Solar Activity Report for 5/11/05
- Yikes! I sort of lost track of how long it had been since my last
report. Sorry about that!
At least I do have some interesting stuff to report this time,
including flares! The sun has been producing large sunspots of late,
and one of them finally developed the magnetic complexity to generate
some significant flares. Region 758 has fired off four M-class flares
since my last report. There doesn't appear to be much in the way of
CME activity, though. The flares have all been relatively short
duration events, which are less likely to produce a CME. Sunspot
regions 758 and 759 both have the ability to create a significant
flare. Region 758 is closing in on the western limb of the solar
disk, but region 759 is a new arrival. Look for the M-class flares to
have a good chance of continuing over the next several days.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 117
SFI : 125
A index : 7
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 471.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.6 nPa
IMF : 5.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.1 nT South
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B4
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next three days.
Regions 758 and 759 (N12E33) continue to harbor a good potential for
M-class activity with a slight chance for a major or proton producing
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the
next three days.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
11-May-2005 1938Z M1.1
11-May-2005 0641Z M1.2
10-May-2005 0523Z M1.3
07-May-2005 0813Z M1.4