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Solar Activity Report for 1/12/04

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Conditions are becoming more active. Sunspot region 720 is growing rapidly, and has already been the source for one M-class flare
    Message 1 of 2 , Jan 12, 2005
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Conditions are becoming more active. Sunspot region 720 is growing
      rapidly, and has already been the source for one M-class flare on the
      9th. Additionally, the solar wind speed is above the 700 km/sec mark
      as a result of the earth being inside of a coronal hole solar wind
      stream. Geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed on and off
      over the last few days, and aurora are a possibility in the higher
      latitudes. That effect should start diminishing by the 15th. Sunspot
      region 720, however, bears watching in the days ahead. It is already
      naked eye visible, and the background X-ray flux is rising, albeit
      slowly. Stay tuned to see if it continues to grow or does a region
      715-like disappearing act.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 58
      SFI : 102
      A index : 24
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 718.4 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa

      IMF : 3.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.0 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
      activity. Region 720 is the most likely source for an M-class flare
      due to it continual growth.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated
      minor storm levels possible on 13 January. Quiet to active conditions
      are expected on 14 January while quiet to unsettled conditions are
      expected on 15 January as the high speed stream diminishes.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      09-Jan-2005 0851Z M2.4
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