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Re: Mitch II--6 weeks early

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  • Pawnfart
    Of interest is with the storm this far south, so close to the Equator, Coriolis is greatly reduced. The idea is at the equator the earth spins at 1,000 mph,
    Message 1 of 702 , Aug 18 12:08 AM
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      Of interest is with the storm this far south, so
      close to the Equator, Coriolis is greatly reduced. The
      idea is at the equator the earth spins at 1,000 mph,
      and at NY about half that. It is the rate difference
      that explains coriolis, which indeed is very strong
      near NY. But real close to the Equator the ratio of
      speeds is about the same, and coriolis is weak. That
      means slow circular wind speeds.<br><br>But this storm
      is already a monster. Why? Because its forward speed
      is great and WEST. By itself it is inducting a huge
      current and enhancing a huge amount of electrical energy
      and causing the cirrus to trap almost all IR
      radiation.<br><br>Indeed, not that the circulation has closed, half of the
      cirrus enhancement is lost if the storm would stall. But
      here is the catch. I predicted a staller and flooder
      first of all because we have a low volcanic SOx year,
      so phase temps of cirrus aren't reduced, but mostly
      because I knew this was a post flaring or El Nino event
      year, and I knew that this was going to pile up very
      warm anomaly waters where Central and South America
      join in the East Pac. And, again, if you check the SST
      anomalies, this water is very warm. Above it where the storm
      could go, the water is cold, and just south of Cuba, on
      fire--real warm.<br><br>So what? Well, as Chantel approaches
      the western Carribean, she is going to get max
      western enhancement over he warm waters, but where she
      should get cirrus reduction the waters are cold and
      won't conduct currents AND the low pressure should suck
      in cirrus from the hotspot just to her south. In
      short, it is a cirrus making MACHINE.<br><br>I don't
      think it is going to stall or flood like Mitch, but it
      is most certainly going to slow down dramatically.
      Furthermore, it already is a huge storm. Don't let the high
      pressure or low wind speeds fool you. The western
      movements of the cloud mass have created huge cirrus
      enhancement and convection, and allowed it to survive the
      area of generally eastern currents and cooler waters
      in the eastern Carribean. So some of the energy that
      it took just to get Mitch started has been created
      from the burst out of Africa and just its western
      movement with this much speed. And she will slow down--big
      time. Once she gets close enough to that hot spot in
      the East Pac, the winds from that will be going
      northwest, and she is going to spin and move north, and
      coriolis will become a better ratio factored, and the
      problem of southern quadrant will be closed and we have a
      bomb.<br><br>Folks, this is a REALY big storm. I say CAT 4 and major
      flooding to Central America, and then it will visit the
      Gulf and some lucky state there, depending on winds.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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