Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

884 mb ! w/ solar LULL!!!!

Expand Messages
  • Mike Doran
    VORTEX DATA MESSAGE Storm Name: WILMA (24L) Mission Number: 07 Flight ID: AF308 Observation Number: 16 Google Maps Vortex Position -- Click Here Time:
    Message 1 of 4 , Oct 19, 2005
    • 0 Attachment
      VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
      Storm Name: WILMA (24L)
      Mission Number: 07
      Flight ID: AF308
      Observation Number: 16 Google Maps Vortex Position -- Click Here
      Time: 08:00:30Z
      Latitude: 17.1°N
      Longitude: 82.3°W
      Location: 219 mi NNE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua
      Minimum height at 700 mb 2082 m
      Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
      Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
      Maximum flight level wind: NW (320°) @ 191 mph
      Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 3 mi SW
      (221°)
      Sea level pressure: 884 mb
      Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 50°F at 10082 feet
      Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 75°F at 9984 feet
      Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 50°F
      Eye character: CLOSED
      Eye shape: Circular
      Eye diameter: 5 mi
      Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700
      mb
      Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
      MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20

      Interesting that the storm of all time would come with a lull. What
      does that say about the Mauder Min? Kinetic energy?
    • David
      - ... Okay, this may be a stupid question, but what does it say?
      Message 2 of 4 , Oct 19, 2005
      • 0 Attachment
        -
        > Interesting that the storm of all time would come with a lull. What
        > does that say about the Mauder Min? Kinetic energy?
        >

        Okay, this may be a stupid question, but what does it say?
      • Mike Doran
        ... What ... This is a conclusion I feel , but it may be some time before I can articulate it. It would be this idea that with too much electrical
        Message 3 of 4 , Oct 19, 2005
        • 0 Attachment
          --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
          wrote:
          >
          > -
          > > Interesting that the storm of all time would come with a lull.
          What
          > > does that say about the Mauder Min? Kinetic energy?
          > >
          >
          > Okay, this may be a stupid question, but what does it say?
          >

          This is a conclusion I 'feel', but it may be some time before I can
          articulate it. It would be this idea that with 'too' much electrical
          organziations relative to radiative heating, so by means of kinetic
          expressions . . . plus it may change how displacent currents behave
          relative to thunderstorms. I am still trying to get exactly what we
          are seeing real time.

          With a reference to Steve MacDonald's work I want to talk about the
          west track of Wilma. I conclude a more western jog and the hopeful
          prospect of a Mexican landfall, which would severely weaken the storm
          alia Mitch. I don't want to slight Mexicans in any way, but a
          Yucatan hit would be far less devistating than a Tampa hit as a major
          after no weakening crossing the open waters between Mexico and Cuba.

          A cat 5 has stronger displacement current power requirements than
          there are charges accumulated. The battery runs dry and the clouds
          become less organized. It has nothing to do with 'shear'--these winds
          are directly related to the microphysics of the clouds and causally
          associated with the same winds. This is why a storm is never a cat 5
          for more than a day or two.

          http://home.att.net/~gigabite/WILMA19C.gif

          Cloud tops warm.

          http://home.att.net/~gigabite/WILMA19B.gif

          So called shear is doubling over the same period.

          http://home.att.net/~gigabite/WILMA19A.gif

          At the same time the overall size of the storm grows in the region of
          the intense capacitive couplings.

          From:

          http://www.lightningstorm.com

          Last night there were about 2.5 k strikes throughout the night.
          Tonight we have a 10k strike event which is OUTRAGOUS
          for this time of year. Crazy high. This is a power source and sure
          there is some feedback as the couplings to the GOM cause water vapor
          to be there to diffuse, plus the Pacific couplings can send the jet
          harder to feed the fronts, BUT even as power increases, even from
          Africa or the Pacific ITCZ, a coupling in a category 5 storm is so
          strong that it 'drains' the battery.



          http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
          lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/index.html



          16-Oct-2005 1014.75 1010.00 11.90 5.03 -0.57
          17-Oct-2005 1014.26 1009.45 12.30 5.03 -0.40
          18-Oct-2005 1013.60 1009.05 10.70 5.15 -0.20
          19-Oct-2005 1013.61 1008.75 12.70 5.64 -0.05

          SOI barely rising--after dropping slightly. Slight dropping from
          17th to 18th matches weakening today. This explains a Pacific source
          of displacement currents that might help organize a storm.

          Finally there is something I have to comment on. Presently this is
          near the most low BP EVER recorded yet this is a 'category 4', not
          a '5', not that this system has ANY real meaning. But apparently
          this is due to the fact that nearby pressures are low, so that the
          contrasting pressures reduces the winds. My comment would be that if
          indeed pressures are this low EVERYWHERE, there may be some unusual
          things going on with respect to steering currents and the
          baratropical models.

          Anyway, I don't look at the models much. I am more interested in
          strikes, and 10 k strikes in the mid CONUS is going to pump up the
          high in the GOM . . . PERIOD. End of story. It's going to help
          organize this storm, or at least help it maintain some intensity.
          With any kind of ITCZ displacement currents, there is an expectancy
          of a more western movement. And really intense organizing forces
          SOUTH of the storm. That's because electrically west is how induction
          would favor capacitive couplings--indeed why there IS an ITCZ. The
          other reason is in the regions south, in the land of the 'duldrums',
          there is couplings that provide feeding water vapor for the storm.
        • David
          All quite interesting! For the record, Wilma was Cat 5 at one time, but has backed off a bit. Two questions. One, how does all that tie in to the Maunder
          Message 4 of 4 , Oct 20, 2005
          • 0 Attachment
            All quite interesting!

            For the record, Wilma was Cat 5 at one time, but has backed off a bit.
            Two questions. One, how does all that tie in to the Maunder Minimum.
            Two, how do you figure eyewall replacement cycles into the mix? At
            one point, Wilma had not one, not two, but three concentric eyewalls.
            She seems to have completed the cycle, though, and it starting to
            build strength again.
          Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.