECTRON VAN ALLEN BELT (charges are relative to each other and
      partially held by the flux lines of the earth magnetic field)


      ....................+..............+
      .....................\............/
      ......................\........../
      ........................v .......v
      ........................^......^
      .........................\..../
      ..........................\../
      ..........................-.-
      ..+ -----><----- - + - -----><----- +
      ...........................-
      ...........................|
      ...........................|
      ...........................v
      ...........................^
      ...........................|
      ...........................|
      ...........................+

      PROTON VAN ALLEN BELT (partially held by the flux lines of the earth
      magnetic field)

      ....................-..............-
      .....................\............/
      ......................\........../
      .......................v .......v
      ........................^......^
      .........................\..../
      ..........................\../
      ..........................+.+
      ...- -----><----- + - + -----><----- -
      ...........................+
      ...........................|
      ...........................|
      ...........................v
      ...........................^
      ...........................|
      ...........................|
      ...........................-


      UPPER IONOSPHERE

      ....................+..............+
      .....................\............/
      ......................\........../
      .......................v .......v
      ........................^......^
      .........................\..../
      ..........................\../
      ..........................-.-
      ..+ -----><----- - + - -----><----- +
      ...........................-
      ...........................|
      ...........................|
      ...........................v
      ...........................^
      ...........................|
      ...........................|
      ...........................+


      LOWER IONOSPHERE

      ....................-..............-
      .....................\............/
      ......................\........../
      .......................v .......v
      ........................^......^
      .........................\..../
      ..........................\../
      ..........................+.+
      ...- -----><----- + - + -----><----- -
      ...........................+
      ...........................|
      ...........................|
      ...........................v
      ...........................^
      ...........................|
      ...........................|
      ...........................-


      ATLANTIC SURFACE (warm conductive Gulf Stream)

      ....................+..............+
      .....................\............/
      ......................\........../
      .......................v .......v
      ........................^......^
      .........................\..../
      ..........................\../
      ..........................-.-
      ..+ -----><----- - + - -----><----- +
      ...........................-
      ...........................|
      ...........................|
      ...........................v
      ...........................^
      ...........................|
      ...........................|
      ...........................+

      ATLANTIC SUB-SURFACE

      ....................-..............-
      .....................\............/
      ......................\........../
      .......................v .......v
      ........................^......^
      .........................\..../
      ..........................\../
      ..........................+.+
      ...- -----><----- + - + -----><----- -
      ...........................+
      ...........................|
      ...........................|
      ...........................v
      ...........................^
      ...........................|
      ...........................|
      ...........................-


      Ionosphere to space Capacitive Coupling above Eye (not to scale):

      ............................-.-+-.- electron van Allen belt
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................v..v..v
      ............................^..^..^
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................+.+-+.+ Proton van Allen belt
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................v..v..v
      ............................^..^..^
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................-..+..- Upper ionosphere
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................v..v..v
      ............................^..^..^
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................+..-..+ Lower ionosphere
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................v..v..v
      .......................***o*o*o*** Cloud level
      ............................^..^..^
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................-..+..- Ocean surface
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................v..v..v
      ............................^..^..^
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................+..-..+ Ocean sub surface

      And it is on the surface of a tropical storm where the low pressures
      and winds cause CO2 to come out of solution and then rise to that
      surface and run back to ion form--changing conductivities for periods
      that impact the cloud microphysics of the storm per the China paper:

      http://www.ichmt.org/abstracts/Vim-01/abstracts/04-01.pdf


      Shrinking earth EMF

      http://www.sciam.com/media/inline/000A3C38-C656-1C71-
      9EB7809EC588F2D7_arch1.gif

      http://www.sciam.com/askexpert_question.cfm?articleID=000A3C38-C656-
      1C71-9EB7809EC588F2D7&catID=3

      CO- levels during ENSO:

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/Images/globalco_mo
      p_200611.jpg

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?
      img_id=17569
    • HUP HUP
      ... Thanks.. This is great info! :) ..and I was just about to go to bed! hehe
      Message 2 of 2 , May 11, 2007
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        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
        <narodaleahcim@...> wrote:
        >
        Thanks.. This is great info! :) ..and I was just about to go to bed!
        hehe
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