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Re: Solar Activity Report for 8/11/05

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  • space1weather
    ... complicated. On ... the ... I asked that coronal hole question to a well regarded SEC solar expert years ago. She said she did not have the answer. Well
    Message 1 of 16 , Aug 20, 2005
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      , "David" <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
      > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
      >
      > If this is true, it just made things a whole lot more
      complicated. On
      > a global scale, we know that an absence of sunspots, even for a
      > relatively short time, can cause a striking effect. From what I've
      > seen, though, I don't believe coronal hole frequency changes with
      the
      > sunspot cycles.

      I asked that coronal hole question to a well regarded SEC solar
      expert years ago. She said she did not have the answer. Well if the
      aurora was not seen for decades in the northern latitudes during the
      Maunder minimum then the coronal holes had to have been absent
      during the lulls.

      Now I know you can have very low geomagnetic activity...like the
      latest ...with some fairly strong 700 km/sec winds but something odd
      would have to happen with the IMF-earth's magnetic field for us to
      have no high latitude storming everyone once in a while.

      People may not have known what the northern lights actually wereback
      then but they were written about all the time. I have a book with
      historical sightings that goes back several centuries...with
      specific dates.. for the big ones

      Now if you believe like I have for quite some time and some recent
      papers are saying that the changes in the pole's polarities are
      related to the cyclical nature of their presence...espeically
      around maximum..when the poles reverse polarities (10/99-5/2000 C-
      hole one example) than this would make sense.

      I would imagine that the poles must get extremely weak...magnetic
      wise... or one pole completely dominates over the other and you
      almost just have one polarity.



      > I hadn't really thought about it in that way before, but I could
      see
      > the possibility.
      >
      > Okay, so if we have a case of different parts of the world being
      > affected in different ways by a high-speed solar wind, would the
      same
      > hold true for CME impacts and solar radiation storms?


      Absolutely and I have seen relationships with them. I believe the
      truth about these relationships have alluded us for so long because
      what seemed like an obvious relationship...ones investigated...
      didn't hold much water ... and what most likely is a relationship...
      never entered most peoples mind.

      The meteorological and climatological community have been in charge
      of most of this research...somewhat...and they just could not
      comprehend or admit as to how some areas could be effected and not
      others. I have had this exact discussions with many individuals
      within the field over the years.

      That was their biggest obstacle with them believing in my forecasts.
      Even after they occurred. They said that it could not effect us and
      not....maybe Colorado etc...

      Jim
    • David
      ... Even a blank sun can have a coronal hole make an appearance, as we ve seen, so I ll assume they were around during the Maunder Minimum. Then again, there
      Message 2 of 16 , Aug 21, 2005
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        > I asked that coronal hole question to a well regarded SEC solar
        > expert years ago. She said she did not have the answer. Well if the
        > aurora was not seen for decades in the northern latitudes during the
        > Maunder minimum then the coronal holes had to have been absent
        > during the lulls.

        Even a blank sun can have a coronal hole make an appearance, as we've
        seen, so I'll assume they were around during the Maunder Minimum.
        Then again, there was obviously something odd happening to suppress
        the sunspots to such a degree for a long (from our perspective) period
        of time, so who knows?

        >
        > Now I know you can have very low geomagnetic activity...like the
        > latest ...with some fairly strong 700 km/sec winds but something odd
        > would have to happen with the IMF-earth's magnetic field for us to
        > have no high latitude storming everyone once in a while.

        Agreed.

        >
        > People may not have known what the northern lights actually wereback
        > then but they were written about all the time. I have a book with
        > historical sightings that goes back several centuries...with
        > specific dates.. for the big ones
        >
        > Now if you believe like I have for quite some time and some recent
        > papers are saying that the changes in the pole's polarities are
        > related to the cyclical nature of their presence...espeically
        > around maximum..when the poles reverse polarities (10/99-5/2000 C-
        > hole one example) than this would make sense.
        >
        > I would imagine that the poles must get extremely weak...magnetic
        > wise... or one pole completely dominates over the other and you
        > almost just have one polarity.
        >

        I dunno, maybe. Or, the solar magnetic field could become really
        convoluted with north and south poles popping up in all sorts of odd
        places until it settles down into the new polarity.
      • space1weather
        ... we ve ... period ... Well I would tend to think you are right at first but if you think about it for a second we are only going by what has occured the
        Message 3 of 16 , Aug 25, 2005
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          --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
          wrote:

          >
          > Even a blank sun can have a coronal hole make an appearance, as
          we've
          > seen, so I'll assume they were around during the Maunder Minimum.
          > Then again, there was obviously something odd happening to suppress
          > the sunspots to such a degree for a long (from our perspective)
          period
          > of time, so who knows?



          Well I would tend to think you are right at first but if you think
          about it for a second we are only going by what has occured the past
          few decades.

          The poles are strongest towards minimum and they can wax and wane
          almost throughout the whole cycle except for the short stint right
          after solar minimum and during the rise towards maximum.

          If the sun is extremely quiet than the poles have to be also....or
          at least out of character from what they have been behaving like for
          the past few decades.

          Almost everything... flares, c-holes, sunspots , geomagnetic
          storming...etc... follow the polar changes.

          Could they pop up everywhere like you mentioned? I don't know...
          maybe....but in a way they do already...with sunspot regions and
          coronal holes. I could not disregard any theory with what little we
          know about it. I seem to recall a similar theory regarding the
          earth's magnetic flip..although different.



          Jim
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