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Re: Solar Activity Report for 12/12/05

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  • space1weather
    ... this ... One of ... region ... 24. I ... of ... David, Region 835 is not a reverse polarity group so it s latitude location is somewhat meaningless. Plus
    Message 1 of 6 , Dec 14, 2005
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      --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
      wrote:
      >
      > There isn't much to talk about in the way of solar and geomagnetic
      > activity. There are four sunspot regions visible, but none of them
      > look to have the potential of generating a significant flare at
      this
      > time. However, what is interesting is where the sunspots are.
      One of
      > them, sunspot region 835, is at a high solar latitude. Remember a
      > little while back when I mentioned that the first high latitude
      > sunspot had shown up? This is number two. Meanwhile, sunspot
      region
      > 822 is almost at the solar equator. This is exactly what I would
      > expect to see during the transition between Cycle 23 and Cycle
      24. I
      > honestly think we're seeing the first signs of Cycle 24 starting to
      > take shape. The minimum is expected to come during the last half
      of
      > 2006. I'd say we're right on track.
      >
      > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
      >
      > NOAA sunspot number : 41
      > SFI : 88
      > A index : 10
      > K index : 1
      >
      > Solar wind speed : 425.5 km/sec
      > Solar wind density : 2.0 protons/cc
      > Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa
      >
      > IMF : 7.7 nT
      > IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT South
      >
      > GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A7
      >
      > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      > No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
      >
      > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      > No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
      >
      > Solar activity forecast :
      > Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three
      > days (13-15 December).
      >
      > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      > The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 13
      > December and should be predominantly quiet for 14-15 December.
      >
      > Recent significant solar flare activity :
      > None


      David,


      Region 835 is not a reverse polarity group so it's latitude location
      is somewhat meaningless. Plus N18 is no big deal. There probably
      have been about 7-10 this year already with a higher latitude.
      Although I have not seen one in the past 2-3 months or more.

      The new groups will eventually start showing up in the 25-35
      latitude range or even higher. Now there have been a few reverse
      polarity groups already in the past year or so but they were at the
      lower latitudes.

      I thought July 2007 could end up being solar minimum so we could
      very well start to see some new cycle groups show up in the next 3-6
      months. A few of the recent sunspot cycles had new groups show up
      about 12-18 months before minimum. The time frame would be pushed
      back of course if the next minimum was much later than July
      2007.



      Jim
    • David
      ... According to this, the minimum is supposed to come about a year from now. Personally, and this is just a hunch with no hard evidence to back it up, I
      Message 2 of 6 , Dec 20, 2005
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        >
        > David,
        >
        >
        > Region 835 is not a reverse polarity group so it's latitude location
        > is somewhat meaningless. Plus N18 is no big deal. There probably
        > have been about 7-10 this year already with a higher latitude.
        > Although I have not seen one in the past 2-3 months or more.
        >
        > The new groups will eventually start showing up in the 25-35
        > latitude range or even higher. Now there have been a few reverse
        > polarity groups already in the past year or so but they were at the
        > lower latitudes.
        >
        > I thought July 2007 could end up being solar minimum so we could
        > very well start to see some new cycle groups show up in the next 3-6
        > months. A few of the recent sunspot cycles had new groups show up
        > about 12-18 months before minimum. The time frame would be pushed
        > back of course if the next minimum was much later than July
        > 2007.
        >

        According to this, the minimum is supposed to come about a year from
        now. Personally, and this is just a hunch with no hard evidence to
        back it up, I think we're going to see it earlier rather than later.

        http://groups.yahoo.com/group/methanehydrateclub/message/2583
      • David
        Cycle 23 peaked lower than Cycle 22, which peaked lower than Cycle 21. I say the trend continues. How about you? Think we ll see another double-peak cycle?
        Message 3 of 6 , Dec 20, 2005
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          Cycle 23 peaked lower than Cycle 22, which peaked lower than Cycle 21.
          I say the trend continues. How about you? Think we'll see another
          double-peak cycle?
        • space1weather
          ... 21. ... I will officially be making a Cycle 24 forecast some time in late 2006 but I will have to rely on the memory of my extensive sunspot cycle research
          Message 4 of 6 , Dec 22, 2005
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            --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
            wrote:
            >
            > Cycle 23 peaked lower than Cycle 22, which peaked lower than Cycle
            21.
            > I say the trend continues. How about you? Think we'll see another
            > double-peak cycle?
            >

            I will officially be making a Cycle 24 forecast some time in late 2006
            but I will have to rely on the memory of my extensive sunspot cycle
            research in the mid 90's if you want one now.

            I thought that Gleisberg Cycle's would bottom out with higher lows
            between now and 2500 AD and this is why Cycle 23, while low, was not
            all that low, compared to the prior cycle activity early last century.

            So Cycle 24 should not be much lower than 23 and I think it has a very
            good chance of exceeding 23. Let's watch how the magnetic strength of
            the poles changes throughout 2006.

            A double peak looks likely when you take into consideration the
            current cycle length and the planets effect upon this. You would
            probably need to see Cycle 23's length either reach or exceed the 13
            year mark for this pattern to change.


            Jim
          • space1weather
            ... location ... the ... 3-6 ... up ... pushed ... from ... later. ... Well we would be seeing a fairly high smoothed monthly low then around solar minimum.
            Message 5 of 6 , Dec 22, 2005
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              --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
              wrote:
              >
              >
              > >
              > > David,
              > >
              > >
              > > Region 835 is not a reverse polarity group so it's latitude
              location
              > > is somewhat meaningless. Plus N18 is no big deal. There probably
              > > have been about 7-10 this year already with a higher latitude.
              > > Although I have not seen one in the past 2-3 months or more.
              > >
              > > The new groups will eventually start showing up in the 25-35
              > > latitude range or even higher. Now there have been a few reverse
              > > polarity groups already in the past year or so but they were at
              the
              > > lower latitudes.
              > >
              > > I thought July 2007 could end up being solar minimum so we could
              > > very well start to see some new cycle groups show up in the next
              3-6
              > > months. A few of the recent sunspot cycles had new groups show
              up
              > > about 12-18 months before minimum. The time frame would be
              pushed
              > > back of course if the next minimum was much later than July
              > > 2007.
              > >
              >
              > According to this, the minimum is supposed to come about a year
              from
              > now. Personally, and this is just a hunch with no hard evidence to
              > back it up, I think we're going to see it earlier rather than
              later.
              >
              > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/methanehydrateclub/message/2583
              >

              Well we would be seeing a fairly high smoothed monthly low then
              around solar minimum. Cycle 19 had that and we saw the highest
              sunspot activity level ever. I would hate to rely on this one
              example as a forecasting parameter but OTOH I might give it some
              weight since I think the overall long term cycle pattern points
              towards an increase. We could end up seeing a good light show David
              if your thoughts are correct.


              Jim
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