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Solar Activity Report for 8/23/05...

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  • David
    ...or bang BANG bang. ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Sunspot region 798 has come alive and fired off 3 M-class flares
    Message 1 of 3 , Aug 23, 2005
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      ...or bang BANG bang.

      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Sunspot region 798 has come alive and fired off 3 M-class flares
      within the last 36 hours...one of them a very respectable M-5 shot.
      S-2 solar radiation storm conditions have been observed within the
      last 24 hours. All three flares were long duration events. Veteran
      readers of these reports will recall that long durarion flares are
      more likely to produce a CME. At least the first two didn't
      disappoint. Their associated CME's had a definite halo component to
      them, albeit a bit lopsided due to region 798's location near the
      western limb of the solar disk. CME arrival is expected sometime
      within the next 24 - 48 hours, and aurora in the higher latitudes are
      a definite possibility. The third flare is still ongoing as I write
      this. My guess is that there will be a CME associated with it,
      although it may miss us. Stay tuned for more information on that.
      Lasty, the small coronal hole I mentioned a few days ago has now
      rotated into an Earth-pointing position. Look for high-speed solar
      wind gusts from it to arrive on the 24th or 25th. That could serve to
      enhance what could be already existing geomagnetic storm conditions
      due to CME impact. The next 48 - 72 hours should be interesting.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 85
      SFI : 112
      A index : 12
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 419.9 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 4.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.3 nPa

      IMF : 8.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.9 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
      Solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level are expected. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 798 could produce
      another M-class flare as it rotates around the west limb.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled until the
      arrival of the first CME that occurred early on Aug 22. Storm
      conditions are possible on Aug 24 and 25 due to CME activity. The
      greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next
      24 to 48 hours.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      23-Aug-2005 1444Z M2.7
      22-Aug-2005 1727Z M5.6
      22-Aug-2005 0133Z M2.6
    • Mike Doran
      Jim would note SW under 500 km/sec with respect to Katrina . . . now bombing to 990 mbs. ... are ... to ... radiation ... next
      Message 2 of 3 , Aug 25, 2005
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        Jim would note SW under 500 km/sec with respect to Katrina . . . now
        bombing to 990 mbs.

        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
        wrote:
        > ...or bang BANG bang.
        >
        > ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
        > ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
        >
        > Sunspot region 798 has come alive and fired off 3 M-class flares
        > within the last 36 hours...one of them a very respectable M-5 shot.
        > S-2 solar radiation storm conditions have been observed within the
        > last 24 hours. All three flares were long duration events. Veteran
        > readers of these reports will recall that long durarion flares are
        > more likely to produce a CME. At least the first two didn't
        > disappoint. Their associated CME's had a definite halo component to
        > them, albeit a bit lopsided due to region 798's location near the
        > western limb of the solar disk. CME arrival is expected sometime
        > within the next 24 - 48 hours, and aurora in the higher latitudes
        are
        > a definite possibility. The third flare is still ongoing as I write
        > this. My guess is that there will be a CME associated with it,
        > although it may miss us. Stay tuned for more information on that.
        > Lasty, the small coronal hole I mentioned a few days ago has now
        > rotated into an Earth-pointing position. Look for high-speed solar
        > wind gusts from it to arrive on the 24th or 25th. That could serve
        to
        > enhance what could be already existing geomagnetic storm conditions
        > due to CME impact. The next 48 - 72 hours should be interesting.
        >
        > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
        >
        > NOAA sunspot number : 85
        > SFI : 112
        > A index : 12
        > K index : 2
        >
        > Solar wind speed : 419.9 km/sec
        > Solar wind density : 4.7 protons/cc
        > Solar wind pressure : 1.3 nPa
        >
        > IMF : 8.9 nT
        > IMF Orientation : 2.9 nT South
        >
        > GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1
        >
        > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        > Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Solar
        radiation
        > storms reaching the S2 level occurred.
        >
        > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
        > Solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level are expected. Radio
        > blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
        >
        > Solar activity forecast :
        > Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 798 could produce
        > another M-class flare as it rotates around the west limb.
        >
        > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        > The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled until the
        > arrival of the first CME that occurred early on Aug 22. Storm
        > conditions are possible on Aug 24 and 25 due to CME activity. The
        > greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for the
        next
        > 24 to 48 hours.
        >
        > Recent significant solar flare activity :
        > 23-Aug-2005 1444Z M2.7
        > 22-Aug-2005 1727Z M5.6
        > 22-Aug-2005 0133Z M2.6
      • space1weather
        ... now ... Mike, I would note how she started to bomb as quick as any storm the past few weeks from birth to hurricane strength while the sun was starting to
        Message 3 of 3 , Aug 25, 2005
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          --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
          <narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
          > Jim would note SW under 500 km/sec with respect to Katrina . . .
          now
          > bombing to 990 mbs.


          Mike,


          I would note how she started to bomb as quick as any storm the past
          few weeks from birth to hurricane strength while the sun was
          starting to become active again.

          There have not been to many eruptions the past few weeks worth
          mentioning and the strong proton event speaks for itself. I think we
          had to go back almost three weeks to find a stronger x-ray flare
          than the M6.4/1N that occurred early on the 25th.

          Now already formed tropical systems tend not to strengthen much
          while the solar winds are rising above the 500 km/sec level but once
          the SW's reach their peak it seems like they can... even above 500
          km/sec. Emily comes to mind and I recall someone else..??? Irene ???
          but I can not be positive right now.


          Jim
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