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Solar Activity Report for 11/7/04

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Sunspot region 696 continues to be very active, and has fired off a series of strong M-class flares, the strongest being an M9
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 6, 2004
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Sunspot region 696 continues to be very active, and has fired off a
      series of strong M-class flares, the strongest being an M9 event.
      Some of the flares have been long duration, and there is a sting of
      CME's on the way. The M9 flare launched an impressive full-halo CME.
      The first of the bunch could arrive in the wee hours of the morning
      on the 7th. That one came from the M5 flare mentioned in my last
      report. There is a decent chance for geomagnetic storming and aurora
      tonight. Skywatchers in the higher latitudes should keep an eye out.
      Solar activity is expected to remain high, and region 696 could
      produce more strong flares.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 106
      SFI : 129
      A index : 1
      K index : 0

      Solar wind speed : 353.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 8.8 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.9 nPa

      IMF : 8.3 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.8 nT North

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B4

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R2 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels for
      the next three days due to the complexity of Region 696.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm
      levels. The ACE spacecraft indicates that there should be a shock
      passage early on 07 November allowing for minor to major storm
      conditions due to the full halo CME resulting from the M5 event on 03
      November. A weaker shock may also arrive later on 07 November due to
      the long duration C6/Sf event that resulted in a partial halo CME that
      occurred on 04 November at 0905Z. Another potential shock passage is
      expected on 08 November resulting from the combination of the M2 and
      M5 x-ray events and associated partial halo CME that occurred
      yesterday could produce periods of minor storming. The M9/2n event
      that produced yet another partial halo CME that occurred today should
      arrive Earth on 09 November in tandem with the onset of a recurrent
      coronal hole high speed stream which may result in periods of minor to
      major storm conditions. A slight chance of a greater than 10 MeV
      proton flux event in association with a major flare from Region 696
      remains worthy of note.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      06-Nov-2004 1953Z M1.4
      06-Nov-2004 0157Z M3.6
      06-Nov-2004 0057Z M5.9
      06-Nov-2004 0034Z M9.3
      05-Nov-2004 1922Z M1.2
      05-Nov-2004 1130Z M4.0
      04-Nov-2004 2309Z M5.4
      04-Nov-2004 2229Z M2.5
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