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Solar Activity Report for 1/16/05

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  • David
    ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** WOW! Sunspot region 720 has exploded with activity, and has become truly large, now
    Message 1 of 2 , Jan 15, 2005
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      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      WOW! Sunspot region 720 has exploded with activity, and has become
      truly large, now about the size of Jupiter. It is easily naked eye
      visible. Within the last 24 hours, region 720 has fired off two
      X-class flares, plus another 2 big M-class flares. Out of that came
      two solid, full-halo CME's. The next 24 hours should be very
      interesting as the CME's arrive. Needless to say, region 720 remains
      a threat for more big flares.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 100
      SFI : 145
      A index : 19
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 505.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa

      IMF : 3.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.1 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : C1

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be strong.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R3 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels.
      Region 720 has potential for M and X-class flares. An isolated M-class
      flare is also possible from Region 718.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to severe storm
      levels. Solar wind remains elevated at near 500 Km/s which may produce
      isolated active periods early on 16 January. A CME associated with
      today's long duration M8 flare is expected to impact the geomagnetic
      field late on 16 January into 17 January. Major to severe storm
      periods are possible during this disturbance. Barring another
      Earth-directed CME, the geomagnetic field will likely return to
      unsettled levels with isolated active periods on 18 January.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      15-Jan-2005 2302Z X2.6
      15-Jan-2005 2208Z M1.0
      15-Jan-2005 1423Z M3.2
      15-Jan-2005 1148Z M1.2
      15-Jan-2005 0638Z M8.6
      15-Jan-2005 0431Z M8.4
      15-Jan-2005 0416Z M1.3
      15-Jan-2005 0043Z X1.2
      14-Jan-2005 2126Z M1.9
      14-Jan-2005 1757Z M1.5
      14-Jan-2005 1606Z M1.0
      14-Jan-2005 1411Z M1.8
    • David
      What a difference a few days makes! Gone are the geomagnetic storms and solar flares of sunspot region 720, and conditions are now just about as quiet as they
      Message 2 of 2 , Jan 26, 2005
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        What a difference a few days makes! Gone are the geomagnetic storms
        and solar flares of sunspot region 720, and conditions are now just
        about as quiet as they can be. There are two small sunspot regions
        visible, 723 and 727, but neither appear to have the ability to
        generate significant flares at this time. By the way, in case anybody
        was wondering, a significant flare is a flare of M1.0 or higher.
        There are a couple of coronal holes that are rotating into an
        earth-pointing position, and we could start seeing high-speed solar
        wind gusts from them along about the 29th.

        The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

        NOAA sunspot number : 46
        SFI : 89
        A index : 3
        K index : 0

        Solar wind speed : 307.8 km/sec
        Solar wind density : 0.4 protons/cc
        Solar wind pressure : 0.1 nPa

        IMF : 4.0 nT
        IMF Orientation : 0.3 nT South

        GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A8

        Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

        Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

        Solar activity forecast :
        Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

        Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
        There is a chance of isolated active conditions at high latitudes on
        27 and 28 January. Minor to major storming is possible on 29 January
        due to the onset of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.

        Recent significant solar flare activity :
        None
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