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Solar Activity Report for 9/13/05

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  • David
    ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Wow, where to start? So much has gone on over the last few days. How about aurora
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 13, 2005
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      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Wow, where to start? So much has gone on over the last few days. How
      about aurora being spotted as far south as Arizona? The first round
      of big flares from sunspot region 808 didn't fire any CME's directly
      at us, but they were close enough to give Earth's magnetosphere a
      glancing blow and create some breathtaking aurora, as can be seen here
      : http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01sep05_page5.htm . At
      one point, the solar wind speed was on the happy side of 800 km/sec,
      although it has slowed down for the time being. Remember the "for the
      time being part." I had thought that region 808 was calming down a
      bit. The background X-ray flux was decreasing, and the X-class flares
      had stopped. Wrong, but thanks for playing anyway. Actually, region
      808 has decayed and decreased in size a little, but that didn't stop
      it from producing two more X-class flares within the last 24 hours.
      That makes a total of 8 since it burst on the scene with a monster
      X-17 event on the 7th. The 15th has the potential for being genuinely
      intriguing. Apparently, one of today's X-class events launched a CME
      in our direction. There's a possibility of G-5 geomagnetic storm
      conditions. Stay tuned, and if you have a good view of the northern
      sky, take a peek tomorrow night and Thursday night, especially around
      local midnight. Further enhancing the effect is the fact that we're
      close to the autumnal equinox. For reasons nobody fully understands,
      aurora are more likely to happen around the equinoxes.

      As I write this, the X-ray flux graph is showing an X-class event in
      progress. That's two X-class flares less than 4 hours apart. It's
      shaping up to look like a long-duration flare. This could get fun.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 95
      SFI : 114
      K index : 39
      A index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 577.9 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa

      IMF : 4.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.1 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B5

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
      the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be strong.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R3 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 808 has
      potential for M and X-class activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm
      levels on 14 September. On 15 September, major to severe storm periods
      are possible due to the expected arrival of the CME associated with
      today's X1 flare. Conditions should subside to mostly unsettled to
      active levels by 16 September, with isolated minor storm periods possible.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      13-Sep-2005 2322Z X1.7
      13-Sep-2005 1927Z X1.5
      13-Sep-2005 1121Z M1.3
      12-Sep-2005 2009Z M1.5
      12-Sep-2005 0903Z M6.1
      12-Sep-2005 0701Z M1.3
      12-Sep-2005 0505Z M1.5
      11-Sep-2005 2040Z M1.3
      11-Sep-2005 1312Z M3.0
      11-Sep-2005 0235Z M3.4
      10-Sep-2005 2211Z X2.1
      10-Sep-2005 1936Z M4.1
      10-Sep-2005 1643Z X1.1
      10-Sep-2005 0907Z M1.9
      10-Sep-2005 0614Z M3.7
      09-Sep-2005 2004Z X6.2
      09-Sep-2005 1751Z M1.9
      09-Sep-2005 0959Z X3.6
      09-Sep-2005 0548Z M6.2
      09-Sep-2005 0503Z M1.8
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