** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Sunspot region 786 had been looking for several days like it might
have the potential for a producing a significant flare. Earlier
today, it lived up to its potential in the form of an M-4 class flare.
That's the first significant flare we've seen in awhile. There was a
full-halo CME associated with the event, although it was somewhat
faint. Nevertheless, it's on its way here, and be looking for it to
arrive on the 9th or 10th. There are four numbered sunspot regions
visible, and region 786 is squarely in an Earth-pointing position. It
also has the potential for producing more significant flares.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 149
SFI : 123
A index : 4
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 324.7 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.8 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.6 nPa
IMF : 3.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.8 nT North
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B3
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 786 is
capable of producing an isolated M-class event.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
with isolated periods of minor storm conditions. Activity is expected
due to possible effects from the CME observed on 05 July, a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream, today's M4 halo CME, and the CME
associated with the disappearing filament centered at N07E00.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
07-Jul-2005 1629Z M4.9