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Solar Activity Report for 9/9/05

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  • David
    ** S-2 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Wow. I mean, wow. Really. Wow. Five...count em...five X-class flares have been
    Message 1 of 3 , Sep 9, 2005
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      ** S-2 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Wow. I mean, wow. Really. Wow. Five...count 'em...five X-class
      flares have been produced within the last 48 hours, the strongest
      being an X-17 monster. It has been a long time since we've seen this
      kind of activity, and I'm not sure we had five X-class flares so close
      together, even at the top of the sunspot cycle. I'll have to research
      that. There's a huge difference between the NOAA SFI and the
      Princeton Observatory measurement. NOAA says 99, Princeton says 311!!
      Given the relatively low sunspot number, I would actually be more
      inclined to believe the NOAA measurement, but let's see what it is
      tomorrow. Given sunspot region 808's position, the CME's from all of
      this incredible flare activity has not been Earth-directed. However,
      we could catch some glancing blows over the next couple of days, and
      region 808 is rotating around with each passing day. If the current
      activity level keeps up, it could get very interesting over the next
      week and a half.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 59
      SFI : 99 (or 311!?)
      A index : 21
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 453.0 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 10.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : n/a

      IMF : 8.1 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.8 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B8

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be strong.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S3 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R3 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at high to very high levels. Region
      808 will continue to produce major flare activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm
      levels. Possible activity that occurred today is expected to become
      geoeffective on 11 September and produce active to storm levels with
      isolated major storming periods possible. Isolated minor storm
      conditions are expected on 10 September due to ongoing transient flow.
      The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected
      to continue through the next three days. The greater than 100 MeV
      proton event now in progress is expected to continue through 11
      September. Today's X6/2b flare may enhance the existing proton events.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :

      09-Sep-2005 2004Z X6.2
      09-Sep-2005 1751Z M1.9
      09-Sep-2005 0959Z X3.6
      09-Sep-2005 0548Z M6.2
      09-Sep-2005 0503Z M1.8
      09-Sep-2005 0300Z X1.1
      09-Sep-2005 0236Z M1.1
      09-Sep-2005 0219Z M1.0
      08-Sep-2005 2106Z X5.4
      08-Sep-2005 2029Z M2.1
      08-Sep-2005 1703Z M2.1
      07-Sep-2005 1740Z X17.0
    • Mike Doran
      We ve had two sets of thunderstorms that have matched with the elevated solar activity. First rain in 6 months plus. ... this ... close ... research ... 311!!
      Message 2 of 3 , Sep 10, 2005
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        We've had two sets of thunderstorms that have matched with the
        elevated solar activity.

        First rain in 6 months plus.

        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
        wrote:
        > ** S-2 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
        > ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
        >
        > Wow. I mean, wow. Really. Wow. Five...count 'em...five X-class
        > flares have been produced within the last 48 hours, the strongest
        > being an X-17 monster. It has been a long time since we've seen
        this
        > kind of activity, and I'm not sure we had five X-class flares so
        close
        > together, even at the top of the sunspot cycle. I'll have to
        research
        > that. There's a huge difference between the NOAA SFI and the
        > Princeton Observatory measurement. NOAA says 99, Princeton says
        311!!
        > Given the relatively low sunspot number, I would actually be more
        > inclined to believe the NOAA measurement, but let's see what it is
        > tomorrow. Given sunspot region 808's position, the CME's from all
        of
        > this incredible flare activity has not been Earth-directed.
        However,
        > we could catch some glancing blows over the next couple of days, and
        > region 808 is rotating around with each passing day. If the current
        > activity level keeps up, it could get very interesting over the next
        > week and a half.
        >
        > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
        >
        > NOAA sunspot number : 59
        > SFI : 99 (or 311!?)
        > A index : 21
        > K index : 2
        >
        > Solar wind speed : 453.0 km/sec
        > Solar wind density : 10.2 protons/cc
        > Solar wind pressure : n/a
        >
        > IMF : 8.1 nT
        > IMF Orientation : 2.8 nT South
        >
        > GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B8
        >
        > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        > Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Solar radiation
        > storms reaching the S2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the
        R3
        > level occurred.
        >
        > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be strong.
        > Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected. Solar
        radiation
        > storms reaching the S3 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
        > the R3 level are expected.
        >
        > Solar activity forecast :
        > Solar activity is expected to be at high to very high levels. Region
        > 808 will continue to produce major flare activity.
        >
        > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        > The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm
        > levels. Possible activity that occurred today is expected to become
        > geoeffective on 11 September and produce active to storm levels with
        > isolated major storming periods possible. Isolated minor storm
        > conditions are expected on 10 September due to ongoing transient
        flow.
        > The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is
        expected
        > to continue through the next three days. The greater than 100 MeV
        > proton event now in progress is expected to continue through 11
        > September. Today's X6/2b flare may enhance the existing proton
        events.
        >
        > Recent significant solar flare activity :
        >
        > 09-Sep-2005 2004Z X6.2
        > 09-Sep-2005 1751Z M1.9
        > 09-Sep-2005 0959Z X3.6
        > 09-Sep-2005 0548Z M6.2
        > 09-Sep-2005 0503Z M1.8
        > 09-Sep-2005 0300Z X1.1
        > 09-Sep-2005 0236Z M1.1
        > 09-Sep-2005 0219Z M1.0
        > 08-Sep-2005 2106Z X5.4
        > 08-Sep-2005 2029Z M2.1
        > 08-Sep-2005 1703Z M2.1
        > 07-Sep-2005 1740Z X17.0
      • space1weather
        ... Well the weather pattern that had been around since Katrina went by ended yesterday. We now have humidity back. Now we need some welcome rains..Katrina
        Message 3 of 3 , Sep 10, 2005
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          --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
          <narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
          > We've had two sets of thunderstorms that have matched with the
          > elevated solar activity.
          >
          > First rain in 6 months plus.
          >

          Well the weather pattern that had been around since Katrina went by
          ended yesterday. We now have humidity back. Now we need some welcome
          rains..Katrina gave us more in one day than almost all of August but
          we are still dry.


          David...808 blowing big time.....Oct-Nov 2003 Monster flare... plus
          many others stretched out over 7-12 days plus two responsible
          regions... 486 & ???484 or 488....

          March 1989 same thing big but stretched out ......June 1991 five X
          >10 but stretched out also....This time it's condensed...Pole
          magnetic values are LOW at this stage...that is the key to why this
          is happening.

          Weak poles ...stronger low latitude magnetic field...that equals
          cyclical impulses....magnetically complexed groups....Major
          flaring....



          Jim
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