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Re: 884 mb ! w/ solar LULL!!!!

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  • David
    - ... Okay, this may be a stupid question, but what does it say?
    Message 1 of 4 , Oct 19, 2005
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      -
      > Interesting that the storm of all time would come with a lull. What
      > does that say about the Mauder Min? Kinetic energy?
      >

      Okay, this may be a stupid question, but what does it say?
    • Mike Doran
      ... What ... This is a conclusion I feel , but it may be some time before I can articulate it. It would be this idea that with too much electrical
      Message 2 of 4 , Oct 19, 2005
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        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
        wrote:
        >
        > -
        > > Interesting that the storm of all time would come with a lull.
        What
        > > does that say about the Mauder Min? Kinetic energy?
        > >
        >
        > Okay, this may be a stupid question, but what does it say?
        >

        This is a conclusion I 'feel', but it may be some time before I can
        articulate it. It would be this idea that with 'too' much electrical
        organziations relative to radiative heating, so by means of kinetic
        expressions . . . plus it may change how displacent currents behave
        relative to thunderstorms. I am still trying to get exactly what we
        are seeing real time.

        With a reference to Steve MacDonald's work I want to talk about the
        west track of Wilma. I conclude a more western jog and the hopeful
        prospect of a Mexican landfall, which would severely weaken the storm
        alia Mitch. I don't want to slight Mexicans in any way, but a
        Yucatan hit would be far less devistating than a Tampa hit as a major
        after no weakening crossing the open waters between Mexico and Cuba.

        A cat 5 has stronger displacement current power requirements than
        there are charges accumulated. The battery runs dry and the clouds
        become less organized. It has nothing to do with 'shear'--these winds
        are directly related to the microphysics of the clouds and causally
        associated with the same winds. This is why a storm is never a cat 5
        for more than a day or two.

        http://home.att.net/~gigabite/WILMA19C.gif

        Cloud tops warm.

        http://home.att.net/~gigabite/WILMA19B.gif

        So called shear is doubling over the same period.

        http://home.att.net/~gigabite/WILMA19A.gif

        At the same time the overall size of the storm grows in the region of
        the intense capacitive couplings.

        From:

        http://www.lightningstorm.com

        Last night there were about 2.5 k strikes throughout the night.
        Tonight we have a 10k strike event which is OUTRAGOUS
        for this time of year. Crazy high. This is a power source and sure
        there is some feedback as the couplings to the GOM cause water vapor
        to be there to diffuse, plus the Pacific couplings can send the jet
        harder to feed the fronts, BUT even as power increases, even from
        Africa or the Pacific ITCZ, a coupling in a category 5 storm is so
        strong that it 'drains' the battery.



        http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
        lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/index.html



        16-Oct-2005 1014.75 1010.00 11.90 5.03 -0.57
        17-Oct-2005 1014.26 1009.45 12.30 5.03 -0.40
        18-Oct-2005 1013.60 1009.05 10.70 5.15 -0.20
        19-Oct-2005 1013.61 1008.75 12.70 5.64 -0.05

        SOI barely rising--after dropping slightly. Slight dropping from
        17th to 18th matches weakening today. This explains a Pacific source
        of displacement currents that might help organize a storm.

        Finally there is something I have to comment on. Presently this is
        near the most low BP EVER recorded yet this is a 'category 4', not
        a '5', not that this system has ANY real meaning. But apparently
        this is due to the fact that nearby pressures are low, so that the
        contrasting pressures reduces the winds. My comment would be that if
        indeed pressures are this low EVERYWHERE, there may be some unusual
        things going on with respect to steering currents and the
        baratropical models.

        Anyway, I don't look at the models much. I am more interested in
        strikes, and 10 k strikes in the mid CONUS is going to pump up the
        high in the GOM . . . PERIOD. End of story. It's going to help
        organize this storm, or at least help it maintain some intensity.
        With any kind of ITCZ displacement currents, there is an expectancy
        of a more western movement. And really intense organizing forces
        SOUTH of the storm. That's because electrically west is how induction
        would favor capacitive couplings--indeed why there IS an ITCZ. The
        other reason is in the regions south, in the land of the 'duldrums',
        there is couplings that provide feeding water vapor for the storm.
      • David
        All quite interesting! For the record, Wilma was Cat 5 at one time, but has backed off a bit. Two questions. One, how does all that tie in to the Maunder
        Message 3 of 4 , Oct 20, 2005
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          All quite interesting!

          For the record, Wilma was Cat 5 at one time, but has backed off a bit.
          Two questions. One, how does all that tie in to the Maunder Minimum.
          Two, how do you figure eyewall replacement cycles into the mix? At
          one point, Wilma had not one, not two, but three concentric eyewalls.
          She seems to have completed the cycle, though, and it starting to
          build strength again.
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