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Solar Activity Report for 12/4/04

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** You don t see an A index of 0 with an aurora watch in effect just every day, but that s the case tonight. Conditions are quiet
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 4, 2004
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      You don't see an A index of 0 with an aurora watch in effect just
      every day, but that's the case tonight. Conditions are quiet for the
      time being, but a full-halo CME from an M1.5 flare which occurred very
      early on the 3rd is on the way, and should hit sometime before midday
      Sunday. It is predicted that geomagnetic storm conditions will be the
      result, but time will tell. There is also a coronal hole that will be
      sending some solar wind gusts our way which should arrive sometime on
      the 5th.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 43
      SFI : 97
      A index : 0
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 349.2 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 0.8 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.2 nPa

      IMF : 9.7 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.3 nT North

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Small flares could
      occur in Regions 707 and 708. An isolated M-class flare is possible in
      708 but will become less likely as the region decays.

      Geomagnetic activity forcast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet until the arrival of
      the CME associated with the M1 flare on 03 Dec. Arrival is still
      expected before mid-day on 05 Dec. Geomagnetic storm conditions are
      possible on 05 Dec as a result of the CME and the influence of an
      anticipated high-speed coronal hole stream in the same time period.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      02-Dec-2004 0006Z M1.5
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