Solar Activity Report for 1/5/04
- Between weak CME impacts and a high speed solar wind stream, the earth
has experienced on-and-off G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions over the
last couple of days, although there has not been much to speak of in
the way of aurora. Sunspot region 715, since unleashing it's New
Year's Day X-class flare, has almost decayed completely. What little
that is left of region 715 is the only numbered sunspot region visible
at the present time. While still mildly elevated, the solar wind
speed is expected to slowly decrease over the next few days. There
is a small coronal hile that is rotating into an earth-pointing
position. Look for another round of increases solar wind speed around
the first of next week.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 15
SFI : 88
A index : 18
K index : 1
Solar wind speed : 554.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.4 nPa
IMF : 6.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.9 nT North
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux Level : A5
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance
for a C-class flare from Region 715.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm
levels. The current high speed solar wind stream is expected to
gradually decline through 06 January. Three different CMEs over the
past two days may cause occasional storm periods.
Recent significant solar flare activity :