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Solar Activity Report for 11/9/04

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  • David
    ** G-3 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The last 48 hours have been amazing, and
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 9, 2004
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      ** G-3 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The last 48 hours have been amazing, and aurora have been seen and
      photographed as far south as NC and OK. The fun started with the
      impact of the CME from the M-5 flare that occurred several days ago.
      The interplanetary magnetic field swung hard south, at one time
      reaching 41 nT South. The result was a G-5 (extreme) geomagnetic
      storm, the highest category. That happened on the night of the 7th.
      That was followed by another CME shock arrival earlier today, which
      touched off a G-4 geomagnetic storm. That event is still happening
      now, although it has subsided slightly to the G-3 level. The cause of
      all of the action has been a long string of powerful flares created by
      sunspot region 696. Region 696 is getting close to the western limb
      of the solar disk, but it is not going quietly. Today saw an M-8 and
      an X-2 flare. At least one, and maybe both, of those flares fired off
      a CME. The CME from the M-8 flare had a definite halo component to
      it. It is expected to arrive sometime on the 11th. If you're in an
      area with dark skies and good visibility, definitely keep a watch out
      for aurora over the next two or three days.

      http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01nov04.htm

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 90
      SFI : 127
      A index : 91
      K index : 7

      Solar wind speed : 739.0 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 6.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 4.6 nPa

      IMF : 29.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 25.2 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B7

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been severe. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G4 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
      the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R2 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 696 is
      expected to produce M-class flares, and X-class flares are possible.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm
      conditions on 10-11 November. A CME shock associated with the M8 flare
      observed today should arrive on 11 November. Activity should subside
      to quiet to active levels on 12 November.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      10-Nov-2004 0213Z X2.5
      09-Nov-2004 1719Z M8.9
      08-Nov-2004 1549Z M2.3
      07-Nov-2004 1606Z X2.0
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