Solar Activity Report for 1/19/04
- ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progresss **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The past few days have been very active following the inpact of a
series of CME's from string flares generated by sunspot region 720.
Some beautiful aurora have been photographed in Canada, northern
Europe, Alaska, and the northern US, as far south as Maryland.
Region 720 is getting close to the western limb of the solar disk, so
the chances of another direct CME hit are diminishing. Nevertheless,
geomagnetic storm conditions are expected to continue on and off for
the next 48 hours before tapering off. After that, the Earth will be
drifting into a ccoronal hole high speed solar wind stream, which may
serve to kick the activity level up again.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 66
SFI : 133
A index : 47
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 658.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.1 nPa
IMF : 4.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.7 nT North
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B6
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G3 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
the S2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are expected. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
the R3 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720 retains
the potential for another major event.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at active to severe
storm levels. Storm intensity is expected to taper off over the next
48 hours, as is the 10 MeV proton event, barring another significant
solar event in Region 720.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
19-Jan-2005 1540Z M1.6
19-Jan-2005 1024Z M2.7
19-Jan-2005 0822Z X1.3
19-Jan-2005 0731Z M6.7
18-Jan-2005 1551Z M4.6
18-Jan-2005 1132Z M1.6
17-Jan-2005 0952Z X3.8
17-Jan-2005 0321Z M2.6
16-Jan-2005 2203Z M2.4