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Solar Activity Report for 12/2/04

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch in Effect ** After a brief quiet period, activity is picking up a little bit. First of all, although it wasn t anything to write home about, we
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 2, 2004
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      ** Aurora Watch in Effect **

      After a brief quiet period, activity is picking up a little bit.
      First of all, although it wasn't anything to write home about, we did
      see some G-1 geeomagnetic storm conditions in response to the high
      speed coronal hole solar wind stream I mentioned in my last report.
      There is now another coronal hole that has rotated into an
      Earth-pointing position, and we may see some solar wind gusts from it
      on or about the 4th. In addition to the coronal holes, there has also
      been some flare and CME activity. On the 1st, sunspot region 708
      fired off an M-1 class flare, which was what I'd call a medium
      duration event. The resultant CME was not squarely Earth-directed,
      but SOHO coronagraph imagery appears to show a faint halo component to
      it. We could receive a glancing blow from it on the 3rd. As I write
      this, another M-1 flare is in progress. It looks to be about an M-1.5
      event, and the declining phase is stretching enough so that it could
      be either a medium or long duration flare. Watch this space for
      updates on any associated CME activity as SOHO images become
      available. There are three sunspot regions visible, with the
      aforementioned region 708 being the most active.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 62
      SFI : 106
      A index : 4
      K index : 0

      Solar wind speed : 437.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 0.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.2 nPa

      IMF : 2.7 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.7 nT North

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class activity is
      possible in Regions 707 and 708.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet. Activity levels
      may increase by 05 Dec as another coronal hole high-speed stream
      rotates into position.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      01-Dec-2004 0720Z M1.1
      02-Dec-2004 2355Z M1.5 (estimated)
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