Solar Activity Report for 1/29/06
- Well, the sunspot region I mentioned in my last report didn't create
any significant flares. Now, the solar disk is totally blank...no
sunspots visible. Can you tell we're close to solar minimum? In
fact, we may be at it now. Here's a quote from an interesting aticle
"Hathaway and colleague Bob Wilson, both working at NASA's Marshall
Space Flight Center, believe they've found a simple way to predict the
date of the next solar minimum. "We examined data from the last 8
solar cycles and discovered that Solar Min follows the first spotless
day after Solar Max by 34 months," explains Hathaway.
The most recent solar maximum was in late 2000. The first spotless day
after that was Jan 28, 2004. So, using Hathaway and Wilson's simple
rule, solar minimum should arrive in late 2006. That's about a year
earlier than previously thought."
Watch for a big flare over the next couple of months. For whatever
reason, the last several solar minima have seen X-class flares creates
almost right at the time of the minimum.
There is a small coronal hole that is rotating into an Earth-pointing
position. We could see some solar wind gusts from it on the 2nd or 3rd.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 0
SFI : 80
A index : 2
K index : 0
Solar wind speed : 345.0 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.1 nPa
IMF : 3.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.3 nT South
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A4
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
Recent significant solar flare activity :