Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Caracus 1999--to Jim Dukelow

Expand Messages
  • Mike Doran
    Mike Doran wrote: Caracus 1999 was due to dam changes in the region, again, impacting the conductivity of the regions oceans and its ability tho support a
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 5, 2005
    View Source
    • 0 Attachment
      Mike Doran wrote:

      "Caracus 1999 was due to dam changes in the region, again, impacting
      the conductivity of the regions oceans and its ability tho support a
      surface low sustaining its electrical conductivity over time despite
      roiling and depressurization depleting ocean carbonation."

      and "But IMHO in following the dam constructions and flow and
      sediment delays, it was pretty clear that for several years the
      Carribean was impacted by the changes to the Orinoco from huge
      hydroelectric projects in the region."

      I would be interested in some detailed citations supporting these
      assertions, since they don't seem very likely to me, for the
      following reasons:

      1) My impression is that it is pretty well established that El Nin~os
      cause low rainfall in Venezuela and La Nin~as cause heavy rainfall
      there.

      2) The Guri project on the Caroni is one of the world's largest, but
      the reservoir started filling in the late 60's or early 70's and the
      project was fully operational in 1978, 21 years before the 1999
      floods and mudslides. The Macagua dam is a run of the river project
      near the confluence of the Caroni and the Orinoco. Carauchi, between
      Macagua and Guri is partly operational. The two reservoirs below Guri
      will not have much impact on flow and sediment. What sediment there
      is is being trapped in the Guri reservoir -- and has been for about
      25 years. More dams are planned on the Caroni, both above and below
      Guri and will equally have little incremental impact on sediment
      entering the Orinoco and less impact on sediment entering the North
      Atlantic, because ...

      3) The Caroni and the other right-bank tributaries of the Orinoco are
      blackwater rivers with a load of dissolved organic carbon (tinting
      them), but very little suspended material or electrolytes. Almost all
      of the sediment load in the Orinoco is dumped in the river by the
      left-bank tributaries, most prominently the Apure, which arise in the
      Andes and the northern mountains of Venezuela and drain the huge
      Venezuelan llanos. There has been little or no dam-building on those
      rivers and no significant reduction their sediment load or in the
      overall Orinoco sediment and electrolyte load. See (in English) and .

      4) From experience of living in Venezuela in the mid-60s and many
      visits to Caracas, I will assert that the slopes of the Pico Avila
      chain between the Valley of Caracas and the Caribbean were on their
      way to being a mudslide waiting to happen, with settlement moving up
      the slopes and deforestation.

      5) I find nothing in the cited Bates et al. paper to support the idea
      that formation and sustenance of low pressure systems over the ocean
      depends on electrical conductivity. Do you have some sources for that
      belief



      http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/LENNY/track_s.gif

      Hurricane LENNY (13-23 NOV)
      Storm - Max Winds: 135 Min Pres: 933 Category: 4

      What happens with the hurricane is is causes upwelling of nutrients
      and blooms follow. Blooms create increased conductive regions for
      capacitive couplings. See:

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php
      3?img_id=12782

      But in zones with hydrates, even as the ocean loses its 'charge' of
      CO2 from roiling and depressurization, the hydrate fields tend to
      regulate that CO2 back to normal levels more quickly. See:

      http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/hydrates/where.html

      Note the hydrate field just outside the Orinoco.




      Daily SOI readings positive or rising positive.


      http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
      lationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

      Year Day Tahiti Darwin SOI

      1999 316 1010.59 1010.75 -19.36
      1999 317 1008.00 1009.85 -30.10
      1999 318 1007.71 1009.60 -30.34
      1999 319 1010.75 1009.45 -10.06
      1999 320 1013.23 1010.10 1.56
      1999 321 1014.31 1010.10 8.48
      1999 322 1014.01 1009.00 13.57
      1999 323 1013.73 1007.60 20.65
      1999 324 1012.75 1008.25 10.31
      1999 325 1014.54 1008.75 18.50
      1999 326 1015.88 1009.60 21.61
      1999 327 1014.48 1008.80 17.79
      1999 328 1013.65 1007.80 18.90
      1999 329 1013.78 1006.75 26.38
      1999 330 1014.15 1006.50 30.36
      1999 331 1012.50 1006.85 17.63
      1999 332 1011.83 1005.45 22.24
      1999 333 1011.63 1005.00 23.83
      1999 334 1012.34 1005.90 22.64
      1999 335 1014.86 1006.75 22.80
      1999 336 1015.76 1008.55 18.13
      1999 337 1015.65 1007.70 21.96
      1999 338 1014.38 1008.30 12.22
      1999 339 1012.88 1007.30 9.63
      1999 340 1012.98 1007.25 10.41
      1999 341 1012.99 1007.25 10.47
      1999 342 1011.80 1006.55 7.94
      1999 343 1012.14 1005.90 13.07
      1999 344 1013.16 1005.20 22.02
      1999 345 1012.90 1006.10 15.99
      1999 346 1012.75 1006.55 12.87
      1999 347 1012.18 1006.20 11.70
      1999 348 1011.65 1005.95 10.28
      1999 349 1012.71 1006.30 13.98
      1999 350 1014.45 1007.10 18.84
      1999 351 1014.60 1006.50 22.73****
      1999 352 1012.64 1006.05 14.88
      1999 353 1011.54 1006.20 8.40
      1999 354 1011.46 1006.60 5.93
      1999 355 1013.13 1007.05 12.22
      1999 356 1012.94 1006.50 14.11****
      1999 357 1012.20 1006.40 10.80
      1999 358 1009.93 1007.55 -6.98
      1999 359 1010.09 1006.25 0.61
      1999 360 1011.19 1006.65 4.24
      1999 361 1012.30 1007.15 7.42
      1999 362 1012.46 1007.85 4.63
      1999 363 1013.09 1006.45 15.14
      1999 364 1013.19 1004.90 23.71
      1999 365 1012.84 1005.80 17.22


      http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

      Check out SSTs for dates before and after the event:


      3/30/1999

      12/21/1999

      Please examine the SST anomolies in July of the year following the
      event--seven months later:

      7/22/2000


      Appreciate that warmer is more conductive--about a percent drop in
      resistance per degF. But those SSTs are connected to macrobiological
      and electrical conditions.

      Note in the above how all of the water from the Orinoco to the West
      Africa coast was anomoly warm while water almost
      everywhere else is either cold or very cold.

      Six months before in 1999 it was the same story, anomoly cool summer
      SSTs later warm.

      Keep in mind that the hydrate fields require sedimentation to combine
      with they hydrates to cause them to not weigh less than the ocean
      around them. So over a longer period with the dams they begin to
      give off methane from previous times.

      The real key to appreciating the flooding in Caracus is the West
      African dams ALONG with the changes to the Orinoco over a period of
      time. For a rain event to be sustained it must have 'power' in
      terrestrial convection, thunderstorms, and if connected to Africa,
      electrically, by the ITCZ region, by conductive oceans, strikes from
      Africa combine with strikes over the the Americas. Africa is the
      most struck place on earth there. Plus with the positive SOI index,
      electrical conditions from the Pacific favored the event as well. If
      the oceans were warmer and the conditions were earlier in the year,
      the ionosphere would extend further north and the oceans would be
      warm enough that the convection would move more north. But time of
      year provided for capacitive couplings and no other place for that
      precipitation to go.
    Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.