Re: 884 mb ! w/ solar LULL!!!!
- --- In firstname.lastname@example.org, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
> > Interesting that the storm of all time would come with a lull.
> > does that say about the Mauder Min? Kinetic energy?This is a conclusion I 'feel', but it may be some time before I can
> Okay, this may be a stupid question, but what does it say?
articulate it. It would be this idea that with 'too' much electrical
organziations relative to radiative heating, so by means of kinetic
expressions . . . plus it may change how displacent currents behave
relative to thunderstorms. I am still trying to get exactly what we
are seeing real time.
With a reference to Steve MacDonald's work I want to talk about the
west track of Wilma. I conclude a more western jog and the hopeful
prospect of a Mexican landfall, which would severely weaken the storm
alia Mitch. I don't want to slight Mexicans in any way, but a
Yucatan hit would be far less devistating than a Tampa hit as a major
after no weakening crossing the open waters between Mexico and Cuba.
A cat 5 has stronger displacement current power requirements than
there are charges accumulated. The battery runs dry and the clouds
become less organized. It has nothing to do with 'shear'--these winds
are directly related to the microphysics of the clouds and causally
associated with the same winds. This is why a storm is never a cat 5
for more than a day or two.
Cloud tops warm.
So called shear is doubling over the same period.
At the same time the overall size of the storm grows in the region of
the intense capacitive couplings.
Last night there were about 2.5 k strikes throughout the night.
Tonight we have a 10k strike event which is OUTRAGOUS
for this time of year. Crazy high. This is a power source and sure
there is some feedback as the couplings to the GOM cause water vapor
to be there to diffuse, plus the Pacific couplings can send the jet
harder to feed the fronts, BUT even as power increases, even from
Africa or the Pacific ITCZ, a coupling in a category 5 storm is so
strong that it 'drains' the battery.
16-Oct-2005 1014.75 1010.00 11.90 5.03 -0.57
17-Oct-2005 1014.26 1009.45 12.30 5.03 -0.40
18-Oct-2005 1013.60 1009.05 10.70 5.15 -0.20
19-Oct-2005 1013.61 1008.75 12.70 5.64 -0.05
SOI barely rising--after dropping slightly. Slight dropping from
17th to 18th matches weakening today. This explains a Pacific source
of displacement currents that might help organize a storm.
Finally there is something I have to comment on. Presently this is
near the most low BP EVER recorded yet this is a 'category 4', not
a '5', not that this system has ANY real meaning. But apparently
this is due to the fact that nearby pressures are low, so that the
contrasting pressures reduces the winds. My comment would be that if
indeed pressures are this low EVERYWHERE, there may be some unusual
things going on with respect to steering currents and the
Anyway, I don't look at the models much. I am more interested in
strikes, and 10 k strikes in the mid CONUS is going to pump up the
high in the GOM . . . PERIOD. End of story. It's going to help
organize this storm, or at least help it maintain some intensity.
With any kind of ITCZ displacement currents, there is an expectancy
of a more western movement. And really intense organizing forces
SOUTH of the storm. That's because electrically west is how induction
would favor capacitive couplings--indeed why there IS an ITCZ. The
other reason is in the regions south, in the land of the 'duldrums',
there is couplings that provide feeding water vapor for the storm.
- All quite interesting!
For the record, Wilma was Cat 5 at one time, but has backed off a bit.
Two questions. One, how does all that tie in to the Maunder Minimum.
Two, how do you figure eyewall replacement cycles into the mix? At
one point, Wilma had not one, not two, but three concentric eyewalls.
She seems to have completed the cycle, though, and it starting to
build strength again.