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Re: Solar Activity Report for 8/11/05

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  • space1weather
    ... limb, ... Well a quieter-blank sun means we get hot here in the Washington DC area. Today was pretty warm. The forecast calls for mid 90 s the next few
    Message 1 of 16 , Aug 11, 2005
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      --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
      wrote:
      > The visible surface of the sun is about to be blank and devoid of
      > sunspots again. After a rousing start as it crossed the eastern
      limb,
      > sunspot region 792 has rotated out of view, and regions 794 and 795
      > are about to do the same. Barring any new sunspots coming into view,
      > we could see the sunspot number go to zero again.

      Well a quieter-blank sun means we get hot here in the Washington DC
      area. Today was pretty warm. The forecast calls for mid 90's the next
      few days. I mentioned this to Mike a while back. ENSO related. The
      wave has turned negative...when it's positive the opposite seems to
      occur.

      So we can forecast solar activity by looking at our weather
      forecast...Or at least give us more confidence in forecasting a quiet
      sun.

      Let's see what happens.


      Jim
    • Mike Doran
      Jim, We have a rising SOI--and Irene probably headed near you. No doubt you will get wave rain features from this storm. As in you get the opposite
      Message 2 of 16 , Aug 11, 2005
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        Jim,

        We have a rising SOI--and Irene probably headed near you. No doubt
        you will get wave rain features from this storm. As in you get the
        opposite

        9-Aug-2005 1014.11 1014.55 -12.50 -1.45 -5.12
        10-Aug-2005 1014.01 1014.00 -9.70 -2.05 -5.25
        11-Aug-2005 1013.99 1013.10 -4.40 -2.57 -5.29
        12-Aug-2005 1014.91 1013.20 0.50 -3.18 -5.13

        Think of it this way. When the oceans are roiled they lose their
        carbination--like a flat beer. That means tha surface lows can't
        deprressurize and roil the ocean and cause carbination to come out of
        solution and rise to the top and then increase the potential ion
        load --and thereby drop the conductivity for a surface coupling with
        the ionosphere. So if there be an organization brought about due to
        a LACK of solar activity, then it will be organized on the E. Pacific
        side and the tropical jet will behave accordingly.

        This time of year this kind of SOI reading means an increased
        probability of formation of a tropical storm. I predicted a storm to
        the Carolinas on March 31 right here and I think I should keep to my
        forecast. However, there are a number of signs that it may run a
        little further north. Either way Carolinas get substantial
        rainfall. Irene is going to be interesting to watch.

        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
        <no_reply@y...> wrote:
        > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David"
        <b1blancer1@e...>
        > wrote:
        > > The visible surface of the sun is about to be blank and devoid of
        > > sunspots again. After a rousing start as it crossed the eastern
        > limb,
        > > sunspot region 792 has rotated out of view, and regions 794 and
        795
        > > are about to do the same. Barring any new sunspots coming into
        view,
        > > we could see the sunspot number go to zero again.
        >
        > Well a quieter-blank sun means we get hot here in the Washington DC
        > area. Today was pretty warm. The forecast calls for mid 90's the
        next
        > few days. I mentioned this to Mike a while back. ENSO related. The
        > wave has turned negative...when it's positive the opposite seems to
        > occur.
        >
        > So we can forecast solar activity by looking at our weather
        > forecast...Or at least give us more confidence in forecasting a
        quiet
        > sun.
        >
        > Let's see what happens.
        >
        >
        > Jim
      • David
        ... I ll have a Guiness, if it s OK with you. :-) ... If Irene follows the currently projected track, she ll miss us. The Outer Banks may get a light brush
        Message 3 of 16 , Aug 12, 2005
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          > Think of it this way. When the oceans are roiled they lose their
          > carbination--like a flat beer.

          I'll have a Guiness, if it's OK with you. :-)

          > This time of year this kind of SOI reading means an increased
          > probability of formation of a tropical storm. I predicted a storm to
          > the Carolinas on March 31 right here and I think I should keep to my
          > forecast. However, there are a number of signs that it may run a
          > little further north. Either way Carolinas get substantial
          > rainfall. Irene is going to be interesting to watch.
          >

          If Irene follows the currently projected track, she'll miss us. The
          Outer Banks may get a light brush of wind, but nothing bad. Looks
          like we dodged the bullet...this time.
        • David
          ... I certainly won t argue the point that the sun affects the climate, but I d be a bit sceptical of the fact that it happens on a one-day-to-the next basis.
          Message 4 of 16 , Aug 12, 2005
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            > Well a quieter-blank sun means we get hot here in the Washington DC
            > area. Today was pretty warm. The forecast calls for mid 90's the next
            > few days. I mentioned this to Mike a while back. ENSO related. The
            > wave has turned negative...when it's positive the opposite seems to
            > occur.
            >
            > So we can forecast solar activity by looking at our weather
            > forecast...Or at least give us more confidence in forecasting a quiet
            > sun.
            >
            > Let's see what happens.

            I certainly won't argue the point that the sun affects the climate,
            but I'd be a bit sceptical of the fact that it happens on a
            one-day-to-the next basis.

            Anyway, I'm of the opinion that an active sun means warmer temps, and
            vice-versa. Taking your hypothesis out through a much longer time
            period, shouldn't we see a really significant warm-up through periods
            of prolonged solar inactivity? It's the opposite, however, that seems
            to be true. Turn the sunspots down for a few thousand years, and you
            get an ice age.
          • space1weather
            ... DC ... next ... The ... to ... quiet ... and ... periods ... seems ... you
            Message 5 of 16 , Aug 13, 2005
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              --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
              wrote:
              >
              > > Well a quieter-blank sun means we get hot here in the Washington
              DC
              > > area. Today was pretty warm. The forecast calls for mid 90's the
              next
              > > few days. I mentioned this to Mike a while back. ENSO related.
              The
              > > wave has turned negative...when it's positive the opposite seems
              to
              > > occur.
              > >
              > > So we can forecast solar activity by looking at our weather
              > > forecast...Or at least give us more confidence in forecasting a
              quiet
              > > sun.
              > >
              > > Let's see what happens.
              >
              > I certainly won't argue the point that the sun affects the climate,
              > but I'd be a bit sceptical of the fact that it happens on a
              > one-day-to-the next basis.
              >
              > Anyway, I'm of the opinion that an active sun means warmer temps,
              and
              > vice-versa. Taking your hypothesis out through a much longer time
              > period, shouldn't we see a really significant warm-up through
              periods
              > of prolonged solar inactivity? It's the opposite, however, that
              seems
              > to be true. Turn the sunspots down for a few thousand years, and
              you
              > get an ice age.
            • space1weather
              ... seems ... I am not referring to all areas here .... I believe earth responds- already knows what s going on ...I know the rule of thumb about higher
              Message 6 of 16 , Aug 13, 2005
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                > I certainly won't argue the point that the sun affects the climate,
                > but I'd be a bit sceptical of the fact that it happens on a
                > one-day-to-the next basis.
                >
                > Anyway, I'm of the opinion that an active sun means warmer temps, and
                > vice-versa. Taking your hypothesis out through a much longer time
                > period, shouldn't we see a really significant warm-up through periods
                > of prolonged solar inactivity? It's the opposite, however, that
                seems
                > to be true. Turn the sunspots down for a few thousand years, and you
                > get an ice age.


                I am not referring to all areas here .... I believe earth responds-
                already knows what's going on ...I know the rule of thumb about higher
                activity...warmer temps but this is different.

                I am referring to the relationship with steering currents. I believe
                there are many out there but it depends upon the other variables
                involved.

                One example of many ....a large trans equatorial Positive recurrent
                coronal hole (Seven times)from October 1999-April 2000. Played with
                the steering currents. Started writing about it during occurrance.

                Seven data groups...Eight days ...So this is 56 days out of the 90 day
                winter...Seperated groups ...Three day cold period...Five day warm
                period....Warm period starts when proton denisity level reached 10
                p/cc while windstream/sector is arriving. So the three cold days occur
                before the five warm days.

                So cold days were actually occurring when the c-hole was making it's
                central meridian crossing....Baliunas and Soon found a correlation
                with cooler troposphere temperatures and C-holes...I sent it to her
                and she wrote back asking if she could send it to Willie. I told her I
                already had.

                I forget what the Dec-Feb winter anomaly average at Reagan National
                was but it was considerably above average. I think the mean
                temperature difference between the 21 day and 35 day groups was almost
                11.50 degrees.

                The average high temperature anomaly for the warm period days
                (35) ..post 10 p/cc... was around 6 degrees above average. (The nights
                were warmer...clouds etc.. higher lows...raised the mean average
                higher)

                When you seperated the 56 days from the rest of the winter it ended
                up being almost normal (within about one degree I think)

                Major northeaster...in February ...which I believe was solar eruption
                related.... skewed the warm days by pulling down very cold air or it
                would have been even way higher.

                I think in two or three consectutive C-hole appearances the anomaly
                between the two different groups was around 15 degrees.


                Jim
              • space1weather
                ... doubt ... the ... Mike, I like to look at where the 30 day average is going or maybe even the 4 or 5 day smoothed. I will consider the daily average of a
                Message 7 of 16 , Aug 13, 2005
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                  --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
                  <narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
                  > Jim,
                  >
                  > We have a rising SOI--and Irene probably headed near you. No
                  doubt
                  > you will get wave rain features from this storm. As in you get
                  the
                  > opposite
                  >
                  > 9-Aug-2005 1014.11 1014.55 -12.50 -1.45 -5.12
                  > 10-Aug-2005 1014.01 1014.00 -9.70 -2.05 -5.25
                  > 11-Aug-2005 1013.99 1013.10 -4.40 -2.57 -5.29
                  > 12-Aug-2005 1014.91 1013.20 0.50 -3.18 -5.13
                  >



                  Mike,

                  I like to look at where the 30 day average is going or maybe even
                  the 4 or 5 day smoothed. I will consider the daily average of a
                  different anomaly (-/+) if it is very high...at least 20-25...The 30
                  day has been moving negative as you well know.

                  Washington DC OCM Bob Ryan, of NBC, said Reagan National was at 86
                  degrees at 11pm last night ....Very hot already this morning.


                  Jim
                • Mike Doran
                  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
                  Message 8 of 16 , Aug 13, 2005
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                    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

                    http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
                    lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/index.html

                    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024541.shtml?swath

                    Don't know how real time you are but if you can check out these links
                    what you will see is that the IR link shows a healthy blob of
                    convection BUT NO EYE. If you look below at the NHC link the wind
                    swath is pretty good HOWEVER that only describes the bottom of
                    coupling between ionosphere and ocean, not what the ionosphere is
                    doing. Then look at the Long Paddock link and the SOI fell back
                    negative somewhat. Again, I am not looking at space weather, just
                    what regional conductivities are doing to the cloud microphyiscs.

                    Okay.

                    Now, what the difference is between a longer range SOI reading and a
                    short range one is that the SOI over a short period of time is mostly
                    about roiling and depressurization in that region--out gassing of
                    CO2, which impacts momentary conductivies in the region. However, if
                    a wind between Darwin and Tahiti is SUSTAINED then you have moving
                    salt spray that starts to have an INDUCTION meaning to the impedence
                    values. In other words the sustained wind itself starts to have
                    electrical meaning and sometimes that overcomes, in terms of global
                    electrical circuit patterns, the significance of outgassing. You
                    see, the back and forth of the SOI can also be mostly about
                    discharging and recharging. Of course, such conductivity meaning can
                    occur in ALL the oceans, and such induction meaning can occur in all
                    the oceans, and SST changes, such as upwelling events, can also occur
                    in all of the oceans. But the Pacific is the largest expanse of ITCZ
                    and so electrical changes in the Pacific have significant global
                    significance . . .

                    This year was unique because while we may have had many features in
                    the Pacific electrically similar to an El Nino, the tidal wave's
                    impact on the conductivities in the Indian Ocean did not allow it to
                    form. So if you have some correlations with solar activity that
                    would have been more predesposed to an El Nino--it again points to
                    how important it is what the earth DOES with those inputs. I am not
                    saying that the solar inputs are not critically important, but rather
                    discussing mechanism. Ultimately, this is how you will connect
                    weather with climate, and how you reasonably explain to the
                    barotropical people how you are seeing over their event horizon.

                    So presently with the SOI falling there is less ability for the
                    tropical storm Irene to see a capacitive coupling from the ionosphere
                    down and the storm becomes less connected to the ITCZ and has a less
                    westward tendency as the ITCZ. Thermodynamic principals would have
                    it seeking the colder places such as Greenland, and so it is no
                    surprise that the models have it moving north.

                    But I still think the Carolinas are going to get hit, as there was
                    Fabian before they were hit two years ago.

                    There is a George Karlin joke about women, asking if five twos equals
                    a ten. I predicted 2 major fish storms and now we have three strong
                    tropical storms which were fish. We are getting closer to the time
                    when the Carolinas have the most to be concerned. However, the
                    patterns of strikes in the CONUS seem to a little more north with
                    things so I don't know. I shouldn't second guess my earlier forecast
                    as it is based on the biological things I see then. We shall
                    see . . .









                    --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
                    <no_reply@y...> wrote:
                    > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
                    > <narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
                    > > Jim,
                    > >
                    > > We have a rising SOI--and Irene probably headed near you. No
                    > doubt
                    > > you will get wave rain features from this storm. As in you get
                    > the
                    > > opposite
                    > >
                    > > 9-Aug-2005 1014.11 1014.55 -12.50 -1.45 -5.12
                    > > 10-Aug-2005 1014.01 1014.00 -9.70 -2.05 -5.25
                    > > 11-Aug-2005 1013.99 1013.10 -4.40 -2.57 -5.29
                    > > 12-Aug-2005 1014.91 1013.20 0.50 -3.18 -5.13
                    > >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    > Mike,
                    >
                    > I like to look at where the 30 day average is going or maybe even
                    > the 4 or 5 day smoothed. I will consider the daily average of a
                    > different anomaly (-/+) if it is very high...at least 20-25...The
                    30
                    > day has been moving negative as you well know.
                    >
                    > Washington DC OCM Bob Ryan, of NBC, said Reagan National was at 86
                    > degrees at 11pm last night ....Very hot already this morning.
                    >
                    >
                    > Jim
                  • David
                    I think I understand what you re getting at, Jim, and we re actually talking about two different things. What I was talking about is overall solar activity
                    Message 9 of 16 , Aug 16, 2005
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                      I think I understand what you're getting at, Jim, and we're actually
                      talking about two different things. What I was talking about is
                      overall solar activity associated with the solar max. If I understand
                      you correctly, you're talking about coronal holes in particular.

                      However, I'm still confused. You'll have more days of high solar wind
                      speed with the solar max than with the bottom of the cycle.
                      Therefore, it would seem that the connection between higher solar
                      activity and higher terrestrial temps would still work. As far as the
                      Earth is concerned, a high solar wind speed is a high solar wind
                      speed, no matter if the speedy wind is coming from a coronal hole or
                      the most recent really impressive X-class flare. That being the case,
                      I don't see how a high speed solar wind from a coronal hole can cause
                      cooling, while an active sun causes warming.

                      Unless you're saying that the overall increase in solar energy output
                      of an active sun is enough to offset the effect of the high-speed wind??
                    • space1weather
                      In this case I was referring to a specific area of the world that seems to be affected during the presence of certain space weather variables when certain
                      Message 10 of 16 , Aug 17, 2005
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                        In this case I was referring to a specific area of the world that
                        seems to be affected during the presence of certain space weather
                        variables when certain atmopsheric oceanic teleconnections are in
                        place.

                        Steering currents...trough ..ridge etc...Where will the Bermuda high
                        be?

                        The Baranyi paper talks about the importance of different magnetic
                        field vectors etc...and it's relationship with corpuscular radiaton.
                        Everywhere is not effected the same. This has always been my thought
                        also.

                        As far as C-holes and CME's. These are two different ball games
                        unless the CME is a tranisient. The Earths environment reacts
                        totally different and it should. The wave action within a CME is
                        completely different than a C-hole.

                        Look at the neutron monitors yesterday. GCR level hardly changed
                        even though solar wind speed was near 700 km/sec. This is not going
                        to occur with a CME. The > 2 Mev Electron fluence levels stayed
                        above 0.0e+07. This also is not usually going to occur.



                        Jim


                        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
                        wrote:
                        > I think I understand what you're getting at, Jim, and we're
                        actually
                        > talking about two different things. What I was talking about is
                        > overall solar activity associated with the solar max. If I
                        understand
                        > you correctly, you're talking about coronal holes in particular.
                        >
                        > However, I'm still confused. You'll have more days of high solar
                        wind
                        > speed with the solar max than with the bottom of the cycle.
                        > Therefore, it would seem that the connection between higher solar
                        > activity and higher terrestrial temps would still work. As far as
                        the
                        > Earth is concerned, a high solar wind speed is a high solar wind
                        > speed, no matter if the speedy wind is coming from a coronal hole
                        or
                        > the most recent really impressive X-class flare. That being the
                        case,
                        > I don't see how a high speed solar wind from a coronal hole can
                        cause
                        > cooling, while an active sun causes warming.
                        >
                        > Unless you're saying that the overall increase in solar energy
                        output
                        > of an active sun is enough to offset the effect of the high-speed
                        wind??
                      • Mike Doran
                        Jim, I didn t mean to avoid your question. It s just that it is a very difficult one: Here is a blog which one of the top posts features a bet regarding the
                        Message 11 of 16 , Aug 18, 2005
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                          Jim,

                          I didn't mean to avoid your question. It's just that it is a very
                          difficult one:


                          Here is a blog which one of the top posts features a bet regarding
                          the sun causing temperatures to fall:

                          http://timlambert.org/2005/07/climate-audiot/#comments

                          These fake skeptics continue to ignore what ELECTRICAL and BIOLOGICAL
                          orders are brought to the climate system. Note that in this
                          discussion there is not ONE WORD about electrical or biological order
                          to the climate system. NOTHING.

                          Anyway, to this idea of an event horizon. Obviously, when a study
                          shows that tropical storm intensity and frequency has increased, that
                          is a sign of low entropy. Really low entropy. Or put another way a
                          lot of order. That order tends to go to disorder. Warm goes to
                          cold. Clouds in a circle or line fuzz out to no pressure differences
                          in no patterns. That is the way of the closed system, which, of
                          course, is not closed. The problem is that the orders imposed on
                          cloud microphysics differ from that brught about by heat and
                          pressures alone. And those orders, as you point out, are complex
                          from the input end. I am here to say they are also complex from the
                          dampening side as well--what the biosphere as a whole does with what
                          comes in.

                          The confusions are there across all the horizons.

                          So there are event horizons like the sun coming up from night to day--
                          but then there is the electrical part---how the sun can heat and
                          cause thunderstorms on one side of the earth in the afternoon and
                          those thunderstorms can connect electrical conditions to the dark
                          side of the earth.

                          There is the sun going through the solar cycle, and what changes in
                          lumenosity may have different electrical conditions that cause the
                          way fronts and air currents move, just as you suggest, in different
                          manners. That is because the microphysics changes mean different
                          viscosity values, different ways that order moves toward disorder.

                          When I have looked at my long range hurricane forecast, I have been
                          looking for the solar cycle and hurricane history for climatology to
                          see if I can spot what occurs globally with different solar inputs.

                          When I look at what you and David are doing, I have a more complex
                          set of ideas. There isn't much time for modulation to occur, either,
                          other than the basic stuff, like where are the hydrate fields and
                          microbial blooms and so forth. Plus the barotropic trends, where the
                          SOI, NAO, PDO, ENSO is, and so forth. Then I have been looking at
                          strikes, of course.

                          In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather <no_reply@y...>
                          wrote:
                          > In this case I was referring to a specific area of the world that
                          > seems to be affected during the presence of certain space weather
                          > variables when certain atmopsheric oceanic teleconnections are in
                          > place.
                          >
                          > Steering currents...trough ..ridge etc...Where will the Bermuda
                          high
                          > be?
                          >
                          > The Baranyi paper talks about the importance of different magnetic
                          > field vectors etc...and it's relationship with corpuscular
                          radiaton.
                          > Everywhere is not effected the same. This has always been my
                          thought
                          > also.
                          >
                          > As far as C-holes and CME's. These are two different ball games
                          > unless the CME is a tranisient. The Earths environment reacts
                          > totally different and it should. The wave action within a CME is
                          > completely different than a C-hole.
                          >
                          > Look at the neutron monitors yesterday. GCR level hardly changed
                          > even though solar wind speed was near 700 km/sec. This is not going
                          > to occur with a CME. The > 2 Mev Electron fluence levels stayed
                          > above 0.0e+07. This also is not usually going to occur.
                          >
                          >
                          >
                          > Jim
                          >
                          >
                          > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David"
                          <b1blancer1@e...>
                          > wrote:
                          > > I think I understand what you're getting at, Jim, and we're
                          > actually
                          > > talking about two different things. What I was talking about is
                          > > overall solar activity associated with the solar max. If I
                          > understand
                          > > you correctly, you're talking about coronal holes in particular.
                          > >
                          > > However, I'm still confused. You'll have more days of high solar
                          > wind
                          > > speed with the solar max than with the bottom of the cycle.
                          > > Therefore, it would seem that the connection between higher solar
                          > > activity and higher terrestrial temps would still work. As far
                          as
                          > the
                          > > Earth is concerned, a high solar wind speed is a high solar wind
                          > > speed, no matter if the speedy wind is coming from a coronal hole
                          > or
                          > > the most recent really impressive X-class flare. That being the
                          > case,
                          > > I don't see how a high speed solar wind from a coronal hole can
                          > cause
                          > > cooling, while an active sun causes warming.
                          > >
                          > > Unless you're saying that the overall increase in solar energy
                          > output
                          > > of an active sun is enough to offset the effect of the high-speed
                          > wind??
                        • David
                          ... If this is true, it just made things a whole lot more complicated. On a global scale, we know that an absence of sunspots, even for a relatively short
                          Message 12 of 16 , Aug 20, 2005
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                            --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
                            <no_reply@y...> wrote:
                            > In this case I was referring to a specific area of the world that
                            > seems to be affected during the presence of certain space weather
                            > variables when certain atmopsheric oceanic teleconnections are in
                            > place.
                            >
                            > Steering currents...trough ..ridge etc...Where will the Bermuda high
                            > be?

                            If this is true, it just made things a whole lot more complicated. On
                            a global scale, we know that an absence of sunspots, even for a
                            relatively short time, can cause a striking effect. From what I've
                            seen, though, I don't believe coronal hole frequency changes with the
                            sunspot cycles.

                            >
                            > The Baranyi paper talks about the importance of different magnetic
                            > field vectors etc...and it's relationship with corpuscular radiaton.
                            > Everywhere is not effected the same. This has always been my thought
                            > also.
                            >

                            I hadn't really thought about it in that way before, but I could see
                            the possibility.

                            Okay, so if we have a case of different parts of the world being
                            affected in different ways by a high-speed solar wind, would the same
                            hold true for CME impacts and solar radiation storms?
                          • space1weather
                            ... complicated. On ... the ... I asked that coronal hole question to a well regarded SEC solar expert years ago. She said she did not have the answer. Well
                            Message 13 of 16 , Aug 20, 2005
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                              , "David" <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
                              > --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, space1weather
                              >
                              > If this is true, it just made things a whole lot more
                              complicated. On
                              > a global scale, we know that an absence of sunspots, even for a
                              > relatively short time, can cause a striking effect. From what I've
                              > seen, though, I don't believe coronal hole frequency changes with
                              the
                              > sunspot cycles.

                              I asked that coronal hole question to a well regarded SEC solar
                              expert years ago. She said she did not have the answer. Well if the
                              aurora was not seen for decades in the northern latitudes during the
                              Maunder minimum then the coronal holes had to have been absent
                              during the lulls.

                              Now I know you can have very low geomagnetic activity...like the
                              latest ...with some fairly strong 700 km/sec winds but something odd
                              would have to happen with the IMF-earth's magnetic field for us to
                              have no high latitude storming everyone once in a while.

                              People may not have known what the northern lights actually wereback
                              then but they were written about all the time. I have a book with
                              historical sightings that goes back several centuries...with
                              specific dates.. for the big ones

                              Now if you believe like I have for quite some time and some recent
                              papers are saying that the changes in the pole's polarities are
                              related to the cyclical nature of their presence...espeically
                              around maximum..when the poles reverse polarities (10/99-5/2000 C-
                              hole one example) than this would make sense.

                              I would imagine that the poles must get extremely weak...magnetic
                              wise... or one pole completely dominates over the other and you
                              almost just have one polarity.



                              > I hadn't really thought about it in that way before, but I could
                              see
                              > the possibility.
                              >
                              > Okay, so if we have a case of different parts of the world being
                              > affected in different ways by a high-speed solar wind, would the
                              same
                              > hold true for CME impacts and solar radiation storms?


                              Absolutely and I have seen relationships with them. I believe the
                              truth about these relationships have alluded us for so long because
                              what seemed like an obvious relationship...ones investigated...
                              didn't hold much water ... and what most likely is a relationship...
                              never entered most peoples mind.

                              The meteorological and climatological community have been in charge
                              of most of this research...somewhat...and they just could not
                              comprehend or admit as to how some areas could be effected and not
                              others. I have had this exact discussions with many individuals
                              within the field over the years.

                              That was their biggest obstacle with them believing in my forecasts.
                              Even after they occurred. They said that it could not effect us and
                              not....maybe Colorado etc...

                              Jim
                            • David
                              ... Even a blank sun can have a coronal hole make an appearance, as we ve seen, so I ll assume they were around during the Maunder Minimum. Then again, there
                              Message 14 of 16 , Aug 21, 2005
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                                > I asked that coronal hole question to a well regarded SEC solar
                                > expert years ago. She said she did not have the answer. Well if the
                                > aurora was not seen for decades in the northern latitudes during the
                                > Maunder minimum then the coronal holes had to have been absent
                                > during the lulls.

                                Even a blank sun can have a coronal hole make an appearance, as we've
                                seen, so I'll assume they were around during the Maunder Minimum.
                                Then again, there was obviously something odd happening to suppress
                                the sunspots to such a degree for a long (from our perspective) period
                                of time, so who knows?

                                >
                                > Now I know you can have very low geomagnetic activity...like the
                                > latest ...with some fairly strong 700 km/sec winds but something odd
                                > would have to happen with the IMF-earth's magnetic field for us to
                                > have no high latitude storming everyone once in a while.

                                Agreed.

                                >
                                > People may not have known what the northern lights actually wereback
                                > then but they were written about all the time. I have a book with
                                > historical sightings that goes back several centuries...with
                                > specific dates.. for the big ones
                                >
                                > Now if you believe like I have for quite some time and some recent
                                > papers are saying that the changes in the pole's polarities are
                                > related to the cyclical nature of their presence...espeically
                                > around maximum..when the poles reverse polarities (10/99-5/2000 C-
                                > hole one example) than this would make sense.
                                >
                                > I would imagine that the poles must get extremely weak...magnetic
                                > wise... or one pole completely dominates over the other and you
                                > almost just have one polarity.
                                >

                                I dunno, maybe. Or, the solar magnetic field could become really
                                convoluted with north and south poles popping up in all sorts of odd
                                places until it settles down into the new polarity.
                              • space1weather
                                ... we ve ... period ... Well I would tend to think you are right at first but if you think about it for a second we are only going by what has occured the
                                Message 15 of 16 , Aug 25, 2005
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                                  --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
                                  wrote:

                                  >
                                  > Even a blank sun can have a coronal hole make an appearance, as
                                  we've
                                  > seen, so I'll assume they were around during the Maunder Minimum.
                                  > Then again, there was obviously something odd happening to suppress
                                  > the sunspots to such a degree for a long (from our perspective)
                                  period
                                  > of time, so who knows?



                                  Well I would tend to think you are right at first but if you think
                                  about it for a second we are only going by what has occured the past
                                  few decades.

                                  The poles are strongest towards minimum and they can wax and wane
                                  almost throughout the whole cycle except for the short stint right
                                  after solar minimum and during the rise towards maximum.

                                  If the sun is extremely quiet than the poles have to be also....or
                                  at least out of character from what they have been behaving like for
                                  the past few decades.

                                  Almost everything... flares, c-holes, sunspots , geomagnetic
                                  storming...etc... follow the polar changes.

                                  Could they pop up everywhere like you mentioned? I don't know...
                                  maybe....but in a way they do already...with sunspot regions and
                                  coronal holes. I could not disregard any theory with what little we
                                  know about it. I seem to recall a similar theory regarding the
                                  earth's magnetic flip..although different.



                                  Jim
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