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Event Horizons--Donald Sutherland

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  • Mike Doran
    Donal Sutherland over at Storm2K wrote: [donsutherland1@hotmail.com] [quote]Although Australia s Bureau of Meteorology reports that the MJO is currently in an
    Message 1 of 3 , Aug 14, 2005
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      Donal Sutherland over at Storm2K wrote:

      [donsutherland1@...]

      [quote]Although Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reports that the
      MJO is currently in an indeterminate phase, the 240-hour GFS
      ensembles portray a situation that correlates well with Phase 8 of
      the MJO. That would be around 7/31. If so, the MJO is probably around
      Phase 6 at present and moving toward Phase 7. The 72-hour GFS
      ensembles look reasonably similar to a Phase 7 situation.

      What does this mean?

      It means that toward the end of July, opportunities for Cape Verde
      (CV) waves (those that move off the African coast and/or develop
      within 1000 km of the Cape Verde Islands) to threaten North America
      would likely diminish. In-close development, of course, could still
      pose a threat.

      Phase 1 of the MJO would then see widespread troughing over the
      Atlantic begin to decay. Indeed, the 360-hour GFS ensembles paint
      just such a picture.

      Phase 2 would see the trough concentrated near the U.S. East Coast
      but most of the troughing over the Atlantic would have dissipated.

      Phases 3 and 4 would see riding develop over North America and then
      expand out across the Atlantic. As this happens, the proverbial gates
      would swing open to permit the "entry" of CV systems.

      Per MJO timing, that would probably begin to occur around the August
      10-20 period. Before then, one might see unseasonable heat in the
      Eastern U.S. and that could be a clue as to how the pattern is
      evolving.

      For now, in coming days, the proverbial "gates" could close on CV
      systems. If so, such systems would tend to recurve harmlessly away
      from the U.S. and that will likely be the situation toward the end of
      the month given the evolution depicted on the GFS ensembles.[/quote]

      MJO to the meteorology community reminds me of that Nirvana song
      about a man with a gun but he don't know what it means . . .

      http://groups.yahoo.com/group/methanehydrateclub/message/2484

      In light of this discussion and then my discussion about event
      horizons, namely how the barotropical models are limited to 5 days,
      the discussion of MJO is extremely signicant. The rough movements of
      water in the air in the region of the Indian Ocean has profound
      ELECTRICAL signicance due to the fact that the tropics are the most
      warm and therefore conductive regions on earth, and the Indian Ocean
      is tropical and warm. This ocean also has the direect current
      connectino to the most struck place on earth--Africa, and largest
      region of conductive ocean--the Pacific. Remember, water is a
      powerful dielectric constant compared to air, so the regional
      movements of clouds,of water, while slower then mere pressure
      changes, will have significant electrical implications to a region.
      So as the MJO changes, so does global climate.

      Recall the example of my burner in my kitchen. Not a one of you can
      feel the heat of the burner, but every one of you can read my words--
      because my words are transmitted ELECTRICALLY. Electrical patterns
      communicate globally, whereas pressure and thermal gradiants from MJO
      have NO CHANCE TO COMMUNICATE OR FORCE GLOBAL CLIMATE.
    • space1weather
      ... around ... America ... still ... then ... gates ... August ... of ... [/quote] ... days, ... of ... most ... Ocean ... region. ... can ... words-- ... MJO
      Message 2 of 3 , Aug 16, 2005
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        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
        <narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
        > Donal Sutherland over at Storm2K wrote:
        >
        > [donsutherland1@h...]
        >
        > [quote]Although Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reports that the
        > MJO is currently in an indeterminate phase, the 240-hour GFS
        > ensembles portray a situation that correlates well with Phase 8 of
        > the MJO. That would be around 7/31. If so, the MJO is probably
        around
        > Phase 6 at present and moving toward Phase 7. The 72-hour GFS
        > ensembles look reasonably similar to a Phase 7 situation.
        >
        > What does this mean?
        >
        > It means that toward the end of July, opportunities for Cape Verde
        > (CV) waves (those that move off the African coast and/or develop
        > within 1000 km of the Cape Verde Islands) to threaten North
        America
        > would likely diminish. In-close development, of course, could
        still
        > pose a threat.
        >
        > Phase 1 of the MJO would then see widespread troughing over the
        > Atlantic begin to decay. Indeed, the 360-hour GFS ensembles paint
        > just such a picture.
        >
        > Phase 2 would see the trough concentrated near the U.S. East Coast
        > but most of the troughing over the Atlantic would have dissipated.
        >
        > Phases 3 and 4 would see riding develop over North America and
        then
        > expand out across the Atlantic. As this happens, the proverbial
        gates
        > would swing open to permit the "entry" of CV systems.
        >
        > Per MJO timing, that would probably begin to occur around the
        August
        > 10-20 period. Before then, one might see unseasonable heat in the
        > Eastern U.S. and that could be a clue as to how the pattern is
        > evolving.
        >
        > For now, in coming days, the proverbial "gates" could close on CV
        > systems. If so, such systems would tend to recurve harmlessly away
        > from the U.S. and that will likely be the situation toward the end
        of
        > the month given the evolution depicted on the GFS ensembles.
        [/quote]
        >
        > MJO to the meteorology community reminds me of that Nirvana song
        > about a man with a gun but he don't know what it means . . .
        >
        > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/methanehydrateclub/message/2484
        >
        > In light of this discussion and then my discussion about event
        > horizons, namely how the barotropical models are limited to 5
        days,
        > the discussion of MJO is extremely signicant. The rough movements
        of
        > water in the air in the region of the Indian Ocean has profound
        > ELECTRICAL signicance due to the fact that the tropics are the
        most
        > warm and therefore conductive regions on earth, and the Indian
        Ocean
        > is tropical and warm. This ocean also has the direect current
        > connectino to the most struck place on earth--Africa, and largest
        > region of conductive ocean--the Pacific. Remember, water is a
        > powerful dielectric constant compared to air, so the regional
        > movements of clouds,of water, while slower then mere pressure
        > changes, will have significant electrical implications to a
        region.
        > So as the MJO changes, so does global climate.
        >
        > Recall the example of my burner in my kitchen. Not a one of you
        can
        > feel the heat of the burner, but every one of you can read my
        words--
        > because my words are transmitted ELECTRICALLY. Electrical patterns
        > communicate globally, whereas pressure and thermal gradiants from
        MJO
        > have NO CHANCE TO COMMUNICATE OR FORCE GLOBAL CLIMATE.


        Mike,

        I could not disagree with your analysis. If I am reading you
        correctly..Electrical changes bring along MJO changes...than climate
        patterns change...

        I know how you feel about the biological feedbacks of the oceans by
        way of gases etc...on storms...ENSO ...many others...

        But where does the space weather effect go ....in the assembly line?
        Does it change the biological feedback system altogether or does it
        enhance the cards that are already dealt?


        Jim
      • Mike Doran
        It depends on its event horizon. I will give you a more considered response later. Tired.
        Message 3 of 3 , Aug 16, 2005
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          It depends on its event horizon. I will give you a more considered
          response later. Tired.


          > But where does the space weather effect go ....in the assembly line?
          > Does it change the biological feedback system altogether or does it
          > enhance the cards that are already dealt?
          >
          >
          > Jim
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