Solar Activity Report for 11/7/04
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Sunspot region 696 continues to be very active, and has fired off a
series of strong M-class flares, the strongest being an M9 event.
Some of the flares have been long duration, and there is a sting of
CME's on the way. The M9 flare launched an impressive full-halo CME.
The first of the bunch could arrive in the wee hours of the morning
on the 7th. That one came from the M5 flare mentioned in my last
report. There is a decent chance for geomagnetic storming and aurora
tonight. Skywatchers in the higher latitudes should keep an eye out.
Solar activity is expected to remain high, and region 696 could
produce more strong flares.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 106
SFI : 129
A index : 1
K index : 0
Solar wind speed : 353.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 8.8 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.9 nPa
IMF : 8.3 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.8 nT North
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B4
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R2 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels for
the next three days due to the complexity of Region 696.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm
levels. The ACE spacecraft indicates that there should be a shock
passage early on 07 November allowing for minor to major storm
conditions due to the full halo CME resulting from the M5 event on 03
November. A weaker shock may also arrive later on 07 November due to
the long duration C6/Sf event that resulted in a partial halo CME that
occurred on 04 November at 0905Z. Another potential shock passage is
expected on 08 November resulting from the combination of the M2 and
M5 x-ray events and associated partial halo CME that occurred
yesterday could produce periods of minor storming. The M9/2n event
that produced yet another partial halo CME that occurred today should
arrive Earth on 09 November in tandem with the onset of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream which may result in periods of minor to
major storm conditions. A slight chance of a greater than 10 MeV
proton flux event in association with a major flare from Region 696
remains worthy of note.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
06-Nov-2004 1953Z M1.4
06-Nov-2004 0157Z M3.6
06-Nov-2004 0057Z M5.9
06-Nov-2004 0034Z M9.3
05-Nov-2004 1922Z M1.2
05-Nov-2004 1130Z M4.0
04-Nov-2004 2309Z M5.4
04-Nov-2004 2229Z M2.5