Solar Activity Report for 8/20/05
- Sunspot region 798 is making things at least a little bit interesting
by showing some rapid growth, but so far, there hasn't been anything
in the way of a significant flare. The background X-ray flux is
showing a steady upward trend, however, so there's at least a little
bit of activity associated with it. The Earth has emerged from the
last coronal hole solar wind stream, and the solar wind speed is back
down under 400. There is a coronal hole on the central meridian,
although it looks to be located too far south to be sending anything
out way. Beyond that, there's a small equatorial coronal hole coming
onto view. We might get a gentle brush from it in a week or so.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 74
SFI : 98
A index : 5
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 390.4 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.6 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa
IMF : 4.5 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT North
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar Activity Forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Most activity is
expected in Region 798.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
- Not only did we have on 8/20 that reading below 500 km/sec, but there
were other factors in play:
Down in the New Orleans, in the oceans--hot:
SSTs alone are not enough, no?
How is life treating you?
And look what's coming:
I can further add from my EMF bio standpoint that the reason the
storm is so elongated from SW to NE is due IMHO to the QBO's impact
on the ionosphere. Over ten years ago, Dr. Gray used the QBO as a
hurricane surpression factor, but now there is so much CO2 in the
oceans that outgassing from a surface low is able to overcome the
strong negative QBO's impact on point EMF organization events
The QBO is an ion wind in the tropics that reverses about every two
years, and is reflective via induction of the overal state of the
global electrical circuit. This particular state of the QBO is why I
called for a Michelle like storm this fall back on March 31, also
give the state of drought in Cuba. As it turned out, Dennis took care
of Cuba from the drought standpoint, but I still think that the QBO
is going to give us a fall storm that moves from the Western
Carribean to the NE. We shall see.
The baratropical models, meanwhile, are now starting to see things on
their event horizons.
UKmet has now jumped on board and shows a storm bombing in the
THe new GFS just out takes it to FL then NC
Two days ago we had a 60 k strike event and then yesterday it was a
50k event even with a falling SOI. Those huge kinds of displacement
currents move to the dry air in the tropics and do NOTHING to cloud
microphysics--because the air is so dry. But the displacement current
go to that air because it is dry. I know, paradox. Again, it has to
do with Coulomb's law and the 'k' values involved. Or the dielectric
constant if you are looking at it as a capacitive coupling.
In any event, as you cannot see over the event horizon of
baratropical behaviors, you can see under the event horizon of MJO,
which is a movement of water around the earth. That water movement
will bring more strikes w/ thunderstorms in Africa, which powers
storms from yet another part of the ITCZ, and then brings the water
from which the couplings can organize.
SSTs do impact the whole deal because they not only provide latent
energy for convection but the warmer they are, the more conductive,
by about one percent of an increase in conductivity per one degF
increase in SST.
Consider, again the 'k' value between air and water.
F = k*Q1*Q2/d2
Q1 = the quantity of charge on object 1 (in Coulombs)
Q2 = the quantity of charge on object 2 (in Coulombs)
d = the distance of separation between the two objects (in meters).
The symbol k is a proportionality constant known as the Coulomb's law
k depends on the material that the charged objects are immersed in.
k = 9.0 x 109 N m2 / C2.
k = 7.0 x 108 N m2 / C2. .
Ice water as in cold cloud tops has an even smaller value than water,
about 10 percent smaller.
Dry air will allow strong electrical currents between the ocean and
ionosphere (all the way up to space) by AC currents to dissapate
energy better, essentially reduce the voltage potential that the
ionosphere has, even from days when there are high levels of strike
activity. If there is no water nearby, there is no cloud microphysics
modulations. With this in mind, and in mind that the tropics are the
warmest and therefore most conductive, most apt to couple with the
ionosphere electrically electrical energies from strikes, let's look
at two phenomenons, SAL and MJO. SAL is about dusty, dry air from
Africa whereas MJO is about the movements of water around the globe.
The MJO is extremely important to this discussion, as I have alluded,
because of the 'k' value at the same time it is what is changed,
electrically. No water, no asymmetries from extremely high DC fields
between ionosphere and ocean.
There are a number of climatology lessons that should jump out at you
if you are tracking. For instance, it is now known that the glacial
was much drier than it is today. Again, less clouds to be modulated
by the capacitive couplings, more areas where power can be lost from
convective activity over the terresphere. Then there is the Younger
Dyras, where water was diverted from the Mississippi from what was to
become the Great Lakes to the Atlantic--a very cold spell followed.
That's what a combination of a reduction in nutrients to the GOM
meant to conductivity increased biologically, and at the same time
what dilution meant to the Atlantic--an overall drop in conductivity
in the oceans. Now consider in the short run what happens when a
hurricane drops a lot of water on a region--it relatively dilutes!
This is one reason for a calm after the storm.
Anyway, to the SAL and MJO. The idea, I cannot repeat enough, is to
see over the event horizons presented by purely baratropical models,
which due to turbulance from the very forces that are being described
here, cannot be modeled much past 5 days. So you have these slower,
more predictable movements of water in the air globally, that have
huge 'k' value meaning, and then therefore alter the general
functioning of cloud microphysics in a region. Too much dry air, all
the powering lighting strikes from Africa, and North and South
America--all couple harmlessly to the dry air and no microphysics
changes occur. There is no water to relatively diffuse and no air to
subsist. No nearby clouds for diffused water vapor to be protected by
its 'k' value, allowing then for more and more convection. Appreciate
that this occurs over the tropics as it is the most warm and
conductive part of the oceans . . . see
for the SAL
--- In firstname.lastname@example.org, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
> Sunspot region 798 is making things at least a little bitinteresting
> by showing some rapid growth, but so far, there hasn't been anythingback
> in the way of a significant flare. The background X-ray flux is
> showing a steady upward trend, however, so there's at least a little
> bit of activity associated with it. The Earth has emerged from the
> last coronal hole solar wind stream, and the solar wind speed is
> down under 400. There is a coronal hole on the central meridian,coming
> although it looks to be located too far south to be sending anything
> out way. Beyond that, there's a small equatorial coronal hole
> onto view. We might get a gentle brush from it in a week or so.
> The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
> NOAA sunspot number : 74
> SFI : 98
> A index : 5
> K index : 2
> Solar wind speed : 390.4 km/sec
> Solar wind density : 2.6 protons/cc
> Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa
> IMF : 4.5 nT
> IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT North
> GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1
> Conditions for the last 24 hours :
> No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
> Forecast for the next 24 hours :
> No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
> Solar Activity Forecast :
> Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Most activity is
> expected in Region 798.
> Geomagnetic activity forecast :
> The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.
> Recent significant solar flare activity :