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Event Horizon

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  • Mike Doran
    Rasmus Benestad wrote: We do not need to invoke these aspects of electric fields and so on to explain cyclones. They can readily be simulated in computer
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 10, 2005
      Rasmus Benestad wrote:

      "We do not need to invoke these aspects of electric fields and so on
      to explain cyclones. They can readily be simulated in computer models
      describing the dynamics and thermodynamics. Cyclones are also
      routinely simulated in weather models that do not take the electric
      field into account."

      The NHC has over FORTY models they use to project tropical storm
      dynamics and it is difficult to respond to whether or not these
      models serendipitously are taking into account the capacitive
      couplings that impact cloud microphysics that I am describing for you
      here. Keep in mind that the cloud disk around a tropical storm has
      a high dielectric constant compared to that in the eye or on the disk
      edges, and that's where the microphysics are impacted and provide a
      forcing on cloud dynamics. So some of the baratropical behaviors are
      going to feedback thermodynamic order in parallel with electrical
      orders confounding this kind of discussion.


      However, there are a few ways we can get around this problem and
      frame it in such a way that we can discuss the capacitive coupling
      forcing on cloud microphysics per the China paper
      [ http://www.ichmt.org/abstracts/Vim-01/abstracts/04-01.pdf ]
      independently. And in order to get to those ways, let me digress a
      little and discuss event horizons. Event horizons will help us
      appreciate whether the models really do readily simulate the dynamics
      and thermodynamics of a tropical storm. Theoretical models of
      baratropical behaviors depend on a number of variables, and I am not
      going to get into the minutia here. I will merely state some state
      of the science assertions, and assume you are familiar with them.

      1. The DIRECTIONAL models based on baratropic behaviors are limited
      to about 5 days. That's why the NHC puts out 5 day models of where a
      storm is going to go. The limitation is due to the problem of
      turbulence, and turbulence gets to viscosity. Over time, the
      baratropical models reach an event horizon that cannot be seen. The
      directional models rely on global circulation models, where, say, the
      Bermuda High is or where the jet stream is and where it is tending.
      Models have become more complex as they attempt to look at SSTs,
      land, and even season and tropical storm climatology of previous
      tropical storms, to determine where a given storm will go.
      Climatology, of course, will over lap the eleectrical forcing, and
      SSTs have conductivity meaning—as the warmer the oceans are the more
      conductive they are, about a percent more conductive per degF in
      SSTs. The land is about a 1,000-5,000 times more resistive over the
      oceans, and so land falling models, which describe the land falling
      dynamics in terms of friction or loss of heat from the oceans are
      also missing what the difference is between a coupling between
      ionosphere and ocean and ionosphere and land. This critical omission
      is extremely important in describing the difference between a monsoon
      and a landfalling tropical storm.

      2. The INTENSITY models are based on baratropical behaviors face an
      even worse outcome. The event horizon is very very brief based on
      present models. Let me be very specific about it, too. The models
      will capture the sustained winds within the same 5 day parameters and
      project them in the general swath of the tropical storm but these
      models are extremely poor at picking up storm mesovortices – how
      these vortices will behave and what intensity they will have. The
      inner dynamics face even more complex viscosity and turbulance
      modelling. However, mesovortices behaviors are well described in
      terms of capacitive couplings, and I will be doing that. I also
      theorize that the roiling and depressurization of the surface low
      causes very specific carbonation movements, where carbonation bubbles
      to the surface and equilibrates back to ion form, and that
      specifically impacts the conductivity of the surface relative to the
      capacitive couplings described here. The cloud microphysics of a
      storm center, then is impacted in a very specific and defined way,
      and the models pick up on that in terms of sustained winds. But
      again because the baratropical approach fails to appreciate the
      capacitive couplings and the forcing on cloud dynamics, the models
      fail at predicting mesovortices behaviors, eyewall replacement
      cycling, diurnal changes, and so forth.

      3. Event horizons are not all the same. Here is an example that is
      easy. Say you want to predict when daylight will come. It is easy
      to model as the earth rotates at a specific rate and repeats its
      cycle every 24 hours. There is some complexity in the movement and
      tilt and precession of the earth, but these complexities have largely
      been solved by classical orbital physics formulations. Since we can
      easily explain when day turns to night and night to day, it becomes
      helpful to see if that predictable feature is helpful in appreciating
      what that factor does to tropical storm behaviors. This factor is
      called diurnal cycling for those who study tropical storm behaviors.
      And while relationships have been described between the way a
      tropical storm behaves during the day as opposed to night, again this
      factor is poorly described using the traditional baratropical
      approach. U/W Professor Jim Kossin is a leading scholar in the area,
      but, again, he fails to model storm behaviors in direct consideration
      of the electrical forcings which occur on cloud microphysics. See
      http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/ I turns out that there are a number
      of diurnal patterns that that can be OBSERVED real time that play
      directly into mesovortices and intensity behaviors if the complexity
      of the electrical forcing is considered. What Kossin's research by
      barotropical approach indicates is a diurnal relationship exists, but
      that appreciation varies by storm. It turns out that the diurnal
      relationship to thunderstorm activity is clear. That's because with
      the day the air heats up and as the sun sets the air cools and the
      water in the air condenses and causes relative rising and falling air—
      and convection that powers thunderstorms. You can go to
      http://www.lightningstorm.com and see this is true on almost any
      given during the summer. The afternoon almost always has the peak
      strike levels. However, with respect to a tropical storm, which has
      relatively few strikes associated with it, what electrical fields and
      currents it will experience varies not just with respect to the time
      of day but the DISTANCE from the areas where thunderstorms take place
      will change the time of day that the diurnal variance will occur.
      For instance, if a tropical storm is near Africa, and as central
      Africa is the most struck place on earth, the peak charge separations
      in the ionosphere relative to the warm and therefore conductive
      intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the diurnal change will be
      very strongly related to the thunderstorm activity over Africa. But
      as a tropical storm moves along the ITCZ , it comes to a place where
      due to the fact that the strength of a static electrical field is
      related inversely to the distance, that the capacitive couplings are
      influenced by strikes in North and South America as well as the
      strikes in Africa. As that occurs, there becomes a steady power
      source for the capacitive fields above a tropical storm and the day
      to night differences are not as clear, but still exist.


      4. The events horizons of the tropical storm season is well
      appreciated. That's the bell shaped curve that allows meteorologists
      to talk about June 1 through November 31 `hurricane season' with some
      confidence. There is the so called Cape Verde season. Yet there are
      times when June comes around and there are no storms and times, like
      this season when the `season' is active—including the fact that Cape
      Verde storms occurred this year much earlier than they have ever
      occurred. There is room for improvement and what the `season'
      really `is' improves dramatically when looking at the electrical
      features here described. The main features of a capacitive coupling
      are the conductive ionosphere and the conductive oceans. Now,
      because the oceans become more conductive on the surface, to the tune
      of a percent change in conductivity for each degree of SST increase,
      there is a clear relationship between season when the oceans are warm
      due to the tilt of the earth. Further, the ionosphere is relatively
      created by direct high frequency energy from the sun splitting oxygen
      to form ozone, which makes the ionosphere relatively conductive, and
      the angle of the sun and therefore the intensity of the high
      frequency light to the hurricane zones varies by season. Also, the
      summer thunderstorm levels feedback capacitive couplings to larger
      global features, such as the Pacific high, which then causes cold
      fronts to drop down to the continental United States (CONUS) and
      create more strikes. Eventually, the rainy `season' on the west
      coast ends and features such as the `Bermuda' high evolve. Without
      looking at cloud microphysics and electrical forcings, you will never
      know what the Pacific high or the Bermuda high are!


      5. There is the sun and activity that rotates around the disk of the
      sun, there is the solar magnetic flux, the solar cycle. There is
      space weather—cosmic ray flux. There is gravity cycles, from the
      moon and the planets, and even possibly from a twin star to the sun
      called Nemesis. These cycles, these events, can all be described
      in electrical means. Indeed, for instance, the gravity waves from
      the moon can be described in longer terms such ask the Keeling Whorf
      did, or on shorter per orbital cycling which Steve MacDonald does,
      which relies, again, on classical orbital physics to predict when the
      ocean will experience pressures that will cause the oceans to cause
      carbonation to come first out of solution and then move to the ocean
      surface and impact capacitive couplings there. It should be noted
      that ALL of these kinds of forcings will exist beyond the event
      horizon as seen only be capacitive couplings.

      6. There is the movement not of global pressures but the movement in
      general of water content in the air. This movement in particular in
      the tropics has significant DIELECTRICAL meaning and hence is another
      descriptive horizon BEYOND the event horizon of barotropical. The
      best example of this is the so-called Madden Julian Oscillation,
      which merely is a description of cloud behaviors in the Indian
      Oceans. Because the Indian Ocean tropics is warm and conductive, and
      connects Africa and the Pacific Ocean, just where water is varies the
      global electrical circuit. Similar global electrical circuit event
      horizons are ENSO, NAO, SOI index (roiling/depressurization on CO2 in
      solution in the ocean differences between Tahiti and Darwin). For
      instance, tropical storms tend to form with greater probability with
      a rising SOI to positive, which is a measure which shows increases
      the conductivities in the eastern tropical Pacific, and hence
      impacts the strength of the ITCZ. Likewise, ENSO correlates with a
      negative SOI, which is why during El Nino there tends to be fewer
      tropical storms.

      7. There is the event horizons described by conductivity changes
      brought about by marcrobiosphere. For instance, this year the
      tropical storm activity relative to the bloom in the northeast Gulf
      of Mexico (GOM) was pretty clear with the early tropical storms there
      this spring. Over larger timescales, for instance, the biosphere of
      hydrate fields comes to play off the coasts of the Carolinas and in
      the GOM, as outgassing of methane is quickly metabolized by life into
      carbonation levels in the regional oceans, and then impacts
      conductivities. Hydrology changes, sedimentation rates all impact
      the stability of hydrate fields, and proves powerful regional rain
      feedbacks based directly on the conductivities forced by the hydrate
      field ecosystems. This is where, for instance, in the thread on
      extreme weather events there was a discussion of hydro electrical
      plants and the Caracus 1999 flooding that killed 30,000, and the
      mention of the fact that the dams where constructed not recently but
      over a longer period—which failed to appreciate that the
      sedimentation over time would impact hydrate stability, and that many
      new dams have been constructed in West Africa, and those dams impact
      the biological loads in the ITCZ, which is electrically connected to
      South America. The dams constructed near the Atlantic ITCZ were so
      significant a forcing relative to the biosphere that Dr. William Gray
      had for years accurately used rainfall patterns in Africa to
      determine an event horizon beyond the baratropical, only to disregard
      that factor over the past several years following the dam
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