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Re: Solar Activity Report for 8/11/05

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  • Mike Doran
    Jim, We have a rising SOI--and Irene probably headed near you. No doubt you will get wave rain features from this storm. As in you get the opposite
    Message 1 of 16 , Aug 11, 2005
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      Jim,

      We have a rising SOI--and Irene probably headed near you. No doubt
      you will get wave rain features from this storm. As in you get the
      opposite

      9-Aug-2005 1014.11 1014.55 -12.50 -1.45 -5.12
      10-Aug-2005 1014.01 1014.00 -9.70 -2.05 -5.25
      11-Aug-2005 1013.99 1013.10 -4.40 -2.57 -5.29
      12-Aug-2005 1014.91 1013.20 0.50 -3.18 -5.13

      Think of it this way. When the oceans are roiled they lose their
      carbination--like a flat beer. That means tha surface lows can't
      deprressurize and roil the ocean and cause carbination to come out of
      solution and rise to the top and then increase the potential ion
      load --and thereby drop the conductivity for a surface coupling with
      the ionosphere. So if there be an organization brought about due to
      a LACK of solar activity, then it will be organized on the E. Pacific
      side and the tropical jet will behave accordingly.

      This time of year this kind of SOI reading means an increased
      probability of formation of a tropical storm. I predicted a storm to
      the Carolinas on March 31 right here and I think I should keep to my
      forecast. However, there are a number of signs that it may run a
      little further north. Either way Carolinas get substantial
      rainfall. Irene is going to be interesting to watch.

      --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
      <no_reply@y...> wrote:
      > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David"
      <b1blancer1@e...>
      > wrote:
      > > The visible surface of the sun is about to be blank and devoid of
      > > sunspots again. After a rousing start as it crossed the eastern
      > limb,
      > > sunspot region 792 has rotated out of view, and regions 794 and
      795
      > > are about to do the same. Barring any new sunspots coming into
      view,
      > > we could see the sunspot number go to zero again.
      >
      > Well a quieter-blank sun means we get hot here in the Washington DC
      > area. Today was pretty warm. The forecast calls for mid 90's the
      next
      > few days. I mentioned this to Mike a while back. ENSO related. The
      > wave has turned negative...when it's positive the opposite seems to
      > occur.
      >
      > So we can forecast solar activity by looking at our weather
      > forecast...Or at least give us more confidence in forecasting a
      quiet
      > sun.
      >
      > Let's see what happens.
      >
      >
      > Jim
    • David
      ... I ll have a Guiness, if it s OK with you. :-) ... If Irene follows the currently projected track, she ll miss us. The Outer Banks may get a light brush
      Message 2 of 16 , Aug 12, 2005
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        > Think of it this way. When the oceans are roiled they lose their
        > carbination--like a flat beer.

        I'll have a Guiness, if it's OK with you. :-)

        > This time of year this kind of SOI reading means an increased
        > probability of formation of a tropical storm. I predicted a storm to
        > the Carolinas on March 31 right here and I think I should keep to my
        > forecast. However, there are a number of signs that it may run a
        > little further north. Either way Carolinas get substantial
        > rainfall. Irene is going to be interesting to watch.
        >

        If Irene follows the currently projected track, she'll miss us. The
        Outer Banks may get a light brush of wind, but nothing bad. Looks
        like we dodged the bullet...this time.
      • David
        ... I certainly won t argue the point that the sun affects the climate, but I d be a bit sceptical of the fact that it happens on a one-day-to-the next basis.
        Message 3 of 16 , Aug 12, 2005
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          > Well a quieter-blank sun means we get hot here in the Washington DC
          > area. Today was pretty warm. The forecast calls for mid 90's the next
          > few days. I mentioned this to Mike a while back. ENSO related. The
          > wave has turned negative...when it's positive the opposite seems to
          > occur.
          >
          > So we can forecast solar activity by looking at our weather
          > forecast...Or at least give us more confidence in forecasting a quiet
          > sun.
          >
          > Let's see what happens.

          I certainly won't argue the point that the sun affects the climate,
          but I'd be a bit sceptical of the fact that it happens on a
          one-day-to-the next basis.

          Anyway, I'm of the opinion that an active sun means warmer temps, and
          vice-versa. Taking your hypothesis out through a much longer time
          period, shouldn't we see a really significant warm-up through periods
          of prolonged solar inactivity? It's the opposite, however, that seems
          to be true. Turn the sunspots down for a few thousand years, and you
          get an ice age.
        • space1weather
          ... DC ... next ... The ... to ... quiet ... and ... periods ... seems ... you
          Message 4 of 16 , Aug 13, 2005
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            --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
            wrote:
            >
            > > Well a quieter-blank sun means we get hot here in the Washington
            DC
            > > area. Today was pretty warm. The forecast calls for mid 90's the
            next
            > > few days. I mentioned this to Mike a while back. ENSO related.
            The
            > > wave has turned negative...when it's positive the opposite seems
            to
            > > occur.
            > >
            > > So we can forecast solar activity by looking at our weather
            > > forecast...Or at least give us more confidence in forecasting a
            quiet
            > > sun.
            > >
            > > Let's see what happens.
            >
            > I certainly won't argue the point that the sun affects the climate,
            > but I'd be a bit sceptical of the fact that it happens on a
            > one-day-to-the next basis.
            >
            > Anyway, I'm of the opinion that an active sun means warmer temps,
            and
            > vice-versa. Taking your hypothesis out through a much longer time
            > period, shouldn't we see a really significant warm-up through
            periods
            > of prolonged solar inactivity? It's the opposite, however, that
            seems
            > to be true. Turn the sunspots down for a few thousand years, and
            you
            > get an ice age.
          • space1weather
            ... seems ... I am not referring to all areas here .... I believe earth responds- already knows what s going on ...I know the rule of thumb about higher
            Message 5 of 16 , Aug 13, 2005
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              > I certainly won't argue the point that the sun affects the climate,
              > but I'd be a bit sceptical of the fact that it happens on a
              > one-day-to-the next basis.
              >
              > Anyway, I'm of the opinion that an active sun means warmer temps, and
              > vice-versa. Taking your hypothesis out through a much longer time
              > period, shouldn't we see a really significant warm-up through periods
              > of prolonged solar inactivity? It's the opposite, however, that
              seems
              > to be true. Turn the sunspots down for a few thousand years, and you
              > get an ice age.


              I am not referring to all areas here .... I believe earth responds-
              already knows what's going on ...I know the rule of thumb about higher
              activity...warmer temps but this is different.

              I am referring to the relationship with steering currents. I believe
              there are many out there but it depends upon the other variables
              involved.

              One example of many ....a large trans equatorial Positive recurrent
              coronal hole (Seven times)from October 1999-April 2000. Played with
              the steering currents. Started writing about it during occurrance.

              Seven data groups...Eight days ...So this is 56 days out of the 90 day
              winter...Seperated groups ...Three day cold period...Five day warm
              period....Warm period starts when proton denisity level reached 10
              p/cc while windstream/sector is arriving. So the three cold days occur
              before the five warm days.

              So cold days were actually occurring when the c-hole was making it's
              central meridian crossing....Baliunas and Soon found a correlation
              with cooler troposphere temperatures and C-holes...I sent it to her
              and she wrote back asking if she could send it to Willie. I told her I
              already had.

              I forget what the Dec-Feb winter anomaly average at Reagan National
              was but it was considerably above average. I think the mean
              temperature difference between the 21 day and 35 day groups was almost
              11.50 degrees.

              The average high temperature anomaly for the warm period days
              (35) ..post 10 p/cc... was around 6 degrees above average. (The nights
              were warmer...clouds etc.. higher lows...raised the mean average
              higher)

              When you seperated the 56 days from the rest of the winter it ended
              up being almost normal (within about one degree I think)

              Major northeaster...in February ...which I believe was solar eruption
              related.... skewed the warm days by pulling down very cold air or it
              would have been even way higher.

              I think in two or three consectutive C-hole appearances the anomaly
              between the two different groups was around 15 degrees.


              Jim
            • space1weather
              ... doubt ... the ... Mike, I like to look at where the 30 day average is going or maybe even the 4 or 5 day smoothed. I will consider the daily average of a
              Message 6 of 16 , Aug 13, 2005
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                --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
                <narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
                > Jim,
                >
                > We have a rising SOI--and Irene probably headed near you. No
                doubt
                > you will get wave rain features from this storm. As in you get
                the
                > opposite
                >
                > 9-Aug-2005 1014.11 1014.55 -12.50 -1.45 -5.12
                > 10-Aug-2005 1014.01 1014.00 -9.70 -2.05 -5.25
                > 11-Aug-2005 1013.99 1013.10 -4.40 -2.57 -5.29
                > 12-Aug-2005 1014.91 1013.20 0.50 -3.18 -5.13
                >



                Mike,

                I like to look at where the 30 day average is going or maybe even
                the 4 or 5 day smoothed. I will consider the daily average of a
                different anomaly (-/+) if it is very high...at least 20-25...The 30
                day has been moving negative as you well know.

                Washington DC OCM Bob Ryan, of NBC, said Reagan National was at 86
                degrees at 11pm last night ....Very hot already this morning.


                Jim
              • Mike Doran
                http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
                Message 7 of 16 , Aug 13, 2005
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                  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

                  http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
                  lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/index.html

                  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024541.shtml?swath

                  Don't know how real time you are but if you can check out these links
                  what you will see is that the IR link shows a healthy blob of
                  convection BUT NO EYE. If you look below at the NHC link the wind
                  swath is pretty good HOWEVER that only describes the bottom of
                  coupling between ionosphere and ocean, not what the ionosphere is
                  doing. Then look at the Long Paddock link and the SOI fell back
                  negative somewhat. Again, I am not looking at space weather, just
                  what regional conductivities are doing to the cloud microphyiscs.

                  Okay.

                  Now, what the difference is between a longer range SOI reading and a
                  short range one is that the SOI over a short period of time is mostly
                  about roiling and depressurization in that region--out gassing of
                  CO2, which impacts momentary conductivies in the region. However, if
                  a wind between Darwin and Tahiti is SUSTAINED then you have moving
                  salt spray that starts to have an INDUCTION meaning to the impedence
                  values. In other words the sustained wind itself starts to have
                  electrical meaning and sometimes that overcomes, in terms of global
                  electrical circuit patterns, the significance of outgassing. You
                  see, the back and forth of the SOI can also be mostly about
                  discharging and recharging. Of course, such conductivity meaning can
                  occur in ALL the oceans, and such induction meaning can occur in all
                  the oceans, and SST changes, such as upwelling events, can also occur
                  in all of the oceans. But the Pacific is the largest expanse of ITCZ
                  and so electrical changes in the Pacific have significant global
                  significance . . .

                  This year was unique because while we may have had many features in
                  the Pacific electrically similar to an El Nino, the tidal wave's
                  impact on the conductivities in the Indian Ocean did not allow it to
                  form. So if you have some correlations with solar activity that
                  would have been more predesposed to an El Nino--it again points to
                  how important it is what the earth DOES with those inputs. I am not
                  saying that the solar inputs are not critically important, but rather
                  discussing mechanism. Ultimately, this is how you will connect
                  weather with climate, and how you reasonably explain to the
                  barotropical people how you are seeing over their event horizon.

                  So presently with the SOI falling there is less ability for the
                  tropical storm Irene to see a capacitive coupling from the ionosphere
                  down and the storm becomes less connected to the ITCZ and has a less
                  westward tendency as the ITCZ. Thermodynamic principals would have
                  it seeking the colder places such as Greenland, and so it is no
                  surprise that the models have it moving north.

                  But I still think the Carolinas are going to get hit, as there was
                  Fabian before they were hit two years ago.

                  There is a George Karlin joke about women, asking if five twos equals
                  a ten. I predicted 2 major fish storms and now we have three strong
                  tropical storms which were fish. We are getting closer to the time
                  when the Carolinas have the most to be concerned. However, the
                  patterns of strikes in the CONUS seem to a little more north with
                  things so I don't know. I shouldn't second guess my earlier forecast
                  as it is based on the biological things I see then. We shall
                  see . . .









                  --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
                  <no_reply@y...> wrote:
                  > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
                  > <narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
                  > > Jim,
                  > >
                  > > We have a rising SOI--and Irene probably headed near you. No
                  > doubt
                  > > you will get wave rain features from this storm. As in you get
                  > the
                  > > opposite
                  > >
                  > > 9-Aug-2005 1014.11 1014.55 -12.50 -1.45 -5.12
                  > > 10-Aug-2005 1014.01 1014.00 -9.70 -2.05 -5.25
                  > > 11-Aug-2005 1013.99 1013.10 -4.40 -2.57 -5.29
                  > > 12-Aug-2005 1014.91 1013.20 0.50 -3.18 -5.13
                  > >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  > Mike,
                  >
                  > I like to look at where the 30 day average is going or maybe even
                  > the 4 or 5 day smoothed. I will consider the daily average of a
                  > different anomaly (-/+) if it is very high...at least 20-25...The
                  30
                  > day has been moving negative as you well know.
                  >
                  > Washington DC OCM Bob Ryan, of NBC, said Reagan National was at 86
                  > degrees at 11pm last night ....Very hot already this morning.
                  >
                  >
                  > Jim
                • David
                  I think I understand what you re getting at, Jim, and we re actually talking about two different things. What I was talking about is overall solar activity
                  Message 8 of 16 , Aug 16, 2005
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                    I think I understand what you're getting at, Jim, and we're actually
                    talking about two different things. What I was talking about is
                    overall solar activity associated with the solar max. If I understand
                    you correctly, you're talking about coronal holes in particular.

                    However, I'm still confused. You'll have more days of high solar wind
                    speed with the solar max than with the bottom of the cycle.
                    Therefore, it would seem that the connection between higher solar
                    activity and higher terrestrial temps would still work. As far as the
                    Earth is concerned, a high solar wind speed is a high solar wind
                    speed, no matter if the speedy wind is coming from a coronal hole or
                    the most recent really impressive X-class flare. That being the case,
                    I don't see how a high speed solar wind from a coronal hole can cause
                    cooling, while an active sun causes warming.

                    Unless you're saying that the overall increase in solar energy output
                    of an active sun is enough to offset the effect of the high-speed wind??
                  • space1weather
                    In this case I was referring to a specific area of the world that seems to be affected during the presence of certain space weather variables when certain
                    Message 9 of 16 , Aug 17, 2005
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                      In this case I was referring to a specific area of the world that
                      seems to be affected during the presence of certain space weather
                      variables when certain atmopsheric oceanic teleconnections are in
                      place.

                      Steering currents...trough ..ridge etc...Where will the Bermuda high
                      be?

                      The Baranyi paper talks about the importance of different magnetic
                      field vectors etc...and it's relationship with corpuscular radiaton.
                      Everywhere is not effected the same. This has always been my thought
                      also.

                      As far as C-holes and CME's. These are two different ball games
                      unless the CME is a tranisient. The Earths environment reacts
                      totally different and it should. The wave action within a CME is
                      completely different than a C-hole.

                      Look at the neutron monitors yesterday. GCR level hardly changed
                      even though solar wind speed was near 700 km/sec. This is not going
                      to occur with a CME. The > 2 Mev Electron fluence levels stayed
                      above 0.0e+07. This also is not usually going to occur.



                      Jim


                      --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
                      wrote:
                      > I think I understand what you're getting at, Jim, and we're
                      actually
                      > talking about two different things. What I was talking about is
                      > overall solar activity associated with the solar max. If I
                      understand
                      > you correctly, you're talking about coronal holes in particular.
                      >
                      > However, I'm still confused. You'll have more days of high solar
                      wind
                      > speed with the solar max than with the bottom of the cycle.
                      > Therefore, it would seem that the connection between higher solar
                      > activity and higher terrestrial temps would still work. As far as
                      the
                      > Earth is concerned, a high solar wind speed is a high solar wind
                      > speed, no matter if the speedy wind is coming from a coronal hole
                      or
                      > the most recent really impressive X-class flare. That being the
                      case,
                      > I don't see how a high speed solar wind from a coronal hole can
                      cause
                      > cooling, while an active sun causes warming.
                      >
                      > Unless you're saying that the overall increase in solar energy
                      output
                      > of an active sun is enough to offset the effect of the high-speed
                      wind??
                    • Mike Doran
                      Jim, I didn t mean to avoid your question. It s just that it is a very difficult one: Here is a blog which one of the top posts features a bet regarding the
                      Message 10 of 16 , Aug 18, 2005
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                        Jim,

                        I didn't mean to avoid your question. It's just that it is a very
                        difficult one:


                        Here is a blog which one of the top posts features a bet regarding
                        the sun causing temperatures to fall:

                        http://timlambert.org/2005/07/climate-audiot/#comments

                        These fake skeptics continue to ignore what ELECTRICAL and BIOLOGICAL
                        orders are brought to the climate system. Note that in this
                        discussion there is not ONE WORD about electrical or biological order
                        to the climate system. NOTHING.

                        Anyway, to this idea of an event horizon. Obviously, when a study
                        shows that tropical storm intensity and frequency has increased, that
                        is a sign of low entropy. Really low entropy. Or put another way a
                        lot of order. That order tends to go to disorder. Warm goes to
                        cold. Clouds in a circle or line fuzz out to no pressure differences
                        in no patterns. That is the way of the closed system, which, of
                        course, is not closed. The problem is that the orders imposed on
                        cloud microphysics differ from that brught about by heat and
                        pressures alone. And those orders, as you point out, are complex
                        from the input end. I am here to say they are also complex from the
                        dampening side as well--what the biosphere as a whole does with what
                        comes in.

                        The confusions are there across all the horizons.

                        So there are event horizons like the sun coming up from night to day--
                        but then there is the electrical part---how the sun can heat and
                        cause thunderstorms on one side of the earth in the afternoon and
                        those thunderstorms can connect electrical conditions to the dark
                        side of the earth.

                        There is the sun going through the solar cycle, and what changes in
                        lumenosity may have different electrical conditions that cause the
                        way fronts and air currents move, just as you suggest, in different
                        manners. That is because the microphysics changes mean different
                        viscosity values, different ways that order moves toward disorder.

                        When I have looked at my long range hurricane forecast, I have been
                        looking for the solar cycle and hurricane history for climatology to
                        see if I can spot what occurs globally with different solar inputs.

                        When I look at what you and David are doing, I have a more complex
                        set of ideas. There isn't much time for modulation to occur, either,
                        other than the basic stuff, like where are the hydrate fields and
                        microbial blooms and so forth. Plus the barotropic trends, where the
                        SOI, NAO, PDO, ENSO is, and so forth. Then I have been looking at
                        strikes, of course.

                        In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather <no_reply@y...>
                        wrote:
                        > In this case I was referring to a specific area of the world that
                        > seems to be affected during the presence of certain space weather
                        > variables when certain atmopsheric oceanic teleconnections are in
                        > place.
                        >
                        > Steering currents...trough ..ridge etc...Where will the Bermuda
                        high
                        > be?
                        >
                        > The Baranyi paper talks about the importance of different magnetic
                        > field vectors etc...and it's relationship with corpuscular
                        radiaton.
                        > Everywhere is not effected the same. This has always been my
                        thought
                        > also.
                        >
                        > As far as C-holes and CME's. These are two different ball games
                        > unless the CME is a tranisient. The Earths environment reacts
                        > totally different and it should. The wave action within a CME is
                        > completely different than a C-hole.
                        >
                        > Look at the neutron monitors yesterday. GCR level hardly changed
                        > even though solar wind speed was near 700 km/sec. This is not going
                        > to occur with a CME. The > 2 Mev Electron fluence levels stayed
                        > above 0.0e+07. This also is not usually going to occur.
                        >
                        >
                        >
                        > Jim
                        >
                        >
                        > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David"
                        <b1blancer1@e...>
                        > wrote:
                        > > I think I understand what you're getting at, Jim, and we're
                        > actually
                        > > talking about two different things. What I was talking about is
                        > > overall solar activity associated with the solar max. If I
                        > understand
                        > > you correctly, you're talking about coronal holes in particular.
                        > >
                        > > However, I'm still confused. You'll have more days of high solar
                        > wind
                        > > speed with the solar max than with the bottom of the cycle.
                        > > Therefore, it would seem that the connection between higher solar
                        > > activity and higher terrestrial temps would still work. As far
                        as
                        > the
                        > > Earth is concerned, a high solar wind speed is a high solar wind
                        > > speed, no matter if the speedy wind is coming from a coronal hole
                        > or
                        > > the most recent really impressive X-class flare. That being the
                        > case,
                        > > I don't see how a high speed solar wind from a coronal hole can
                        > cause
                        > > cooling, while an active sun causes warming.
                        > >
                        > > Unless you're saying that the overall increase in solar energy
                        > output
                        > > of an active sun is enough to offset the effect of the high-speed
                        > wind??
                      • David
                        ... If this is true, it just made things a whole lot more complicated. On a global scale, we know that an absence of sunspots, even for a relatively short
                        Message 11 of 16 , Aug 20, 2005
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                          --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
                          <no_reply@y...> wrote:
                          > In this case I was referring to a specific area of the world that
                          > seems to be affected during the presence of certain space weather
                          > variables when certain atmopsheric oceanic teleconnections are in
                          > place.
                          >
                          > Steering currents...trough ..ridge etc...Where will the Bermuda high
                          > be?

                          If this is true, it just made things a whole lot more complicated. On
                          a global scale, we know that an absence of sunspots, even for a
                          relatively short time, can cause a striking effect. From what I've
                          seen, though, I don't believe coronal hole frequency changes with the
                          sunspot cycles.

                          >
                          > The Baranyi paper talks about the importance of different magnetic
                          > field vectors etc...and it's relationship with corpuscular radiaton.
                          > Everywhere is not effected the same. This has always been my thought
                          > also.
                          >

                          I hadn't really thought about it in that way before, but I could see
                          the possibility.

                          Okay, so if we have a case of different parts of the world being
                          affected in different ways by a high-speed solar wind, would the same
                          hold true for CME impacts and solar radiation storms?
                        • space1weather
                          ... complicated. On ... the ... I asked that coronal hole question to a well regarded SEC solar expert years ago. She said she did not have the answer. Well
                          Message 12 of 16 , Aug 20, 2005
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                            , "David" <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
                            > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
                            >
                            > If this is true, it just made things a whole lot more
                            complicated. On
                            > a global scale, we know that an absence of sunspots, even for a
                            > relatively short time, can cause a striking effect. From what I've
                            > seen, though, I don't believe coronal hole frequency changes with
                            the
                            > sunspot cycles.

                            I asked that coronal hole question to a well regarded SEC solar
                            expert years ago. She said she did not have the answer. Well if the
                            aurora was not seen for decades in the northern latitudes during the
                            Maunder minimum then the coronal holes had to have been absent
                            during the lulls.

                            Now I know you can have very low geomagnetic activity...like the
                            latest ...with some fairly strong 700 km/sec winds but something odd
                            would have to happen with the IMF-earth's magnetic field for us to
                            have no high latitude storming everyone once in a while.

                            People may not have known what the northern lights actually wereback
                            then but they were written about all the time. I have a book with
                            historical sightings that goes back several centuries...with
                            specific dates.. for the big ones

                            Now if you believe like I have for quite some time and some recent
                            papers are saying that the changes in the pole's polarities are
                            related to the cyclical nature of their presence...espeically
                            around maximum..when the poles reverse polarities (10/99-5/2000 C-
                            hole one example) than this would make sense.

                            I would imagine that the poles must get extremely weak...magnetic
                            wise... or one pole completely dominates over the other and you
                            almost just have one polarity.



                            > I hadn't really thought about it in that way before, but I could
                            see
                            > the possibility.
                            >
                            > Okay, so if we have a case of different parts of the world being
                            > affected in different ways by a high-speed solar wind, would the
                            same
                            > hold true for CME impacts and solar radiation storms?


                            Absolutely and I have seen relationships with them. I believe the
                            truth about these relationships have alluded us for so long because
                            what seemed like an obvious relationship...ones investigated...
                            didn't hold much water ... and what most likely is a relationship...
                            never entered most peoples mind.

                            The meteorological and climatological community have been in charge
                            of most of this research...somewhat...and they just could not
                            comprehend or admit as to how some areas could be effected and not
                            others. I have had this exact discussions with many individuals
                            within the field over the years.

                            That was their biggest obstacle with them believing in my forecasts.
                            Even after they occurred. They said that it could not effect us and
                            not....maybe Colorado etc...

                            Jim
                          • David
                            ... Even a blank sun can have a coronal hole make an appearance, as we ve seen, so I ll assume they were around during the Maunder Minimum. Then again, there
                            Message 13 of 16 , Aug 21, 2005
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                              > I asked that coronal hole question to a well regarded SEC solar
                              > expert years ago. She said she did not have the answer. Well if the
                              > aurora was not seen for decades in the northern latitudes during the
                              > Maunder minimum then the coronal holes had to have been absent
                              > during the lulls.

                              Even a blank sun can have a coronal hole make an appearance, as we've
                              seen, so I'll assume they were around during the Maunder Minimum.
                              Then again, there was obviously something odd happening to suppress
                              the sunspots to such a degree for a long (from our perspective) period
                              of time, so who knows?

                              >
                              > Now I know you can have very low geomagnetic activity...like the
                              > latest ...with some fairly strong 700 km/sec winds but something odd
                              > would have to happen with the IMF-earth's magnetic field for us to
                              > have no high latitude storming everyone once in a while.

                              Agreed.

                              >
                              > People may not have known what the northern lights actually wereback
                              > then but they were written about all the time. I have a book with
                              > historical sightings that goes back several centuries...with
                              > specific dates.. for the big ones
                              >
                              > Now if you believe like I have for quite some time and some recent
                              > papers are saying that the changes in the pole's polarities are
                              > related to the cyclical nature of their presence...espeically
                              > around maximum..when the poles reverse polarities (10/99-5/2000 C-
                              > hole one example) than this would make sense.
                              >
                              > I would imagine that the poles must get extremely weak...magnetic
                              > wise... or one pole completely dominates over the other and you
                              > almost just have one polarity.
                              >

                              I dunno, maybe. Or, the solar magnetic field could become really
                              convoluted with north and south poles popping up in all sorts of odd
                              places until it settles down into the new polarity.
                            • space1weather
                              ... we ve ... period ... Well I would tend to think you are right at first but if you think about it for a second we are only going by what has occured the
                              Message 14 of 16 , Aug 25, 2005
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                                --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
                                wrote:

                                >
                                > Even a blank sun can have a coronal hole make an appearance, as
                                we've
                                > seen, so I'll assume they were around during the Maunder Minimum.
                                > Then again, there was obviously something odd happening to suppress
                                > the sunspots to such a degree for a long (from our perspective)
                                period
                                > of time, so who knows?



                                Well I would tend to think you are right at first but if you think
                                about it for a second we are only going by what has occured the past
                                few decades.

                                The poles are strongest towards minimum and they can wax and wane
                                almost throughout the whole cycle except for the short stint right
                                after solar minimum and during the rise towards maximum.

                                If the sun is extremely quiet than the poles have to be also....or
                                at least out of character from what they have been behaving like for
                                the past few decades.

                                Almost everything... flares, c-holes, sunspots , geomagnetic
                                storming...etc... follow the polar changes.

                                Could they pop up everywhere like you mentioned? I don't know...
                                maybe....but in a way they do already...with sunspot regions and
                                coronal holes. I could not disregard any theory with what little we
                                know about it. I seem to recall a similar theory regarding the
                                earth's magnetic flip..although different.



                                Jim
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