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David

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  • Mike Doran
    A gentleman by the name of Jim Hughes has recently been discussing space weather with me. Perhaps you know of him. He contends that when the wind speeds drop
    Message 1 of 4 , Jul 30, 2005
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      A gentleman by the name of Jim Hughes has recently been discussing
      space weather with me. Perhaps you know of him.

      He contends that when the wind speeds drop below 500 that tropical
      storms form--over that speed they don't. I saw real time this was
      true with respect to Dennis and Emily.

      Do you have any thoughts about this?
    • David
      ... I haven t heard the name before, but I ll see what I can find out about him. The solar wind speed is only part of the equation. There s the solar wind
      Message 2 of 4 , Aug 1, 2005
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        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
        <narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
        > A gentleman by the name of Jim Hughes has recently been discussing
        > space weather with me. Perhaps you know of him.
        >
        > He contends that when the wind speeds drop below 500 that tropical
        > storms form--over that speed they don't. I saw real time this was
        > true with respect to Dennis and Emily.
        >
        > Do you have any thoughts about this?

        I haven't heard the name before, but I'll see what I can find out
        about him.

        The solar wind speed is only part of the equation. There's the solar
        wind density, and the interplanetary magnetic field. The
        interplanetary magnetic field is actually an extension of the sun's
        magnetic field that is carried along by the solar wind. The IMF can
        be either north or south-pointing. If it's south-pointing, the IMF
        will essentially collide with and weaken Earth's magnetic field, and
        allow the solar wind to penetrate deeped down. That has the effect of
        enhancing geomagnetic activity.

        So, while a high-speed solar wind will pack a harder punch into
        Earth's magnetic field, that's only part of the story. I would be
        interested to know how Mr. Hughes factors in the IMF, and also the
        solar wind density.

        I would also be curious if there is any data concerning tropical storm
        formation in relation to the 11 year sunspot cycle. During the period
        of time around the cycle peaks, there would be more days during which
        the solar wind speed would be > 500 km/sec due to the increased
        sunspot activity. If Mr. Hughes's theory is correct, it seems that it
        would translate to fewer tropical storms around the solar max, and
        more around the solar minimum.

        It's a shame we don't have any tropical storm data from the time of
        the Maunder Minimum!
      • Mike Doran
        David, Here is a conversation that I had with him that really is a conversation that we ve been perculating here for years. Jim Hughes wrote: The size of the
        Message 3 of 4 , Aug 1, 2005
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          David,

          Here is a conversation that I had with him that really is a
          conversation that we've been perculating here for years.

          Jim Hughes wrote:

          "The size of the eruption...magnetic field...location etc. play a
          much bigger role then the flares x-ray size. Even a smaller class C-
          flare can bombard the earth with more particles than then the bigger
          ones sometimes. "


          I wrote:

          There is an electron belt (-), a proton belt (+)--the so called van
          Allen belts, and then the upper ionosphere (-), the lower ionosphere
          (+), and ground (-) and a notion that opposing charges are attracted
          to each other. A proton wind can essentially distort orders brought
          about by a living earth. Interestingly, I learned from you space
          weather people that the distortion in the van Allen belts following
          rapid changes in SSTs at the end of the 1997-8 El Nino were triggered
          by a solar wind change:

          Quote:

          "[A]round May 8, 1998, there were a series of large, solar
          disturbances that caused a new radiation belt to form in the so-
          called "slot region" between the inner and outer van Allen belts. The
          new belt eventually disappeared once the solar activity subsided.

          http://www.centennialofflight.gov/essay/Dictionary/RADIATION_BELTS/DI1
          60.htm

          The cloud behaviors changed so dramatically that incredibly rapid SST
          changes occurred:

          For SST changes, see:

          http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/anom.5.9.1998.gif

          http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_archive/anomnight.6.9.1998
          .gif

          http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

          Electrical change later equates to a thermal change. How does this
          happen? What is occurring? There is a device in electronics called a
          capacitor. Picture two 'T's head up against each other. Capacitors
          are used to pass alternating currents like the kind of electrical
          current in the plug that drives your computer. Capacitors are NOT
          designed to pass a direct current. One cool thing about EMFs is that
          they pass in space. Particles, too, move in space. BUT, electrical
          currents, direct ones, do not. Confused? Did you know there is a
          difference between materials as insulating to an ELECTRICAL CURRENT
          but not to a MAGENTIC FIELD? Still confused?

          When a capacitor has an applied direct current of a positive voltage
          to one end, this will cause the other end, the plate, to have the
          opposite charge. That is because the flux lines created by the ions
          on the plate, or the magnetic field of the electrical current, will
          pass across the capicitor even though the current will not.

          When it comes to an alternating current (think sine wave) in a
          perfect capacitor the signal will pass as the electrons on either end
          of the plates will always go the other way, so you get an output
          signal that they say is 180 degrees out of phase of the input signal.

          In the case of earth's belts and ionosphere, they act as coincentric
          spheres that trap conductive particles in shapes much like a virtual
          plate to a capacitor. Since a hurricane moves, and its clouds act to
          focus the field due to the differences in dielectric constants
          between air (eye) DC=1, clouds DC=80 and cold clouds DC=88, you have
          a wave features to the capacitor behaviors. Strikes in regions near
          tropical storms then act to 'power' that capacitive coupling--and
          impacts the cloud microphysics that conform to the electrical orders
          brought about by the barotropical orders.


          . . .



          http://science.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd23sep98_1.htm

          Quote:

          "Rarely seen lightning fields and purple sprites were detected in the
          eye of the hurricane by the ER-2 pilot as he flew more than 19.8 km
          (65,000 ft) above the Atlantic."


          That would be the capactive state. The direct currents, or the
          strikes, are rare:

          Quote:
          "Surprisingly, not much lightning occurs in the inner core within
          about 100 km or 60 mi of the tropical cyclone center. Only around a
          dozen or less cloud-to-ground strikes per hour occur around the
          eyewall of the storm...."


          http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G10.htm

          Consistent with this, Burke et al. [1992] has reported the detection
          of keV electrons and large electric field transients above a
          hurricane. These various observations all suggest that what is
          occurring at the ocean surface couples to the ionosphere. The
          coupling mechanisms was said by them not to be well understood, but
          it seems probable that "capacitive coupling" through the displacement
          current may drive conduction currents within the ionosphere [Hale and
          Baginski, 1987].

          Let me see if I can put this into English. Say there is a huge
          relatively positive charge above an eye in a hurricane. This is what
          has been observed, BTW by Burke et al.--because negative electrons
          charges implies nearby positive charges, and overall the ionosphere
          is positively charged relative to the surface. Now, lightning does
          not occur much inside a tropical storm. So those charge accumulations-
          -that huge, have to be held there by some force. In this case, the
          topology of the hurricane itself both prevents the charges from
          moving and at the same time provides magnetic flux lines that hold
          the charges in place.

          In this case, the ocean below the tropical storm provides a
          conductive area where opposing charges are held on the ocean surface,
          and held the more due to the fact that as the surface low roils and
          depressurizes the oceans, CO2 comes out of solution and rises to the
          surface, where it runs back to ion form, increasing the surface
          conductivity by an increased ion count in the context of the same
          electrical fields that influence the chemical equillibrium constant
          toward the production of more ions.

          Now, what does this have to do with space weather? Well, the fact is,
          after the lower ionosphere, which is positively charged, there is the
          upper ionosphere, then the proton and electron containing van Allen
          belts, also which would hold by the same capacitive couplings
          opposing charges above each successive layer. If space weather comes
          and distorts these fields, which it does, it impacts the stability of
          the ionosphere above the tropical storm, and then that instability
          impacts the cloud microphysics which are impacted by the DC coupling
          in the eye and storm convection edges, feeder bands. Again, the self
          organization is due to the fact that water has a greater dielectric
          constant over air.


          . . .

          I have a question for you.

          High frequency light would tend to cause O2 to be split into ozone at
          a higher rate. So after a period of solar activity, which may by
          itself disrupt the capacitive couplings that organize a storm, should
          the space wind drop and the event wane, there is still then a
          remaining relatively increased level of ozone, which is of course
          conductive, that may increase the conductivity of the ionosphere and
          increase the ability for an intense capacitive coupling to occur that
          has the degree of power to cause the cloud microphysics changes
          required for a tropical storm to form.

          In any event, with the next storm to come I will point out some
          specific mesovortices bahaviors tied to lightning, which but for an
          EMF connection should have NOTHING to do with such a behavior from a
          purely barotropical standpoint (especially if the strikes are in the
          CONUS in the afternoon when the tropical storm is on the night side
          of the planet. There is no other reasonable explaination.) Occum's
          razer, baby. Just sliced you.


          Then Jim Hughes wrote back:

          "Yes Mike you can have an increase in ozone production during
          increased solar activity.. not sure about the exact numbers... but
          you can also have a reversed relationship occur during large proton
          flares.

          I think I recall reading that the one last January , second only to
          the October 1989 proton flare reduced the ozone by approximately 1%.
          That's pretty big in the whole scheme of things....Major stratwarm
          followed down the road a bit at the 30 hPa level I believe it was
          also related to the QBO / solar hemisphere origin. "


          I wrote back:

          "Now, the question is is that reduction due to the proton flow
          UNIFORM. No way it is. The protons run along the closing isobars of
          the earth EMF whereas the high freq light runs to the tropics. If
          anything, the lack of ozone in the temp zones with its increased
          levels in the tropics produces capacitive couplings to a greater
          organized degree in the tropics!!!
        • David
          ... He s got it right. X-ray flux is only part of the picture. A long-duration C-class flare can pack a bigger CME wallop than a short-duration M or even X
          Message 4 of 4 , Aug 4, 2005
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            --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Doran"
            <narodaleahcim@a...> wrote:
            > David,
            >
            > Here is a conversation that I had with him that really is a
            > conversation that we've been perculating here for years.
            >
            > Jim Hughes wrote:
            >
            > "The size of the eruption...magnetic field...location etc. play a
            > much bigger role then the flares x-ray size. Even a smaller class C-
            > flare can bombard the earth with more particles than then the bigger
            > ones sometimes. "

            He's got it right. X-ray flux is only part of the picture. A
            long-duration C-class flare can pack a bigger CME wallop than a
            short-duration M or even X flare.
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