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Solar Activity Report for 12/3/05

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Sunspot region has grown dramatically in the last three days, and has been responsible for several very nice M-class flares,
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 3, 2005
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Sunspot region has grown dramatically in the last three days, and has
      been responsible for several very nice M-class flares, including an
      impressive M-7 class event. There haven't been any CME's really worth
      writing home about, but a couple of them looked to have at least a
      small halo component to them. That, coupled with the already elevated
      solar wind speed, could cause minor geomagnetic storm conditions over
      the next two or three days. At present, there are four numbered
      sunspot regions visible. Region 826, the source of the flares, has
      grown to the size of the diameter of Jupiter and is naked-eye visible.
      The official forecast calls for the possibility of more significant
      flares from region 826, but as quickly as the background X-ray flux is
      falling right now, I would frankly be surprised if that happened.
      Look for the solar wind speed to stay elevated due to coronal hole
      effects, and the possibility of geomagnetic storm conditions in 48 to
      72 hours.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 75
      SFI : 101
      A index : 12
      K index : 1

      Solar wind speed : 630.0 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.3 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.6 nPa

      IMF : 4.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.6 nT North

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B2

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a chance for an
      isolated X-flare from Region 826.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. On 05
      December, minor storm periods are possible due to CME activity from 02
      December.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      02-Dec-2005 2030Z M1.0
      02-Dec-2005 1012Z M7.8
      02-Dec-2005 0252Z M6.5
      30-Nov-2005 1752Z M1.4
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