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Solar Activity Report for 11/12/04

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  • David
    ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** There is still a chance, albeit a diminishing one one, for aurora tonight. A CME was
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 12, 2004
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      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      There is still a chance, albeit a diminishing one one, for aurora
      tonight. A CME was expected to strike Earth's megnetosphere today.
      Either it missed us, or it did hit but had no appreciable effect. At
      any rate, the high geomagnetic activity seen over the last few days is
      declining. Still, there might be aurora visible tonight in the higher
      latitudes, so keep an eye out. Sunspot region 696, which has been the
      source of the recent activity, hasn't fired off a significant flare
      since the X-2 class flare on the 10th, and it is also rotating over
      the western limb of the solar disk. In fact, the background X-ray
      flux has been declining rather dramatically as region 696 begins
      rotating out of view. Sunspot region 701 is just now rotating into
      view, but has been quiet so far. We should have a better idea of
      region 701's characteristics by the beginning of next week.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 70
      SFI : 95
      A index : 22
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 549.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa

      IMF : 5.6 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.9 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B2

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G1 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
      the S2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Solar
      radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class
      flares are possible.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 13
      November. Predominantly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 14
      and 15 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton event in progress now
      is expected to gradually decline to below the event threshold on 13
      November.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      10-Nov-2004 0213Z X2.5
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