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2005 Hurricane Forecast

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  • Mike Doran
    First, I want to thank Steve MacDonald and cite the Keeling Whorf research. See: http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197 I see nothing signicant
    Message 1 of 3 , Mar 31, 2005
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      First, I want to thank Steve MacDonald and cite the Keeling Whorf
      research. See: http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197


      I see nothing signicant climatologically about the moon this year.

      Also the solar cycle would appear not to be significant this year.
      Or at least not significant relative to my base year.

      My base year is 2001.

      See:


      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2001H/index.html


      Discussion:

      What is a Cape Verde (CV) storm?

      Cape Verde storms respect the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of
      Africa. In a line with those islands thunderstorms roll off

      Africa. These storms are literally the most electrically explosive on
      earth--central Africa is the most struck place on earth

      and it is no fluke that the largest desert in the world is nearby.
      The capacitive couplings all but make impossible the

      formation of water and ice from water vapor--as per the China paper
      assymetries elongate forming cloud microphysics. The

      strikes are much more discharging than those in tornado alley in the
      CONUS. What happens is between the US, Central America,

      and South America and Africa, HUGE voltages of negative charges are
      taken from the ionosphere during the
      peak of the hurricane seasson and these cause continous conductive
      pathways that are charged, day and night, globally. That

      is because convection over land will not find a capacitive coupling
      that dissapates the charge concentrations from convection

      like that which is found over ocean and consequentially there are
      significant enough cummulations to cause 'shorts' from

      cloud bottom to land. That causes a positive charge to cummulate in
      the ionosphere--which then follows the capacitive

      couplings along the course of least resistance--the oceans--from one
      land mass to another above the warm, and therefore

      conductive, tropical oceans. Things like ocean current directions
      and chemical content of the oceans, and as we shall

      discuss, even the movement of the ions above the oceans matter in
      this discussion, but it is enough to say that there is a

      basic area where there is tropical weather, and that area gets that
      weather because the oceans are warm and conductive.

      Consider, for instance, that as the charges reside at the bottom of
      the cloud that electrons are SLOWLY repelled from the

      landed surface and cause an increased potential without the ability
      to 'carry away' that potential difference. In any event,

      strikes occur much more over land than over the ocean--this is
      observable science, and that causes over the land there to be

      a secondary set of electron movements from ionosphere to cloud and
      that is what charges the ionosphere, which IS conductive.

      And that conductive ionosphere is what moves huge positive voltages
      from strike zones to the oceans where capacitive coupling

      that indeed does match with the oceans occurs.

      The most significant coupling occurs right off the CV islands--
      because central Africa is the most struck place on earth.

      This is why I monitor this region for activity which impacts
      conductivities. For instance, in the past several years I have

      observed that the peak of the CV seasons have shifed to later. That
      peak, BTW, a bell shaped curved, and I observed that
      due to West Africa dams and human activity like CO2 increases, has
      SHIFTED later, about 3 weeks, which is why, for instance,

      we saw two December tropical storms in 2003. When those strikes make
      the ionosphere even more positive than it is
      typically, along the Equatorial Current in the Atlantic, where there
      is impedance values that bring electrons to the ocean

      surface relative to an earth EMF which is CREATED by this convection
      and the patterns in the first place, there is a zone

      where any forming ice crystals get "zapped". Elongated. Ice forms
      with radical assymetry. Nearby in what is called the ITCZ,

      or inter tropical convergence zone, water that is NOT forming ice and
      trapping heat along the Equatorial current moves over

      the Gulf Stream. There, the current is moving such that induction
      (impedence) goes the other way, and impedance provides a

      more positive charge to the ocean. There is less of a displacement
      field between ocean and ionosphere and the cirrus form

      with more symmetry and trap infra red heat. Any kind of distrubrance
      off the African coast will start a pulse, or wave of
      electrical activity, and because the dielectric of water is 80 times
      that of air, the electrical and the convective processes

      couple and self organize there. Tropical storms form when a POINT of
      charges form, and organize what is the traditional high

      pressure of fair weather and displacement currents with low pressures
      and convection and charge separations. It is important

      to note that the displacement currents sufficient to form a tropical
      storm is huge and such voltage levels are actually

      supported by experimental evidence. See:

      http://www.ichmt.org/abstracts/Vim-01/abstracts/04-01.pdf

      "The effects of electric field on ice crystal growth had been
      numerically discussed by Scishcheve and Kusalike6-7. They

      announced that the strength of an electric field able to change the
      ice lattice from normal ice(Ih) to cubic ice (Ic) should

      be at least 10 to the 5th kV/m [fair weather voltages are about 10 to
      the -1 k volts per meter]. However, the strength of the

      electric field used in our experiments was only 1/400 of the 10 to
      the 5th kV/m [fair weather voltages would be on order of

      1/1,000,000 of these voltages, whereas w/ tropical storm transiants
      above the eye, the transiant ratios would be similar to

      the voltages in these experiments]. Thus, the morphological change of
      the ice in this study was not caused by the ice lattice

      change. Without the electric field, the crystal growth process could
      be considered as a process whereby the water molecules

      are added one by one to the crystal lattice. This 'adding' process
      has normally the same probability in all directions, and

      leads to the formation of the symmetric ice crystal [figure omitted].
      However, when a high voltage field is applied, the

      electric field may cause different molecules in the DMSO solution
      [what should be noted is rain water is slightly acidic from

      the CO2 and other particles that get dissolved in the air--with a pH
      of about 5.6 and, of course, salt spray off the surface

      of a tropical storm will contain a number of dissolved salts that
      will move in the DC field] to exhibit different behaviors.

      The polar water molecules/clusters may be torqued and rearranged
      under the action of the electric field and forced to joining

      the lattice in a special orientation and position. Hence, different
      growth rates occur in different directions and the ice

      crystal becomes asymmetric. Under the action of an electric field,
      the water molecules may rearrange and line up end to end

      in the direction of the electric field. In viewing the crystal
      structure, this well-ordered water molecules/clusters seems

      like crystal or quasi-crystallines. In this case the water
      molecules/clusters possess an ideal situation for rapid crystal

      growth. That may be the reason why the main branches, which are
      parallel to the direction of the electric field, grow faster

      than the other branches."

      Here is a schematic to demostrate the basic electrical charge
      cumulations that organize a tropical storm:

      IONOSPHERE

      ....................-..............-
      .....................\............/
      ......................\........../
      .......................v .......v
      ........................^......^
      .........................\..../
      ..........................\../
      ..........................+.+
      ........- -----><----- + - + -----><----- -
      ............................+
      ............................|
      ............................|
      ............................v
      ............................^
      ............................|
      ............................|
      ............................-

      ATLANTIC SURFACE

      ....................+..............+
      .....................\............/
      ......................\........../
      .......................v .......v
      ........................^......^
      .........................\..../
      ..........................\../
      ...........................-.-
      .......+ -----><----- - + - -----><----- +
      ............................-
      ............................|
      ............................|
      ............................v
      ............................^
      ............................|
      ............................|
      ............................+

      Ionosphere Ocean Capacitive Coupling above Eye:

      ............................+..-..+
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................v..v..v
      ............................^..^..^
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................|..|..|
      ............................-..+..-


      Appreciating that water has a stronger dielectric constant compared
      to air, again, is also a necessary primer when talking about what you
      can pick up from the clouds, electrically, in terms of the barotropic
      patterns that are occurring. But let's keep it simple. Opposites
      attract. So a static field of positive voltages will attract negative-
      -and if you are coupling
      from ionosphere to ocean, if the ionosphere is negative, the ocean
      will experience magnetic flux that brings positive

      voltages to the surface. How the ocean and ionosphere couple, or
      connect from a capacitive description depends on the

      charges, the area of the "plates" and the dielectric between
      the "plates". Now, I realize I simplify, but there is a huge

      difference between how the fields in the ionosphere and on the ocean
      surface couple between air with
      water and air with air. About an 80 times difference.

      In 2003 there was an instance where some of these concepts are
      applicable. There were thunderstorm activities rolling off the

      coast of Africa during the time that Hurricane Fabian was active.
      These thunderstorms or 'waves' coming off the African

      coast coming in contact with an existing storm Fabian seem to die off
      and only energize Fabian. So the thunderstorms seemed

      to die off the coast and seemed to strengthen the existing TS
      downflow. Why? That's because we are talking about water ice

      forming or not in DC fields, and water vapor diffusing movements. An
      existing TS in the ITCZ dominates the hydro electrical

      organization of the region, and storms rolling off the W. African
      coast only add to the positive charge of the

      ionosphere--and those charges move much faster than barotropic
      movements and thus the defining features of, say, Fabian's
      DC field and cloud microphysics continued to organize cloud
      microphysics patterns above and beyond what a thunderstorm off

      the coast could do.

      BUT, once Fabian was over Iceland and electrically insignificant,
      Isabel could occur and did occur--and it moved west relative to
      Fabian, and the bi polar nature of the north EMF, with two nodes, one
      over NA over the Hudson Bay and one over Europe, begin to influence
      the global electrical patterns that cause these largest of storms to
      track the way they do. The Bermuda High also was pumped up,
      electrically, by Fabian, and created a stearing mechanism that wasn't
      there with Fabian.

      When the CV season is on and the storms are tracking west prior to
      reaching a Bermuda High, the clouds get modulated just offshore of
      the Carolinas and charge separations occur from Doran waves ashore
      and that fair weather strip comes NE over the North Atlantic, and the
      storms get guided. Last year, there was a whole region of highly
      conductive waters stemming from the hydrate fields off the
      Mississippi delta and the Gulf of Mexico to the hydrate fields off
      the Carolinas. Then the jet stream was moving north over Alaska and
      bringing down cold Arctic air and cold fronts occurred over the mid
      CONUS and there were HUGE strike numbers. Over 20,000 an hour strike
      numbers at times for sometimes several days. Just huge displacement
      currents over the mid CONUS and the Pacific High was electrically
      pumped up, maintaining that northern jet movement and then
      the Bermuda High was maintained, and that caused a number of CV
      storms to track west. To Florida. And Florida obliged. It's
      coastal waters were warm and relatively conductive. The H storm
      caused outgassing on the Carolina coast and there was no conductive
      pathway other than through Florida.

      This year, it is my view that the jet will not be able to track as
      far north from the Pacific. The main BIOLOGICAL feature

      is in the GOM, not along the Pacific Northwest.


      The SOI index is going to be nuetral and perhaps even a little
      positive. Why? Because SSTs off the coast of Peru are cold,

      and the impacts of the tidal wave have dissapated. (The Tidal Wave
      was a significant electrical and biological event this past winter
      because you have outgassing and roiling of nutrients, which has long
      and short term impacts on the global electrical circuit). So we won't
      see HUGE SWINGS from positive to negative SOI which brings

      extreme instabilities from the Pacific which and electrically pump up
      the Pacific High to extraordinary levels last year, but the Pacific
      High will exist with the summer's convection over the mid CONUS and
      the displacement currents that the summer brings and the ionosphere
      conductively communicates across the western CONUS. Further, last
      year there were notible algae blooms that extended from northern
      California to Washington--and made capactive couplings dominate along
      the coast, again, we saw max Pacific High conditions and the jet
      moving north. This year, SOUTHERN California has seen record rain,
      and the Pacific Northwest is in the midst of a record drought. Snow
      pack is extremely low in the NW and that will mean long term relative
      poor conductivity in the NW. That means that when thunderstorms do
      reach the CONUS, there will be less ability for capacitive couplings
      to occur that shifts the jet so extremely far north, and less Arctic
      air will be drawn south. There will be less frontal activity for
      baratropical behavior that creates strikes, and eventually that
      impacts the Bermuda High. That said, the bloom activity is along the
      north Gulf Coast, and so it won't be the cold air coming south so
      much as it will be the warm air moving north.

      That said, I don't think that this means the Bermuda High won't be in
      place--just not the same way it was last year. That is why I think
      the Carolina coast is threatened with a big storm come September.

      Due to the tidal wave discharging CO2 from the South Indian Ocean,
      there was an unusual dry period that impacted
      Eastern Africa, as the ITCZ in the South Indian Ocean was reduced for
      about 2 months after that event. The Indian Ocean is
      back to normal, but places in Eastern Africa are showing drought
      conditions. Mt. Kilomenjaro, for instance, was bare of
      snow cover on its top for the first time EVER. I look for some
      change there, so we will see the normal thunderstorms in

      Africa and CV thunderstorms pumping up the CV tropical storms, but
      perhaps not in the same way we saw this occur in the past

      year.

      Cuba is in the midst of a drought. There are flooding conditions in
      Columbia and Venezuela. These sets of conditions are

      likely to favor tropical storm activity, due to ocean microbial
      potentials--of Carribean storms tracking closer to and then

      at Cuba. Florida is getting rain during its dry season this March
      and the Carolinas are fairly dry--also not a good sign for later for
      the Carolinas. I think this means that, given the less severe
      Bermuda High, that in combination with the wet conditions in Florida
      that the Carolinas are going to see a landfalling hurricane.
      Probably a catagory 3-4.

      All spring

      Western Florida will see a GOM tropical storm early in the year--late
      June perhaps. It won't be a hurricane but a tropical

      low that will intensify once it crosses over into the Atlantic--
      perhaps get named there. There will also be an early GOM

      storm that simply moves north almost as a hybred, and will bring some
      heavy rain.

      I also expect that once the season is in full force that there will
      be a landfalling catagory 3-4 probably just west of the

      Mississippi delta that was originally energy from a CV wave. In
      other words, its origin will be from first Africa, then into

      the Carribean, not necessarily as a tropical storm, and then from the
      Western Carribean north across the GOM. I also expect

      some 'train' effects as well. Train like storms are Florida's only
      threats--it will NOT be struck by a major hurricane this

      year, EXCEPT possibly along the north Gulf coast. The places
      threatened by major storms include North Carolina, and a zone

      west off the Mississippi--during the peak of the season.

      There will be at least two significant fish storms in the Atlantic.

      Later in the year Cuba is going to get hit with a storm like
      Michelle. Later in the year the Canadian Meritines will be hit

      by storm.



      http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/qbo.data
      1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
      9 10 11 12
      2000 4.85 4.20 5.51 3.98 -0.99 -7.83 -13.13 -
      15.31 -15.52 -14.04 -15.07 -14.56
      2001 -15.69 -15.53 -15.99 -17.73 -20.99 -23.31 -24.45 -
      21.67 -14.29 -10.81 -3.88 1.48
      2002 4.64 8.00 9.32 14.03 14.16 13.26 10.05
      10.60 8.90 7.66 4.46 -0.50
      2003 -1.39 -1.44 -3.30 -8.57 -13.94 -18.01 -22.99 -
      24.64 -22.51 -20.34 -17.86 -11.38
      2004 -4.84 2.61 5.45 10.46 12.97 11.75 9.96
      8.82 7.22 7.84 4.41 2.27
      2005 -0.45 -0.88

      Dr. William Gray of CSU has long recognized the QBO is statistically
      significant--but it's like that Nirvana song about the man with a gun
      but he don't know what it means:

      http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2004/dec2004/


      Predictor 4. July 50 MB Equatorial U (-)

      (5°S-5°N, 0-360°)
      Easterly anomalies of the QBO during the previous July indicate that
      the QBO will likely be in the west phase during the

      following year's hurricane season. The west phase of the QBO has been
      shown to provide favorable conditions for development

      of tropical cyclones in the deep tropics according to Gray et al.
      (1992, 1993, 1994) and Shapiro (1989). Hypothetical

      mechanisms for how the QBO effects hurricanes are as follows: a)
      Atlantic TC activity is inhibited during easterly phases of

      the QBO due to enhanced lower stratospheric wind ventilation and
      increased upper-troposphere-lower-stratosphere wind shear,

      and b) for slow moving systems, the west phase of the QBO has a
      slower relative wind (advective wind relative to the moving

      system) than does the east phase. This allows for greater coupling
      between the lower stratosphere and the troposphere.

      or

      http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/april2005/

      This will be an easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) year. Low-
      latitude Atlantic hurricane activity is typically reduced in these
      seasons. But, this association has not worked well since we have
      entered this new era of enhanced activity that began in 1995. We do
      not anticipate the QBO exerting a significant reducing influence on
      this year's activity.


      This is a place where I can say without doubt that Dr. Gray's and
      others speculation here is fundimentally flawed.

      See for instance the state of the science:

      http://www.jisao.washington.edu/data_sets/qbo/

      http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~cwhung/qbo.html

      http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/hot/ajh/qbo.htm

      The state of the global electrical circuit as expressed by very very
      low pressure winds above the tropics are fundimentally about the
      state of the global electric circuit and how that circuit moves a
      conductor. Since the QBO is not dense AND conductive, its low mass
      can be motivated in an EMF, just like an electric motor is turned in
      a current. This movement conceptually follows Fleming's LEFT hand
      rule. Because tropical storms are electro static in organization, the
      become less likely to occur given a QBO state because it reflects
      global electrical circuit extremes.


      The question I would ask is--how are electrical currents flowing?
      Cold oceans don't mean poor electrical flow, and at the same time,
      warm SSTs don't mean anything, either, because biological activity
      from upwelling of depletion of those nutrients after warming and
      upwelling ends, can mean relative reduction in conductivity. Again,
      correlations can be drawn, but the more important question is--what
      do they MEAN?

      What La Nina means is upwelling of cold nutrient rich waters--and
      plenty of nutrients for life. That life causes increases in
      electrical activity that are the fundimental basis for tropical
      storms is supported by the fact that during
      La Nina's tropical storm activity increases.

      This is right out of the headlines:


      Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone Worse in Recent Decades

      A seasonal dead zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico developed
      occasionally in the 1800s, but it's become more intense in the last
      few decades as farmers cranked up fertilizer use, according to a new
      study of sediment samples from the Gulf. The results suggest that
      while low-oxygen waters happen naturally, modern farming practices
      have made the condition much more common.

      Coastal bottom waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico now become
      depleted of oxygen almost every summer. This happens when nutrient-
      rich Mississippi River water spreads on top of saltier seawater,
      causing populations of tiny plants called phytoplankton to explode.
      The phytoplankton die, sink, and decompose, sucking oxygen from the
      bottom waters. Fish and other animals then flee the area, and most
      creatures that remain suffocate.

      Most scientists believe that commercial fertilizer is a major cause
      of the seasonal dead zone, but the fertilizer industry and a few
      scientific skeptics claim instead that the zone occurs naturally
      (Science, 9 February 2001, p. 968). Since reliable oxygen
      measurements in the Gulf date back only to 1985, micropaleontologist
      Lisa Osterman of the U.S. Geological Survey in Reston, Virginia, and
      her colleagues developed an indirect measurement of historical low-
      oxygen conditions. They took sediment cores from an offshore region
      that frequently goes hypoxic, sliced the cores, and determined the
      age of each slice by measuring the decay of radioactive lead washed
      in with the sediments. They then counted three species of tiny
      animals called foraminifers that tolerate low-oxygen waters.
      The hardy foraminifers thrived during Mississippi River flood years
      measured back to 1823, suggesting that floodwaters carried enough
      nutrient-rich sediment to trigger hypoxia. But the three foraminifers
      have grown much more abundant in core sediments since 1960, when
      farmers began using commercial fertilizer widely on the vast farm
      lands of the Mississippi River basin. The results mean that "low
      oxygen is a naturally occurring process," but that fertilizer use has
      driven it "very far off scale," says Osterman, whose study appears in
      the April issue of Geology.

      Marine biologist Robert Diaz of the Virginia Institute of Marine
      Sciences in Gloucester Point says that the authors "may be on to
      something," but because the sediment-dating technique they used can
      be off by a few years, they're "overreaching the data." But
      micropaleontologist Pat Blackwelder of the University of Miami in
      Florida differs, saying that "the cores show very nicely that [dead
      zone] intensity is much greater over the last 50 years."

      --DAN FERBER

      It's actually something you can SEE.

      I've had my eye on strike activity there very closely as we
      approached this forecast date of March 31--because of a bloom in the
      GOM there:

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php
      3?img_id=12627


      And the feedbacks have been to bring relatively more water to those
      areas adjacent to the GOM. Here is a good link:

      http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

      There have been red tide reportings along the west Florida coast and,
      again, dry season rains in Florida. Interestingly, in 2000 there
      were similar red tide problems along the Texas coast reported during
      the fall and winter and then in the spring--Allison.

      In sum.

      The season will be active. It will look a lot like 2001 except the
      Allison storm will be closer to the algae patch--which is along the
      north Gulf States. Above average. Fourteen named storms. Five major
      storms, two threatening to the US near the Mississippi delta (to its
      west (one early one a flooding, stalling concern and the later a
      major) and the other to North Carolina and one to Cuba like Michelle,
      one threatening, going west, the Yukoton Penninsylia and the other a
      fish. The Pacific condition will be La Nina-nuetral, but, again,
      the SOI swings won't be like last year--moderate swings. Eastern
      Florida, unlike last year, will NOT see any activity all year long.
      Only the west and panhandle of Florida threatened, but not by any
      major storm. The QBO plays a role this year--largely in DIRECTION of
      storms. Consider that the ionosphere is the conductive region of the
      atmosphere that couples with the ocean to organize, electrically,
      tropical storms. Ions form most intensely in the tropics with the
      direct UV light splitting O2 and then causing O3- to form. That ion
      is then carried to the poles. If the global electrical circuit
      changes its character, then the ionosphere begins to be impacted by
      the field, and the electrical currents cause MOVEMENTS of ions, just
      like an electric engine. Applying Fleming's RIGHT hand rule is about
      current generation, the LEFT hand rule is about creating mechanical
      energy out of currents in conductors. The QBO is a wind that is
      light enough and conductive enough to be a global test of the
      character of the global electrical circuit, and that character
      impacts the character of the ionosphere--and, hence, even though we
      are are talking about a light wind way up in the atmosphere, it
      reflects a change in the hurricane behaviors. In this case, it will
      mean that a storm like Michelle is going to be very problematic for
      places like Cuba.

      Because we haven't seen a major volcano, which reduces the phase
      change temperature of cirrus and at the same time provides ions in
      clouds that the DC feilds impact alia Andrew, the main risk with
      landfalling storms will be flooding and stalling, not as much wind
      damage. For instance last year the storm that hit Haiti killed not
      by wind but by flooding.

      As always, I monitor storms 'electrically', and the best link on the
      web to do that--which remains free, is:

      http://www.lightningstorm.com

      Mike Doran
      Redding CA
      (530) 241-6885
      3/21/05
    • David
      Great work, Mike. Thank you!
      Message 2 of 3 , Apr 2 7:50 PM
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        Great work, Mike. Thank you!
      • Mike Doran
        Steady goes the race. This year was not generally (climate speaking) significant for solar activity, but specifically the solar reports during the tropical
        Message 3 of 3 , Apr 5 11:52 PM
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          Steady goes the race. This year was not generally (climate speaking)
          significant for solar activity, but specifically the solar reports
          during the tropical storm season are important at weather based levels,
          IMHO. Peak and valley times, however, I will start to be more
          concerned climatologically speaking.

          So sorry not interacting so much directly this time of year.

          Hope you are well.


          --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
          wrote:
          >
          > Great work, Mike. Thank you!
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