Solar Activity Report for 7/16/05
- Sunspot region 786 has rotated out of view after launching a massive
X1.2 class flare. Region 790 then got into the act by producing an
M1.0 shot, but it is also on the western limb of the solar disk.
Trailing behind region 790 is...nothing. The solar disk is blank. We
could see the sunspot number drop to zero, or close to it. Just to
keep things from getting completely boring, however, is a coronal hole
that has rotated into view. We should start seeing some solar wind
gusts from it along about the 20th. It isn't likely we'll see any
geomagnetic activity from the aforementioned flares. There were CME's
produced, but they weren't really Earth-directed. We did receive a
gentle glancing blow from them, but that's about it. The official
forecast calls for a chance of G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions, but
personally, I don't see it happening.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 16
SFI : 76
A index : 14
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 505.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.0 nPa
IMF : 7.3 nT
IMF Orientation : 5.8 nT North
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 790 remains
capable of producing an isolated M-class flare.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions may be possible with the onset of the
anticipated transient from the CME activity that occurred on 14 July.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the
period on 17 July.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
16-Jul-2005 0338Z M1.0
14-Jul-2005 2257Z M1.1
14-Jul-2005 1725Z M1.3
14-Jul-2005 1055Z X1.2
14-Jul-2005 0725Z M9.1
14-Jul-2005 0323Z M1.0