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Solar Activity Report for 8/1/05

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  • David
    Sunspot region 792, formerly known as 786, is showing that it is still quite active. It launched a massive X1.3 flare on 7/30. This was a long-duration
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 1, 2005
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      Sunspot region 792, formerly known as 786, is showing that it is still
      quite active. It launched a massive X1.3 flare on 7/30. This was a
      long-duration event, and as I've mentioned before, long-duration
      flares are more likely to produce a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).
      That's when a billion or more tons of white-hot plasma leaves the sun
      travelling around a million miles an hour. When a CME collides with
      Earth's magnetic field, the effect can be dramatic, and breathtakingly
      beautiful when the auroras light up. Due to the location of region
      792 when the X1.3 flare was produced, that being close to the eastern
      limb of the solar disk, we here at Earth received only a gentle brush
      from the CME, and the effect was light. It was still, however, enough
      to set off an S-1 class solar radiation storm. You can bet that NASA
      is watching region 792 closely. In the middle of a spacewalk is not a
      good place to be in a heavy solar radiation storm. As region 792
      continues to rotate around, it gets closer to an Earth-pointing
      position. Keep an eye on it. Its complex magnetic field shows it
      still has the potential of firing off a major flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 102
      SFI : 111
      A index : 17
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 485.2 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 5.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.3 nPa

      IMF : 6.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B2

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 792 is
      capable of producing M-class flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to
      unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on 04 August
      due to a glancing blow from the CME that was associated with the M1/1f
      flare that occurred today.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      01-Aug-2005 1351Z M1.0
      31-Jul-2005 1224Z M1.1
      30-Jul-2005 0635Z X1.3
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