Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Solar Activity Report for 8/20/05

Expand Messages
  • David
    Sunspot region 798 is making things at least a little bit interesting by showing some rapid growth, but so far, there hasn t been anything in the way of a
    Message 1 of 2 , Aug 20, 2005
    View Source
    • 0 Attachment
      Sunspot region 798 is making things at least a little bit interesting
      by showing some rapid growth, but so far, there hasn't been anything
      in the way of a significant flare. The background X-ray flux is
      showing a steady upward trend, however, so there's at least a little
      bit of activity associated with it. The Earth has emerged from the
      last coronal hole solar wind stream, and the solar wind speed is back
      down under 400. There is a coronal hole on the central meridian,
      although it looks to be located too far south to be sending anything
      out way. Beyond that, there's a small equatorial coronal hole coming
      onto view. We might get a gentle brush from it in a week or so.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 74
      SFI : 98
      A index : 5
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 390.4 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.6 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa

      IMF : 4.5 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT North

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar Activity Forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Most activity is
      expected in Region 798.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
    • Mike Doran
      Not only did we have on 8/20 that reading below 500 km/sec, but there were other factors in play: Down in the New Orleans, in the oceans--hot:
      Message 2 of 2 , Aug 23, 2005
      View Source
      • 0 Attachment
        Not only did we have on 8/20 that reading below 500 km/sec, but there
        were other factors in play:

        Down in the New Orleans, in the oceans--hot:

        http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?
        product=sst®ion=gulfmexico¬humbs=0


        SSTs alone are not enough, no?

        How is life treating you?

        Find out:

        http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?
        product=chlor®ion=gulfmexico¬humbs=0

        Eg:

        http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/regions/gulfmexico/chlor/fy1d/2005/thumb
        /050821.233.1310.fydthumb.jpg

        And look what's coming:

        http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?
        YEAR=2005&MO=AUG&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=10L.NONAME&PROD=ir&PHOT=yes&AGE=
        Latest&ARCHIVE=active&TYPE=geo&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&CURRENT=20050823.0715.
        goes12.x.ir1km_bw.10LNONAME.20kts-1012mb-217N-
        745W.jpg&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc05/ATL/10L.NONAME/ir/geo/1k
        m_bw&STYLE=tables&CURRENT_ATCF=al102005.05081506.gif&ATCF_NAME=al10200
        5&SUB_PRODUCT=1km_bw

        I can further add from my EMF bio standpoint that the reason the
        storm is so elongated from SW to NE is due IMHO to the QBO's impact
        on the ionosphere. Over ten years ago, Dr. Gray used the QBO as a
        hurricane surpression factor, but now there is so much CO2 in the
        oceans that outgassing from a surface low is able to overcome the
        strong negative QBO's impact on point EMF organization events
        (tropical storms).

        The QBO is an ion wind in the tropics that reverses about every two
        years, and is reflective via induction of the overal state of the
        global electrical circuit. This particular state of the QBO is why I
        called for a Michelle like storm this fall back on March 31, also
        give the state of drought in Cuba. As it turned out, Dennis took care
        of Cuba from the drought standpoint, but I still think that the QBO
        is going to give us a fall storm that moves from the Western
        Carribean to the NE. We shall see.


        http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/qbo.data


        The baratropical models, meanwhile, are now starting to see things on
        their event horizons.


        http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?
        time=2005082300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation



        UKmet has now jumped on board and shows a storm bombing in the
        eastern gulf

        THe new GFS just out takes it to FL then NC

        http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?
        time=2005082306&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation


        Two days ago we had a 60 k strike event and then yesterday it was a
        50k event even with a falling SOI. Those huge kinds of displacement
        currents move to the dry air in the tropics and do NOTHING to cloud
        microphysics--because the air is so dry. But the displacement current
        go to that air because it is dry. I know, paradox. Again, it has to
        do with Coulomb's law and the 'k' values involved. Or the dielectric
        constant if you are looking at it as a capacitive coupling.

        In any event, as you cannot see over the event horizon of
        baratropical behaviors, you can see under the event horizon of MJO,
        which is a movement of water around the earth. That water movement
        will bring more strikes w/ thunderstorms in Africa, which powers
        storms from yet another part of the ITCZ, and then brings the water
        from which the couplings can organize.

        SSTs do impact the whole deal because they not only provide latent
        energy for convection but the warmer they are, the more conductive,
        by about one percent of an increase in conductivity per one degF
        increase in SST.




        Consider, again the 'k' value between air and water.

        F = k*Q1*Q2/d2


        Q1 = the quantity of charge on object 1 (in Coulombs)

        Q2 = the quantity of charge on object 2 (in Coulombs)

        d = the distance of separation between the two objects (in meters).

        The symbol k is a proportionality constant known as the Coulomb's law
        constant.


        k depends on the material that the charged objects are immersed in.

        Air

        k = 9.0 x 109 N • m2 / C2.

        Water

        k = 7.0 x 108 N • m2 / C2. .

        Ice water as in cold cloud tops has an even smaller value than water,
        about 10 percent smaller.

        Dry air will allow strong electrical currents between the ocean and
        ionosphere (all the way up to space) by AC currents to dissapate
        energy better, essentially reduce the voltage potential that the
        ionosphere has, even from days when there are high levels of strike
        activity. If there is no water nearby, there is no cloud microphysics
        modulations. With this in mind, and in mind that the tropics are the
        warmest and therefore most conductive, most apt to couple with the
        ionosphere electrically electrical energies from strikes, let's look
        at two phenomenons, SAL and MJO. SAL is about dusty, dry air from
        Africa whereas MJO is about the movements of water around the globe.
        The MJO is extremely important to this discussion, as I have alluded,
        because of the 'k' value at the same time it is what is changed,
        electrically. No water, no asymmetries from extremely high DC fields
        between ionosphere and ocean.

        There are a number of climatology lessons that should jump out at you
        if you are tracking. For instance, it is now known that the glacial
        was much drier than it is today. Again, less clouds to be modulated
        by the capacitive couplings, more areas where power can be lost from
        convective activity over the terresphere. Then there is the Younger
        Dyras, where water was diverted from the Mississippi from what was to
        become the Great Lakes to the Atlantic--a very cold spell followed.
        That's what a combination of a reduction in nutrients to the GOM
        meant to conductivity increased biologically, and at the same time
        what dilution meant to the Atlantic--an overall drop in conductivity
        in the oceans. Now consider in the short run what happens when a
        hurricane drops a lot of water on a region--it relatively dilutes!
        This is one reason for a calm after the storm.

        Anyway, to the SAL and MJO. The idea, I cannot repeat enough, is to
        see over the event horizons presented by purely baratropical models,
        which due to turbulance from the very forces that are being described
        here, cannot be modeled much past 5 days. So you have these slower,
        more predictable movements of water in the air globally, that have
        huge 'k' value meaning, and then therefore alter the general
        functioning of cloud microphysics in a region. Too much dry air, all
        the powering lighting strikes from Africa, and North and South
        America--all couple harmlessly to the dry air and no microphysics
        changes occur. There is no water to relatively diffuse and no air to
        subsist. No nearby clouds for diffused water vapor to be protected by
        its 'k' value, allowing then for more and more convection. Appreciate
        that this occurs over the tropics as it is the most warm and
        conductive part of the oceans . . . see

        http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_precip/gif/am_ir_monthly_
        1.gif

        for MJO

        and

        http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.jpg

        for the SAL


        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
        wrote:
        > Sunspot region 798 is making things at least a little bit
        interesting
        > by showing some rapid growth, but so far, there hasn't been anything
        > in the way of a significant flare. The background X-ray flux is
        > showing a steady upward trend, however, so there's at least a little
        > bit of activity associated with it. The Earth has emerged from the
        > last coronal hole solar wind stream, and the solar wind speed is
        back
        > down under 400. There is a coronal hole on the central meridian,
        > although it looks to be located too far south to be sending anything
        > out way. Beyond that, there's a small equatorial coronal hole
        coming
        > onto view. We might get a gentle brush from it in a week or so.
        >
        > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
        >
        > NOAA sunspot number : 74
        > SFI : 98
        > A index : 5
        > K index : 2
        >
        > Solar wind speed : 390.4 km/sec
        > Solar wind density : 2.6 protons/cc
        > Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa
        >
        > IMF : 4.5 nT
        > IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT North
        >
        > GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1
        >
        > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        > No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
        >
        > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        > No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
        >
        > Solar Activity Forecast :
        > Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Most activity is
        > expected in Region 798.
        >
        > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        > The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.
        >
        > Recent significant solar flare activity :
        > None
      Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.