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Dennis update

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  • Mike Doran
    http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/sat_ir_p.gif http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/sat_ir_p.gif
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 8, 2005



      Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day
      Av.SOI Av.SOI

      8-Jul-2005 1014.86 1013.55 2.20 0.72 -8.25

      Long Paddock data is in. Holding neutral. ITCZ in EPAC all but gone
      as Dennis literally sucks the cloud organizing energy away from the
      storm, causing the region to go fair weather. Meanwhile, the Pacific
      high has grown from yesterday--man was it hot here today. The jet is
      back up to its pushing north than dragging south cold air to the
      CONUS from Canada, and a healthy thunderstorm is running south from
      the north mid CONUS. Really healthy for 2 am west coast time. This
      bodes really badly for maintaining intensification later in the GOM,
      IMHO. That's because by main daylight convection time this front is
      going to have a huge number of strikes associated with it, and that
      will power the storm. This will occur while the storm is crossing
      Cuba and vulnerable to weakening due to a lack of well defined
      surface coupling with the conductive ocean.


      I like to take this above link and then hand change the 20 to 19 and
      18 and so forth and then that a straight edge and toggle from the eye
      to get my own sense of direction of the storm. But if you have
      radar, you can do the same thing:


      Keep in mind that Cuba is not conductive compared to the sea to the
      south of it, and when you have a pin hole eye all of the cloud
      organizing properties come from the couplings between ionosphere and
      ocean--this makes it difficult for a powerful hurricane like this to
      cross over unless there is significant barotropical momentum for that
      to occur, and the angles here may not favor such an early cross over.
      Then you have to combine that with this new thunderstorm activity
      north of the old frontal boundary--and I am telling you, this will
      cause INTENSE microphysics changes to the north of the storm and make
      it impossible for convection to occur, the air subsists, and high
      pressure builds. That means this hurricane essentially maintains its
      track--which is hardly curving into South Florida. The issue is then
      what side of the Mississippi delta. I suppose I should hold my
      position from March 31 and say just to the west of the delta, but
      this is so soon after Cindy that I am not sure of my own projection.

      For those interested in following the strike numbers in the CONUS,
      the link is
      http://www.lightningstorm.com and it's free.
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