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Solar Activity Report for 7/16/05

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  • David
    Sunspot region 786 has rotated out of view after launching a massive X1.2 class flare. Region 790 then got into the act by producing an M1.0 shot, but it is
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 16, 2005
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      Sunspot region 786 has rotated out of view after launching a massive
      X1.2 class flare. Region 790 then got into the act by producing an
      M1.0 shot, but it is also on the western limb of the solar disk.
      Trailing behind region 790 is...nothing. The solar disk is blank. We
      could see the sunspot number drop to zero, or close to it. Just to
      keep things from getting completely boring, however, is a coronal hole
      that has rotated into view. We should start seeing some solar wind
      gusts from it along about the 20th. It isn't likely we'll see any
      geomagnetic activity from the aforementioned flares. There were CME's
      produced, but they weren't really Earth-directed. We did receive a
      gentle glancing blow from them, but that's about it. The official
      forecast calls for a chance of G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions, but
      personally, I don't see it happening.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 16
      SFI : 76
      A index : 14
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 505.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 4.3 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.0 nPa

      IMF : 7.3 nT
      IMF Orientation : 5.8 nT North

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 790 remains
      capable of producing an isolated M-class flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels.
      Isolated minor storm conditions may be possible with the onset of the
      anticipated transient from the CME activity that occurred on 14 July.
      The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the
      period on 17 July.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      16-Jul-2005 0338Z M1.0
      14-Jul-2005 2257Z M1.1
      14-Jul-2005 1725Z M1.3
      14-Jul-2005 1055Z X1.2
      14-Jul-2005 0725Z M9.1
      14-Jul-2005 0323Z M1.0
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