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Re: Solar Activity Report for 8/20/05--Jim too

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  • Mike Doran
    Not only did we have on 8/20 that reading below 500 km/sec, but there were other factors in play: Down in the New Orleans, in the oceans--hot:
    Message 1 of 2 , Aug 23, 2005
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      Not only did we have on 8/20 that reading below 500 km/sec, but there
      were other factors in play:

      Down in the New Orleans, in the oceans--hot:

      http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?
      product=sst®ion=gulfmexico¬humbs=0


      SSTs alone are not enough, no?

      How is life treating you?

      Find out:

      http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?
      product=chlor®ion=gulfmexico¬humbs=0

      Eg:

      http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/regions/gulfmexico/chlor/fy1d/2005/thumb
      /050821.233.1310.fydthumb.jpg

      And look what's coming:

      http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?
      YEAR=2005&MO=AUG&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=10L.NONAME&PROD=ir&PHOT=yes&AGE=
      Latest&ARCHIVE=active&TYPE=geo&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&CURRENT=20050823.0715.
      goes12.x.ir1km_bw.10LNONAME.20kts-1012mb-217N-
      745W.jpg&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc05/ATL/10L.NONAME/ir/geo/1k
      m_bw&STYLE=tables&CURRENT_ATCF=al102005.05081506.gif&ATCF_NAME=al10200
      5&SUB_PRODUCT=1km_bw

      I can further add from my EMF bio standpoint that the reason the
      storm is so elongated from SW to NE is due IMHO to the QBO's impact
      on the ionosphere. Over ten years ago, Dr. Gray used the QBO as a
      hurricane surpression factor, but now there is so much CO2 in the
      oceans that outgassing from a surface low is able to overcome the
      strong negative QBO's impact on point EMF organization events
      (tropical storms).

      The QBO is an ion wind in the tropics that reverses about every two
      years, and is reflective via induction of the overal state of the
      global electrical circuit. This particular state of the QBO is why I
      called for a Michelle like storm this fall back on March 31, also
      give the state of drought in Cuba. As it turned out, Dennis took care
      of Cuba from the drought standpoint, but I still think that the QBO
      is going to give us a fall storm that moves from the Western
      Carribean to the NE. We shall see.


      http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/qbo.data


      The baratropical models, meanwhile, are now starting to see things on
      their event horizons.


      http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?
      time=2005082300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation



      UKmet has now jumped on board and shows a storm bombing in the
      eastern gulf

      THe new GFS just out takes it to FL then NC

      http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?
      time=2005082306&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation


      Two days ago we had a 60 k strike event and then yesterday it was a
      50k event even with a falling SOI. Those huge kinds of displacement
      currents move to the dry air in the tropics and do NOTHING to cloud
      microphysics--because the air is so dry. But the displacement current
      go to that air because it is dry. I know, paradox. Again, it has to
      do with Coulomb's law and the 'k' values involved. Or the dielectric
      constant if you are looking at it as a capacitive coupling.

      In any event, as you cannot see over the event horizon of
      baratropical behaviors, you can see under the event horizon of MJO,
      which is a movement of water around the earth. That water movement
      will bring more strikes w/ thunderstorms in Africa, which powers
      storms from yet another part of the ITCZ, and then brings the water
      from which the couplings can organize.

      SSTs do impact the whole deal because they not only provide latent
      energy for convection but the warmer they are, the more conductive,
      by about one percent of an increase in conductivity per one degF
      increase in SST.




      Consider, again the 'k' value between air and water.

      F = k*Q1*Q2/d2


      Q1 = the quantity of charge on object 1 (in Coulombs)

      Q2 = the quantity of charge on object 2 (in Coulombs)

      d = the distance of separation between the two objects (in meters).

      The symbol k is a proportionality constant known as the Coulomb's law
      constant.


      k depends on the material that the charged objects are immersed in.

      Air

      k = 9.0 x 109 N • m2 / C2.

      Water

      k = 7.0 x 108 N • m2 / C2. .

      Ice water as in cold cloud tops has an even smaller value than water,
      about 10 percent smaller.

      Dry air will allow strong electrical currents between the ocean and
      ionosphere (all the way up to space) by AC currents to dissapate
      energy better, essentially reduce the voltage potential that the
      ionosphere has, even from days when there are high levels of strike
      activity. If there is no water nearby, there is no cloud microphysics
      modulations. With this in mind, and in mind that the tropics are the
      warmest and therefore most conductive, most apt to couple with the
      ionosphere electrically electrical energies from strikes, let's look
      at two phenomenons, SAL and MJO. SAL is about dusty, dry air from
      Africa whereas MJO is about the movements of water around the globe.
      The MJO is extremely important to this discussion, as I have alluded,
      because of the 'k' value at the same time it is what is changed,
      electrically. No water, no asymmetries from extremely high DC fields
      between ionosphere and ocean.

      There are a number of climatology lessons that should jump out at you
      if you are tracking. For instance, it is now known that the glacial
      was much drier than it is today. Again, less clouds to be modulated
      by the capacitive couplings, more areas where power can be lost from
      convective activity over the terresphere. Then there is the Younger
      Dyras, where water was diverted from the Mississippi from what was to
      become the Great Lakes to the Atlantic--a very cold spell followed.
      That's what a combination of a reduction in nutrients to the GOM
      meant to conductivity increased biologically, and at the same time
      what dilution meant to the Atlantic--an overall drop in conductivity
      in the oceans. Now consider in the short run what happens when a
      hurricane drops a lot of water on a region--it relatively dilutes!
      This is one reason for a calm after the storm.

      Anyway, to the SAL and MJO. The idea, I cannot repeat enough, is to
      see over the event horizons presented by purely baratropical models,
      which due to turbulance from the very forces that are being described
      here, cannot be modeled much past 5 days. So you have these slower,
      more predictable movements of water in the air globally, that have
      huge 'k' value meaning, and then therefore alter the general
      functioning of cloud microphysics in a region. Too much dry air, all
      the powering lighting strikes from Africa, and North and South
      America--all couple harmlessly to the dry air and no microphysics
      changes occur. There is no water to relatively diffuse and no air to
      subsist. No nearby clouds for diffused water vapor to be protected by
      its 'k' value, allowing then for more and more convection. Appreciate
      that this occurs over the tropics as it is the most warm and
      conductive part of the oceans . . . see

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_precip/gif/am_ir_monthly_
      1.gif

      for MJO

      and

      http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.jpg

      for the SAL


      --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
      wrote:
      > Sunspot region 798 is making things at least a little bit
      interesting
      > by showing some rapid growth, but so far, there hasn't been anything
      > in the way of a significant flare. The background X-ray flux is
      > showing a steady upward trend, however, so there's at least a little
      > bit of activity associated with it. The Earth has emerged from the
      > last coronal hole solar wind stream, and the solar wind speed is
      back
      > down under 400. There is a coronal hole on the central meridian,
      > although it looks to be located too far south to be sending anything
      > out way. Beyond that, there's a small equatorial coronal hole
      coming
      > onto view. We might get a gentle brush from it in a week or so.
      >
      > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
      >
      > NOAA sunspot number : 74
      > SFI : 98
      > A index : 5
      > K index : 2
      >
      > Solar wind speed : 390.4 km/sec
      > Solar wind density : 2.6 protons/cc
      > Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa
      >
      > IMF : 4.5 nT
      > IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT North
      >
      > GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1
      >
      > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      > No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
      >
      > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      > No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
      >
      > Solar Activity Forecast :
      > Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Most activity is
      > expected in Region 798.
      >
      > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      > The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.
      >
      > Recent significant solar flare activity :
      > None
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