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Re: Solar Activity Report for 8/11/05

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  • Mike Doran
    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
    Message 1 of 16 , Aug 13, 2005
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      http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

      http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
      lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/index.html

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024541.shtml?swath

      Don't know how real time you are but if you can check out these links
      what you will see is that the IR link shows a healthy blob of
      convection BUT NO EYE. If you look below at the NHC link the wind
      swath is pretty good HOWEVER that only describes the bottom of
      coupling between ionosphere and ocean, not what the ionosphere is
      doing. Then look at the Long Paddock link and the SOI fell back
      negative somewhat. Again, I am not looking at space weather, just
      what regional conductivities are doing to the cloud microphyiscs.

      Okay.

      Now, what the difference is between a longer range SOI reading and a
      short range one is that the SOI over a short period of time is mostly
      about roiling and depressurization in that region--out gassing of
      CO2, which impacts momentary conductivies in the region. However, if
      a wind between Darwin and Tahiti is SUSTAINED then you have moving
      salt spray that starts to have an INDUCTION meaning to the impedence
      values. In other words the sustained wind itself starts to have
      electrical meaning and sometimes that overcomes, in terms of global
      electrical circuit patterns, the significance of outgassing. You
      see, the back and forth of the SOI can also be mostly about
      discharging and recharging. Of course, such conductivity meaning can
      occur in ALL the oceans, and such induction meaning can occur in all
      the oceans, and SST changes, such as upwelling events, can also occur
      in all of the oceans. But the Pacific is the largest expanse of ITCZ
      and so electrical changes in the Pacific have significant global
      significance . . .

      This year was unique because while we may have had many features in
      the Pacific electrically similar to an El Nino, the tidal wave's
      impact on the conductivities in the Indian Ocean did not allow it to
      form. So if you have some correlations with solar activity that
      would have been more predesposed to an El Nino--it again points to
      how important it is what the earth DOES with those inputs. I am not
      saying that the solar inputs are not critically important, but rather
      discussing mechanism. Ultimately, this is how you will connect
      weather with climate, and how you reasonably explain to the
      barotropical people how you are seeing over their event horizon.

      So presently with the SOI falling there is less ability for the
      tropical storm Irene to see a capacitive coupling from the ionosphere
      down and the storm becomes less connected to the ITCZ and has a less
      westward tendency as the ITCZ. Thermodynamic principals would have
      it seeking the colder places such as Greenland, and so it is no
      surprise that the models have it moving north.

      But I still think the Carolinas are going to get hit, as there was
      Fabian before they were hit two years ago.

      There is a George Karlin joke about women, asking if five twos equals
      a ten. I predicted 2 major fish storms and now we have three strong
      tropical storms which were fish. We are getting closer to the time
      when the Carolinas have the most to be concerned. However, the
      patterns of strikes in the CONUS seem to a little more north with
      things so I don't know. I shouldn't second guess my earlier forecast
      as it is based on the biological things I see then. We shall
      see . . .









      --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
      <no_reply@y...> wrote:
      > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
      > <narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
      > > Jim,
      > >
      > > We have a rising SOI--and Irene probably headed near you. No
      > doubt
      > > you will get wave rain features from this storm. As in you get
      > the
      > > opposite
      > >
      > > 9-Aug-2005 1014.11 1014.55 -12.50 -1.45 -5.12
      > > 10-Aug-2005 1014.01 1014.00 -9.70 -2.05 -5.25
      > > 11-Aug-2005 1013.99 1013.10 -4.40 -2.57 -5.29
      > > 12-Aug-2005 1014.91 1013.20 0.50 -3.18 -5.13
      > >
      >
      >
      >
      > Mike,
      >
      > I like to look at where the 30 day average is going or maybe even
      > the 4 or 5 day smoothed. I will consider the daily average of a
      > different anomaly (-/+) if it is very high...at least 20-25...The
      30
      > day has been moving negative as you well know.
      >
      > Washington DC OCM Bob Ryan, of NBC, said Reagan National was at 86
      > degrees at 11pm last night ....Very hot already this morning.
      >
      >
      > Jim
    • David
      I think I understand what you re getting at, Jim, and we re actually talking about two different things. What I was talking about is overall solar activity
      Message 2 of 16 , Aug 16, 2005
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        I think I understand what you're getting at, Jim, and we're actually
        talking about two different things. What I was talking about is
        overall solar activity associated with the solar max. If I understand
        you correctly, you're talking about coronal holes in particular.

        However, I'm still confused. You'll have more days of high solar wind
        speed with the solar max than with the bottom of the cycle.
        Therefore, it would seem that the connection between higher solar
        activity and higher terrestrial temps would still work. As far as the
        Earth is concerned, a high solar wind speed is a high solar wind
        speed, no matter if the speedy wind is coming from a coronal hole or
        the most recent really impressive X-class flare. That being the case,
        I don't see how a high speed solar wind from a coronal hole can cause
        cooling, while an active sun causes warming.

        Unless you're saying that the overall increase in solar energy output
        of an active sun is enough to offset the effect of the high-speed wind??
      • space1weather
        In this case I was referring to a specific area of the world that seems to be affected during the presence of certain space weather variables when certain
        Message 3 of 16 , Aug 17, 2005
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          In this case I was referring to a specific area of the world that
          seems to be affected during the presence of certain space weather
          variables when certain atmopsheric oceanic teleconnections are in
          place.

          Steering currents...trough ..ridge etc...Where will the Bermuda high
          be?

          The Baranyi paper talks about the importance of different magnetic
          field vectors etc...and it's relationship with corpuscular radiaton.
          Everywhere is not effected the same. This has always been my thought
          also.

          As far as C-holes and CME's. These are two different ball games
          unless the CME is a tranisient. The Earths environment reacts
          totally different and it should. The wave action within a CME is
          completely different than a C-hole.

          Look at the neutron monitors yesterday. GCR level hardly changed
          even though solar wind speed was near 700 km/sec. This is not going
          to occur with a CME. The > 2 Mev Electron fluence levels stayed
          above 0.0e+07. This also is not usually going to occur.



          Jim


          --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
          wrote:
          > I think I understand what you're getting at, Jim, and we're
          actually
          > talking about two different things. What I was talking about is
          > overall solar activity associated with the solar max. If I
          understand
          > you correctly, you're talking about coronal holes in particular.
          >
          > However, I'm still confused. You'll have more days of high solar
          wind
          > speed with the solar max than with the bottom of the cycle.
          > Therefore, it would seem that the connection between higher solar
          > activity and higher terrestrial temps would still work. As far as
          the
          > Earth is concerned, a high solar wind speed is a high solar wind
          > speed, no matter if the speedy wind is coming from a coronal hole
          or
          > the most recent really impressive X-class flare. That being the
          case,
          > I don't see how a high speed solar wind from a coronal hole can
          cause
          > cooling, while an active sun causes warming.
          >
          > Unless you're saying that the overall increase in solar energy
          output
          > of an active sun is enough to offset the effect of the high-speed
          wind??
        • Mike Doran
          Jim, I didn t mean to avoid your question. It s just that it is a very difficult one: Here is a blog which one of the top posts features a bet regarding the
          Message 4 of 16 , Aug 18, 2005
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            Jim,

            I didn't mean to avoid your question. It's just that it is a very
            difficult one:


            Here is a blog which one of the top posts features a bet regarding
            the sun causing temperatures to fall:

            http://timlambert.org/2005/07/climate-audiot/#comments

            These fake skeptics continue to ignore what ELECTRICAL and BIOLOGICAL
            orders are brought to the climate system. Note that in this
            discussion there is not ONE WORD about electrical or biological order
            to the climate system. NOTHING.

            Anyway, to this idea of an event horizon. Obviously, when a study
            shows that tropical storm intensity and frequency has increased, that
            is a sign of low entropy. Really low entropy. Or put another way a
            lot of order. That order tends to go to disorder. Warm goes to
            cold. Clouds in a circle or line fuzz out to no pressure differences
            in no patterns. That is the way of the closed system, which, of
            course, is not closed. The problem is that the orders imposed on
            cloud microphysics differ from that brught about by heat and
            pressures alone. And those orders, as you point out, are complex
            from the input end. I am here to say they are also complex from the
            dampening side as well--what the biosphere as a whole does with what
            comes in.

            The confusions are there across all the horizons.

            So there are event horizons like the sun coming up from night to day--
            but then there is the electrical part---how the sun can heat and
            cause thunderstorms on one side of the earth in the afternoon and
            those thunderstorms can connect electrical conditions to the dark
            side of the earth.

            There is the sun going through the solar cycle, and what changes in
            lumenosity may have different electrical conditions that cause the
            way fronts and air currents move, just as you suggest, in different
            manners. That is because the microphysics changes mean different
            viscosity values, different ways that order moves toward disorder.

            When I have looked at my long range hurricane forecast, I have been
            looking for the solar cycle and hurricane history for climatology to
            see if I can spot what occurs globally with different solar inputs.

            When I look at what you and David are doing, I have a more complex
            set of ideas. There isn't much time for modulation to occur, either,
            other than the basic stuff, like where are the hydrate fields and
            microbial blooms and so forth. Plus the barotropic trends, where the
            SOI, NAO, PDO, ENSO is, and so forth. Then I have been looking at
            strikes, of course.

            In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather <no_reply@y...>
            wrote:
            > In this case I was referring to a specific area of the world that
            > seems to be affected during the presence of certain space weather
            > variables when certain atmopsheric oceanic teleconnections are in
            > place.
            >
            > Steering currents...trough ..ridge etc...Where will the Bermuda
            high
            > be?
            >
            > The Baranyi paper talks about the importance of different magnetic
            > field vectors etc...and it's relationship with corpuscular
            radiaton.
            > Everywhere is not effected the same. This has always been my
            thought
            > also.
            >
            > As far as C-holes and CME's. These are two different ball games
            > unless the CME is a tranisient. The Earths environment reacts
            > totally different and it should. The wave action within a CME is
            > completely different than a C-hole.
            >
            > Look at the neutron monitors yesterday. GCR level hardly changed
            > even though solar wind speed was near 700 km/sec. This is not going
            > to occur with a CME. The > 2 Mev Electron fluence levels stayed
            > above 0.0e+07. This also is not usually going to occur.
            >
            >
            >
            > Jim
            >
            >
            > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David"
            <b1blancer1@e...>
            > wrote:
            > > I think I understand what you're getting at, Jim, and we're
            > actually
            > > talking about two different things. What I was talking about is
            > > overall solar activity associated with the solar max. If I
            > understand
            > > you correctly, you're talking about coronal holes in particular.
            > >
            > > However, I'm still confused. You'll have more days of high solar
            > wind
            > > speed with the solar max than with the bottom of the cycle.
            > > Therefore, it would seem that the connection between higher solar
            > > activity and higher terrestrial temps would still work. As far
            as
            > the
            > > Earth is concerned, a high solar wind speed is a high solar wind
            > > speed, no matter if the speedy wind is coming from a coronal hole
            > or
            > > the most recent really impressive X-class flare. That being the
            > case,
            > > I don't see how a high speed solar wind from a coronal hole can
            > cause
            > > cooling, while an active sun causes warming.
            > >
            > > Unless you're saying that the overall increase in solar energy
            > output
            > > of an active sun is enough to offset the effect of the high-speed
            > wind??
          • David
            ... If this is true, it just made things a whole lot more complicated. On a global scale, we know that an absence of sunspots, even for a relatively short
            Message 5 of 16 , Aug 20, 2005
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              --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
              <no_reply@y...> wrote:
              > In this case I was referring to a specific area of the world that
              > seems to be affected during the presence of certain space weather
              > variables when certain atmopsheric oceanic teleconnections are in
              > place.
              >
              > Steering currents...trough ..ridge etc...Where will the Bermuda high
              > be?

              If this is true, it just made things a whole lot more complicated. On
              a global scale, we know that an absence of sunspots, even for a
              relatively short time, can cause a striking effect. From what I've
              seen, though, I don't believe coronal hole frequency changes with the
              sunspot cycles.

              >
              > The Baranyi paper talks about the importance of different magnetic
              > field vectors etc...and it's relationship with corpuscular radiaton.
              > Everywhere is not effected the same. This has always been my thought
              > also.
              >

              I hadn't really thought about it in that way before, but I could see
              the possibility.

              Okay, so if we have a case of different parts of the world being
              affected in different ways by a high-speed solar wind, would the same
              hold true for CME impacts and solar radiation storms?
            • space1weather
              ... complicated. On ... the ... I asked that coronal hole question to a well regarded SEC solar expert years ago. She said she did not have the answer. Well
              Message 6 of 16 , Aug 20, 2005
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                , "David" <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
                > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
                >
                > If this is true, it just made things a whole lot more
                complicated. On
                > a global scale, we know that an absence of sunspots, even for a
                > relatively short time, can cause a striking effect. From what I've
                > seen, though, I don't believe coronal hole frequency changes with
                the
                > sunspot cycles.

                I asked that coronal hole question to a well regarded SEC solar
                expert years ago. She said she did not have the answer. Well if the
                aurora was not seen for decades in the northern latitudes during the
                Maunder minimum then the coronal holes had to have been absent
                during the lulls.

                Now I know you can have very low geomagnetic activity...like the
                latest ...with some fairly strong 700 km/sec winds but something odd
                would have to happen with the IMF-earth's magnetic field for us to
                have no high latitude storming everyone once in a while.

                People may not have known what the northern lights actually wereback
                then but they were written about all the time. I have a book with
                historical sightings that goes back several centuries...with
                specific dates.. for the big ones

                Now if you believe like I have for quite some time and some recent
                papers are saying that the changes in the pole's polarities are
                related to the cyclical nature of their presence...espeically
                around maximum..when the poles reverse polarities (10/99-5/2000 C-
                hole one example) than this would make sense.

                I would imagine that the poles must get extremely weak...magnetic
                wise... or one pole completely dominates over the other and you
                almost just have one polarity.



                > I hadn't really thought about it in that way before, but I could
                see
                > the possibility.
                >
                > Okay, so if we have a case of different parts of the world being
                > affected in different ways by a high-speed solar wind, would the
                same
                > hold true for CME impacts and solar radiation storms?


                Absolutely and I have seen relationships with them. I believe the
                truth about these relationships have alluded us for so long because
                what seemed like an obvious relationship...ones investigated...
                didn't hold much water ... and what most likely is a relationship...
                never entered most peoples mind.

                The meteorological and climatological community have been in charge
                of most of this research...somewhat...and they just could not
                comprehend or admit as to how some areas could be effected and not
                others. I have had this exact discussions with many individuals
                within the field over the years.

                That was their biggest obstacle with them believing in my forecasts.
                Even after they occurred. They said that it could not effect us and
                not....maybe Colorado etc...

                Jim
              • David
                ... Even a blank sun can have a coronal hole make an appearance, as we ve seen, so I ll assume they were around during the Maunder Minimum. Then again, there
                Message 7 of 16 , Aug 21, 2005
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                  > I asked that coronal hole question to a well regarded SEC solar
                  > expert years ago. She said she did not have the answer. Well if the
                  > aurora was not seen for decades in the northern latitudes during the
                  > Maunder minimum then the coronal holes had to have been absent
                  > during the lulls.

                  Even a blank sun can have a coronal hole make an appearance, as we've
                  seen, so I'll assume they were around during the Maunder Minimum.
                  Then again, there was obviously something odd happening to suppress
                  the sunspots to such a degree for a long (from our perspective) period
                  of time, so who knows?

                  >
                  > Now I know you can have very low geomagnetic activity...like the
                  > latest ...with some fairly strong 700 km/sec winds but something odd
                  > would have to happen with the IMF-earth's magnetic field for us to
                  > have no high latitude storming everyone once in a while.

                  Agreed.

                  >
                  > People may not have known what the northern lights actually wereback
                  > then but they were written about all the time. I have a book with
                  > historical sightings that goes back several centuries...with
                  > specific dates.. for the big ones
                  >
                  > Now if you believe like I have for quite some time and some recent
                  > papers are saying that the changes in the pole's polarities are
                  > related to the cyclical nature of their presence...espeically
                  > around maximum..when the poles reverse polarities (10/99-5/2000 C-
                  > hole one example) than this would make sense.
                  >
                  > I would imagine that the poles must get extremely weak...magnetic
                  > wise... or one pole completely dominates over the other and you
                  > almost just have one polarity.
                  >

                  I dunno, maybe. Or, the solar magnetic field could become really
                  convoluted with north and south poles popping up in all sorts of odd
                  places until it settles down into the new polarity.
                • space1weather
                  ... we ve ... period ... Well I would tend to think you are right at first but if you think about it for a second we are only going by what has occured the
                  Message 8 of 16 , Aug 25, 2005
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                    --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
                    wrote:

                    >
                    > Even a blank sun can have a coronal hole make an appearance, as
                    we've
                    > seen, so I'll assume they were around during the Maunder Minimum.
                    > Then again, there was obviously something odd happening to suppress
                    > the sunspots to such a degree for a long (from our perspective)
                    period
                    > of time, so who knows?



                    Well I would tend to think you are right at first but if you think
                    about it for a second we are only going by what has occured the past
                    few decades.

                    The poles are strongest towards minimum and they can wax and wane
                    almost throughout the whole cycle except for the short stint right
                    after solar minimum and during the rise towards maximum.

                    If the sun is extremely quiet than the poles have to be also....or
                    at least out of character from what they have been behaving like for
                    the past few decades.

                    Almost everything... flares, c-holes, sunspots , geomagnetic
                    storming...etc... follow the polar changes.

                    Could they pop up everywhere like you mentioned? I don't know...
                    maybe....but in a way they do already...with sunspot regions and
                    coronal holes. I could not disregard any theory with what little we
                    know about it. I seem to recall a similar theory regarding the
                    earth's magnetic flip..although different.



                    Jim
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